1/ In this @HiddenForcesPod, @M_Heffernan and I explore our unhealthy relationship with uncertainty by tackling some of the misconceptions we hold about predictability & the dangers associated with trying to extrapolate from the past an unknowable future.
2/ History, after all, is an incomplete data set; we know this because the future is full of things that have never been here before.
New technologies, new drugs, new genes, new people, & new horizons that were previously unimaginable.
New technologies, new drugs, new genes, new people, & new horizons that were previously unimaginable.
3/ And yet, whether it’s the on-air financial host pumping & dumping stocks to his viewers or the policymaker forecasting unemployment figures & growth rates, false prophets abound.
By speaking in certainties, they exploit our fears, providing answers where only doubt can exist.
By speaking in certainties, they exploit our fears, providing answers where only doubt can exist.
4/ If we want to successfully navigate the unknown challenges to come, we need to begin by acknowledging that we cannot plan for them.
The best we can hope to do is prepare, and fortunately for us, @M_Heffernan is just the person to help us do it.
The best we can hope to do is prepare, and fortunately for us, @M_Heffernan is just the person to help us do it.
