Shocked, shocked to see this out of Sturgis. (/sarcasm) 
So I've been thinking about this a lot. Here's why we're unlikely to ever get a real, clear understanding of the COVID-19 spread caused by Sturgis. (thread)
In a nutshell, Sturgis is bigger than our nationwide COVID-19 testing and contract tracing effort, and it's likely any evidence of spread from Sturgis will fall through the cracks in that patchwork-y system.
A few key numbers: Sturgis rally organizers estimate more than 460,000 people attended. Not clear on where they're from, but considering closed borders and flight restrictions, vast bulk are from US states. RCJ story here on the numbers: rapidcityjournal.com/news/local/ral…
So #1: The scale of Sturgis is bigger than the coordination of our national testing and contact tracing regime, because attendees came from all over, and there ISN'T a national testing and tracing system. Each state is very much running its own show.
Now, states health officials do contact other states for help contact tracing of a positive individual traces their activities back to other states. But there are HUGE holes in that process, as follows:
(And thanks to @mondialec1 for the direct link, yes, here's a good data presentation showing the flow of traffic into Sturgis:)
So, holes in testing, tracing process:
You have to count on positive tests getting turned around soon enough to matter. This has been a big issue recently esp. with nat'l labs. Slow test results make contact tracing a near pointless task - you're working from too far behind.
You have to count on positive tests getting turned around soon enough to matter. This has been a big issue recently esp. with nat'l labs. Slow test results make contact tracing a near pointless task - you're working from too far behind.
But let's assume, say, a Texas contact tracer gets in touch with SD anyway, saying hey, our positive case was symptomatic in SD 14 days ago. That's the quarantine/self-check window for any potential contact. The window is now closes, i.e. no reason to send out a public notice.
SD DOH has been very careful to only send out potential exposure notices that are actionable by the public. We in the media have frequently ID'd positive cases in local business/schools, that are never reported to the public by DOH because they're not considered a public risk.
So even if there was exposure, transfer and spread, SD DOH may not/doesn't have to announce it. Usually if they provide such info, it's from highly public outbreaks such as large employers like meat plants, nursing homes or youth daycamps.
Maybe SD DOH does announced known COVID-19 case numbers linked to Sturgis. I hope they do. But they're not required to do so, and even they may be dealing with incomplete information, even weeks later, due to our patchwork testing and tracing system, and test delay issues.
To sum up, we'll probably never really know the effect of the Sturgis rally as a potential spreader event for COVID-19. Any spread is too diffuse, and our test and trace system too broken to effectively track cases and exposures in a timely way.
In the meantime, Sturgis will be considered by some as a HORRIFIC MISTAKE OF A SPREADER EVENT and by others as an example of FREEDOM DEFEATING OVERBLOWN COVID FEARS. And I won't be able to say who is right or wrong. But hey, we'll report what we can. That's the job. (end thread)
