It is increasingly clear that Chinese government officials- locally in Wuhan and nationally in Beijing- sought to hide information and downplay the seriousness of the coronavirus outbreak in the critical first weeks of the pandemic. nytimes.com/2020/08/19/wor…
Wuhan officials hid information from national authorities. A recent U.S. intelligence community assessment concluded "Officials in Beijing were kept in the dark for weeks about the potential devastation of the virus by local officials in central China."
At the same time "senior officials in Beijing, even as they were scrambling to pry data from officials in central China, played a role in obscuring the outbreak by withholding information from the World Health Organization."
In addition, a combination of the weak standing of China's CDC, a poorly implemented national hospital surveillance system, and local officials "intent on hiding bad news" meant Wuhan officials did an "end-run" around public health authorities. wsj.com/articles/china…
In sum, while the technological, public health, and scientific advances in China have been considerable since the days of the original SARS, the political system and skewed incentives of officials remain serious challenges to rapid action on emerging infectious diseases.
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On a positive note, 8% of adults 65+ say they got the booster in (approx) 3 weeks since its release, and close to 40% more say they plan to get it as soon as possible.
The groups among fully vaccinated adults most likely to express they aren’t sure if the bivalent booster is recommended for them include: rural residents (54%), Hispanic adults (51%), and those without a college degree (49%).
Wonderful: a malaria vaccine is now recommended for use in high burden areas, and could save tens of thousands of lives a year who.int/news/item/06-1…
(For sense of the timing: initial Phase 3 trial results for this vaccine were published a decade ago!) nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NE…
WHO and others careful to note the vaccine is best positioned as one component of a comprehensive public health approach to malaria prevention. It is burdensome (4 shots over 18 months) and perhaps 50% effective in preventing severe malaria in kids.
Unclear how quickly it can be rolled out in African countries given the resources focused on Covid-19 vaccine distribution.
“We’re really going to have to see how the pandemic unfolds next year in terms of when countries will be ready" nytimes.com/2021/10/06/hea…
In 2022, protein-based COVID-19 vaccines could be what mRNA vaccines have not been for many lower-income countries: accessible and relatively easy to manage. Slower out of the gate than other vaccines, there are now several candidates on the near horizon. 1/
They are refrigerator stable, have promising safety profiles, and efficacy that in many cases rivals mRNA vaccines. Protein vaccines are also readily scalable, with good prospects for technology transfer 2/ nature.com/articles/d4158…
Novavax, delayed for months with manufacturing and supply woes, recently filed for authorization in several countries and WHO for its protein-based vaccine. COVAX has already purchased more Novavax doses (900 M) than any other vaccine in its portfolio 3/ launchandscalefaster.org/covid-19/vacci…
Over 7 billion Covid-19 vaccine doses have been produced globally to date, with >1.35 billion more doses produced each month now.
Sinovac and Sinopharm produce the greatest number of vaccines monthly, with Pfizer and AstraZeneca not far behind. 1/
By the end of this year the world is likely to produce over 12 billion vaccine doses of all vaccine types.
By June 2022 the number produced could reach double that – 24 billion doses (assuming all goes well, and it usually doesn’t) 2/
Even after reserving doses for boosters, Western countries are likely to accumulate large stockpiles of vaccines over the coming months, perhaps as many as 1.2 billion doses by the end of this year.
These “surplus” doses could be redistributed to lower income countries. 3/
Keeping a wary eye on Covid trends in South America. The good: cases/deaths there have come down from devastating peaks a few months back, and there’s progress on vaccinations. The bad: Delta may have only begun to circulate, and questions about vaccine efficacy
Most countries in the region have fully vaccinated between 20 and 40% of their populations; Chile and Uruguay stand out, with >70% fully vaccinated. Countries use a mix of vaccines, mostly Chinese inactivated vaccines (Sinovac and Sinopharm), plus some Pfizer & AstraZeneca
Chinese vaccines have lower effectiveness vs symptomatic disease but protect vs hospitalizations and death.
Chile estimated the Sinovac VE vs. symptomatic Covid at 58%, and 86% vs hospitalization. For Pfizer: 88% and 97%, AZ: 68% and 100%, respectively minsal.cl/wp-content/upl…
Some initial thoughts on full FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine and what it might mean for vaccine acceptance in the US, based on @KFF polling and policy work
A commonly referenced finding from KFF's vaccine monitor is that 3 in 10 unvaccinated people reported they'd be more likely to get the vaccine upon full FDA approval kff.org/coronavirus-co…
Still, I don't think it means that if unvaccinated people hear the news about full FDA approval 3 in 10 of will all of a sudden decide to get the shot based on that alone.