Thread by @jpkeates

Someone in the ministry of justice must know how many possession claims have been issued and are currently stayed.
And they're not saying anything.
But the numbers they have published seem to say there's no huge backlog waiting to bring about a huge wave of homelessness.
1/12

Between April and July (inclusive), there have been 3022 possession claims escalated to courts by landlords, 44% of which are from private landlords.
That's roughly 10% of the figure for the same period last year.
2/12
#landlords
#possessive
#Section21

I have some issues with the statistics (which are from the ministry of justice) because in the same period there have been 658 possession orders and 268 bailiffs warrants - when this activity shouldn't have been possible.
3/12

So it is possible the figures are the result of disruption of the court service administration and reporting and are wrong.

But they're the best we have.
Oh, and England and Wales only
4/12

The median time* between a claim and a possession order was 6.4 weeks in the final quarter of 2019, so most 2019 cases would have been heard pre-lockdown.
5/12

The government figures show a median rather than an average because there are a number if very old historic cases (particularly for mortgage possessions) that distort averages.
While these are fewer in landlord possession cases, the approach is common to all stats.
6/12

In the period Jan to March 2020, there were 24,321 claims for possession made. 24% were private landlords. The median time between claim and order was 6.6 weeks, so about 1/3 of these claims should have reached the hearing stage before the lockdown.
7/12

So, theoretically, there are about 20,000 stayed new claims in the pipeline - which is fewer than a normal quarter. The huge drop in claims in the last quarter is essentially topped up with claims not actioned in the first.
8/12

And if I'm a little off in the figures - because Christmas distorts the 2019 performance - it's still not that abnormal/ terrible.

There can't be a huge increase in the number of possession orders because there aren't enough claims in the pipeline.
9/12

Then the number of hearings possible per day will be half of what it used to - because of social distancing and lack of suitable facilities (that's a guess, but the capacity is bound to be lower) and courts will want a preliminary review before an actual hearing.
10/12

So there will be fewer cases per day all taking longer to deliver a decision.

So fewer possession orders will be made in any period going forward than at the same period last year, unless more judges and more courts are employed. 11/12

Unless the statistics are wrong, or (more plausibly) I am.
gov.uk/government/col…

12/12