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Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
@Sustainable2050
Aug 21, 2020 • 49 tweets • 21 min read • Read on X
Two tropical depressions now forecast to simultaneously hit the US as hurricanes Laura and Marco, on Tuesday evening.
There's Laura:
It now looks like Marco will reach Texas on Tuesday, as a tropical storm. Laura could hit neighboring Louisiana as a hurricane a day later, after moving over Hispaniola and Cuba as a tropical storm. ImageImage
#TSLaura has arrived on Puerto Rico.
Marco now going towards Louisiana too:
Laura still on same track: that means the Louisiana coast could be hit by two hurricanes within 3 days! Image
This is bizarre. The current landfall forecasts for hurricanes (to be) Marco (Monday) and Laura (Wednesday) are barely 100 km (or miles) apart. Both very close to New Orleans.
(Yes, forecast uncertainties still big). ImageImageImage
#Marco just became the first of the two to reach hurricane status: sustained winds now 75 mph (120 km/h). Expected to make landfall near New Orleans by the end of Monday afternoon. Image
#Marco has now weakened a bit, due to strong ‘shear’ (differences in wind speed with altitude), and may skim the US Gulf coast as a tropical storm. Image
#Laura, however, has ‘survived’ its interaction with Hispaniola, and it looks like it will strengthen a lot before reaching Louisiana as a cat. 2, perhaps even stronger, hurricane on Wednesday evening. Now drenching Cuba. Image
Louisiana’s Governor gets it:

Louisiana governor puts state on path to net-zero emissions by 2050 smartcitiesdive.com/news/louisiana…
#Laura expected to become a hurricane today, and forecasts for its strength are gradually going up. Now expected to reach wind speeds of 110 mph (175 km/h) before hitting the Louisiana coast on Wednesday evening. That would make it a high-end cat. 2.
nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi…
#Laura just became a hurricane, with sustained wind speeds of 75 mph (120 km/h). Forecast still moving up: now expected to be a major (cat. 3) hurricane with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) upon landfall, near the Louisiana/Texas border. nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M…
Storm surge caused by #Laura can push up water to 2.7-3.9 m above the ground, and can cause flooding up to 50 km from the coast. https://t.co/K0ICLHjMm1
Evacuations starting.
(Totally unscientific, but I'm afraid this hurricane Laura will become stronger than now forecast. To check on Thursday.)
Hurricane #Laura 20 minutes ago. Winds last reported were 145 km/h (90 mph), and forecast nudged up to 190 km/h (120 mph) before landfall: a cat. 3 hurricane. Image
Hurricane #Laura rapidly intensifying now. Winds already at 165 km/h (105 mph), that’s a cat. 2 hurricane. Further strengthening expected today, before landfall. Image
Exactly what I feared (3 tweets up in the thread): #Laura now expected to become a cat. 4 hurricane, with wind speeds of 130 mph (210 km/h) before landfall this evening! Image
Hurricane #Laura has grown really big too. Now filling most of the Gulf, all the way from the Yucatán peninsula in Mexico to the Louisiana coast. Image
Hurricane #Laura now already has 200 km/h (125 mph) winds; expected to intensify to 230 km/h (145 mph)!
https://t.co/JwwQ8gHNdy
“Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.“
https://t.co/R6PeUfKxTy
Oh man, this hurricane #Laura looks unbelievably strong. Image
And indeed: #Laura now already a cat. 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph (225 km/h). Disaster in the making. https://t.co/6n5ElLCmkR
Just 2.5 days ago, #Laura wasn’t even a hurricane yet. Rapid intensification over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
If #Laura’s storm surge (seawater pushed up by the force of the hurricane winds) coincides with high tide, it can now reach up to 6 meters (20 feet) above ground level. Image
Some further warnings from @NHC_Atlantic:
”Catastrophic wind damage expected where Laura's eyewall makes landfall tonight”
Up to 380 mm (15 inches) of “rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding“
nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M…
And, you guessed it, this rapid intensification is enabled by very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico. 83-87 F = 28.3-30.6°C.
#Laura, powered by climate change. https://t.co/8EkUMutPeA
#Laura, powered by climate change. https://t.co/a6ZILeuiwB
Pressure in #Laura still dropping. Usually a sign of (further) strengthening.
#Laura, powered by climate change. https://t.co/wXoBUt4Wqk
#Laura, 20 minutes ago. Relentless. Image
#Laura in true color, at 2020 GMT = 4:20 pm EST.
The sides of one square are over 500 km (300 miles). Image
Sustained wind speeds in cat. 4 hurricane now 230 km/h (145 mph). Some further strengthening to 240 km/h (150 mph) forecast.
Lots of warnings, but the ‘unsurvivable’ storm surge still stands out. nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M…
Rainfall totals from hurricane #Laura now bumped up to 200-300 mm, with isolated totals up to 450 mm:

Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 18 inches.
You don’t want to be in Lake Charles, Louisiana, now. I hope the 78,000 people living there (and another 150,000 in the metro area) managed to evacuate in time. Image
A hurried evacuation of a half million Texas and Louisiana residents ahead of Hurricane Laura has clogged highways. reuters.com/article/us-sto…
Hurricane #Laura now making landfall at Cameron, Louisiana, as a cat. 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 240 km/h (150 mph). https://t.co/9FKcxxMRZx
#Laura is among the strongest hurricanes ever to make landfall on the US Gulf coast. https://t.co/O4DYSX2g2U
30 hours ago, #Laura was still forecast to arrive as a cat. 3 hurricane, with wind speeds of ‘only’ 185-190 km/h. But the circumstances (warm water, low shear) were ‘perfect’ for strengthening, and I had the strong feeling that it could become worse. https://t.co/o42M5MgLsb
This could still be a coincidence, but global warming has pushed up sea temperatures so much, that we’re at the edge of what forecasters have seen. We’re in uncharted territory.
That said, @NHC_Atlantic has the experts. Listen to their forecasts, and heed their warnings.
https://t.co/KJ750Qr0gj
680,000 customers without power in Texas and Louisiana, due to hurricane #Laura. That probably means around 1.5 million people experiencing a blackout, in combination with storm damage, flooding, etc. Image
#Laura, powered* by climate change.

*) sorry, exacerbated, @KHayhoe ;) https://t.co/wVyWj9gvnM
Lake Charles, Louisiana, before, during, and after #Laura.
Via @helgavanleur

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More from @Sustainable2050

Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Jun 8
Nasty climate tipping point in sight, especially for NW-Europe! "Nothing drastic will happen at the moment we cross it - which might be soon - but after that the collapse of the current will be unstoppable." And could lead to rapid regional cooling, not so far away from us.
This is a simplified map of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), bringing heat from the South Atlantic, via the Caribbean to the European side of the North Atlantic. On cooling there, the water sinks to 2-3 km depth and takes the cold to the South. Image
Without the AMOC, the North of Europe - especially Iceland, Scandinavia, and Britain - would be much colder than it now is. Image
Read 43 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
May 16
Agreement between right-far-right Dutch coalition parties published now. Thread with some points on climate and energy. These are the plans, but execution will of course be key. Wilders and his PVV are in full climate denial, like much of the EU's far right.
1/
- Stick to existing agreements, no higher ambitions than EU policy
- No rules for improving energy efficiency of owner-occupied homes. Obligation (from 2026) to install heat pump on replacing gas-fired heating boiler canceled.
- End of EV subsidies in 2025.
2/
- Study how zero-emission zones in cities kan be delayed to create exceptions for entrepreneurs, but creating such zones remains decision of municipality.
- An end to subsidies for Bio-energy with CCS (for negative emissions) as soon as possible.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Mar 16
Starting a week-long business & pleasure trip to Spain, by train!
Hope to be in Barcelona this evening :)
I'll keep you posted in this🧵 Image
The plan for today: Utrecht - Rotterdam - Paris - Barcelona. The tricky part is changing trains in Paris. Theoretically 2 hours should be more than enough to get from Paris-Nord to Gare de Lyon (the rail planner irresponsibly proposed 1 hour), but @Eurostar is often delayed (2/n) Image
Made it to Rotterdam, at least ;)
Bit very early, but hey, why hurry on a Saturday morning? (3/n)
Image
Image
Read 69 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Jan 28
Reading the Dutch "Action agenda congestion low-voltage grids".
The accelating energy transition already brings grid issues here. In the low-voltage distribution grid, the growing number of solar panels (PV), electric cars (EV) and (hybrid) heat pumps ((h)WP) is the challenge. Image
Without measures, a large and growing number of households would experience periods with too high or too low voltage (over- resp. onderspanning) or risk of grid failure. Image
Measures are categorized in:
1) accelerating grid expansion
2) more efficient use of the grid capacity
3) saving energy as much as possible.

1) already gets a lot of attention, and each of the three main DSOs plans to spend around €1 billion/year. Many hurdles though.
Read 16 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Nov 14, 2023
"Transition doesn't make energy cheaper, but to the contrary, significantly more expensive"
Headline in Dutch @Volkskrant yesterday, 9 days before the elections here. "Consumers and companies will pay 92% more for electricity and natural gas by 2030".
Hmm, let's look into that. Image
Firstly, as others have already pointed out too, it's a comparison between 2020 and 2030. In 2020, energy was cheap: Covid reduced demand, and Russia hadn't started its energy war and attack on Ukraine yet.
Compared with 2023, not a lot would remain of the "+92%". Image
Looking into the forecasted price increase 2020-2030 it has three components:
1. Tax (Belasting) +€5 billion. That'd be a political choice, which has little to do with the energy transition.
2. Grid (Netbeheer) +€5 billion. Increase to be expected indeed.
But ... Image
Read 17 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Oct 7, 2023
Today it's Scotland.
#ClimatechangeisWaterchange
Install bigger pumps. Oh, and reduce emissions to zero, asap.
Seems like the right decision.
(West of Glasgow, Scotland)
Read 4 tweets

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