My Authors
Read all threads
If we can only have 6 people in our houses, how can we have 30 children in a classroom? It’s a reasonable question. But it’s not a contradiction; in fact, these measures are connected and coherent. The following explanation is a simplification, but illustrates the principle. 1/8
The virus spreads by finding ways to transmit from the very small number of people who have it (fewer than 1 in 2000 right now) to all those who are susceptible to it. What matters is the total number of contacts at a population level. 2/8
We have about 5 million people in the country. If each of us had, as we would have this time last year, say 10 close contacts per day, that’s 25 million opportunities per day for the virus to transmit. (5 million x 10 contacts / 2 to remove duplicates. 3/8
About one million of the population are of school-going age. If the other 4 million reduce their close contacts to, say, just 2 per day, we are down to 9 million close contacts per day. We have reduced the opportunities for the virus to transmit by more than 60%. 4/8
If we also reduce the risk that our close contacts might lead to transmission (physical distancing, hand/respiratory hygiene face coverings where appropriate) even if these measures only reduce the risk by half then we have reduced the risk of transmission by about 80%. 5/8
If the basic reproduction number of the virus is between 3 and 5, then this 80% reduction in transmission will be enough to bring R below 1, and the number of infections will decline. 6/8
Simply put, if older adults starve the virus of opportunities to transmit (limiting our contacts and being careful) the young can have the higher numbers of contacts that classroom education requires; the sum total of all contacts for the population level remains low. 7/8
The risk is even lower if (i) the level of disease in the community is minimised (ii) appropriate precautions are taken in schools. We can all contribute to the first, and teachers and principals have done extraordinary work to make schools as safe as possible. 8/8
My thanks to @CHeDS_ie and @gleesonj for their assistance in thinking this through, and the wider IEMAG group for their support.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Keep Current with Professor Philip Nolan

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!