Thread by @peterwsinger

“A John Henry-versus-the-steam-engine moment.”

Me on the AI vs human F-16 pilot test

“There is a nobility to the human role, but it symbolically points to a future of more and more machines in more and more roles,”
thedailybeast.com/inside-the-wil…
HT @daxe @thedailybeast

It is massively symbolic moment, a proof case that even in the most hallowed of human roles in air war, AI is moving in.

But it is just the start, the opening pitch of a nine inning game so to speak.

The key is that this is not really a "contest," but a learning exercise for both the military and the machine. The military is learning what works or not, but so is the system itself. Each and every data point makes that system more intelligent, more capable.

Win or lose, the human pilot that shows up for round 2 and then 3 will be effectively the same 1.0 version, while the technology will be at 2.0, 3.0 on so on.
Moreover, AI is also a "black box," so its creators soon won't even know how it improved itself. Just that it did.

But don't expect wholesale move to this kind of system anytime soon.
3 quick reasons for why will take time:
The decision to automate is not just about "could" but "should." There are a host of legal and ethical concerns that would have to be navigated through first

(the 5 AI principles for DoD are a good starting point for that)
Second, the military is, for very good reasons, a conservative organization, seeking to go into battle with what is known and trusted. Any new tech, let alone one of such change, has to go over that hurdle.

Third, there is massive investment in existing programs of record, with literally hundreds of billions of dollars and tens of thousands of jobs at stake. Anything that alters those plans is a threat that will be fought bureaucratically.

This is not even to go into issues of different "tribes" in the services and how some might also see more autonomous systems a threat.

BUT...

And here is where, I let you in on the secret from #BurnInBook (but you still have to buy it)...

The future (for the next generation at least) is NOT going to be a story of human vs machine. It is about figuring out human and machine teaming.

Whether in air combat to law enforcement to medical treatment to investing, we won't see wholesale replacement of machines, but humans delegating to and partnering with machines in new ways.

Figuring out which is the best way, in each setting, which does best, in what mix, in what form, when facing what type of adversary or challenge, etc. is where the real magic comes.

In other words, Lara Keegan and TAMS will beat your Terminator every time.