Thread by @ehaspel

CHILD CARE & COVID ROUNDUP, 8/21: In my opinion, there is a massively under-reported story going on, which is just how *few* outbreaks (multiple related cases) are happening in child care settings, despite being open through our long hot pandemic summer. Let's go around the horn.

First stop, Oregon. You may recall the below story went semi-viral at the end of June.

Well, you should also know that since June, this represents one of only THREE outbreaks in child care settings in the entire state.

(Source: oregonearlylearning.com/wp-content/upl…)

wweek.com/news/state/202…

Let's head to the desert and check out Arizona. AZ -- with an awful COVID surge earlier this summer -- is reporting SIX outbreaks in child care settings. (*CAVEAT*: Reporting positive COVID is voluntary in AZ, so assume the real # is moderately higher.)

azdhs.gov/preparedness/e…

To Texas we go. TX had some big issues early on with its child cares, likely thanks to lax regulation and a localized epidemic. We finally have some numbers. These show that there have been 1,134 cases among kids & 2,214 among adults. Let's contextualize!

texastribune.org/2020/08/20/tex…

First, those are raw case numbers, not OUTBREAKS (linked cases). When you dig into the numbers, 358 of the sites are reporting only one child and no adults positive, and 834(!) of the sites are reporting only one adult and no children positive.

hhs.texas.gov/services/healt…

So now you're down to 693 sites with more than one individual infected (and some significant portion of those wont be related cases), out of over 13,000 open programs. And kid-wise, keep in mind that even at 1/2 capacity, there are 400,000 children in licensed TX child cares!

Hopping over to North Carolina now. North Carolina, again a state with fairly high community spread, has reported 22 outbreaks in centers since the end of May out of its 4,000+ open programs (including, tragically, one death of a staff member).

files.nc.gov/covid/document…

Let's finish up in Colorado. CO, which has been back to pre-pandemic group sizes since beginning of June, reports 13 outbreaks in child care centers between then and now, again out of several thousand open programs.

covid19.colorado.gov/data/outbreak-…

Now what do these numbers tell us? In my opinion, a few things:

1) Of course, young kids can get COVID, and of course, congregate care settings are not zero-risk. These cases aren't just #'s, they represent real children and adults.

2) These numbers are *pretty darn low*!...

2 (cont.)) Child care data fights back against the alarmist headlines that have been emerging about young kids being "silent spreaders." These headlines were already based on misreadings of flawed studies, but look: if children WERE silent spreaders, we'd know! Collectively...

...there are tens and tens of thousands of open child cares with a million+ kids, and they've been open in most places since May/June. If little kids were major drivers of COVID, it would be apparent. Instead: 3 outbreaks in OR, 13 in CO!

But that's not getting reported, is it?

3) This correlates well with what Europe has taught us. Young children are inherently not super risky, and particularly when you put them in small(ish) groups with good health precautions, you can keep that risk very, very manageable while reaping many benefits for everyone.

Now, do I think this is an apples-to-apples translation to the school reopening debate? No! Obviously a child care center with 80 kids is not the same as sending 800 kids into a school. Don't open schools in Florida! Probably don't open secondary schools most places! BUT...

Particularly in areas like the Northeast (NYC, etc.) that are thinking seriously about keeping elementary schools closed to in-person instruction despite *very* low community spread, the child care experience shows how ill-advised and unnecessary that is!

Our child care professionals have been exposed & heroically staying open during a very uncertain period. One way we can honor that bravery is by learning from the child care experience - and it's showing us that done right, congregate care for young kids can be pretty darn safe./

CC: @ProfEmilyOster @alexanderrusso @davidzweig @apsmunro

(P.S. I'd also say this is a pretty good case for returning to pre-pandemic group sizes for child care, or at least close to it, in states with low/moderate comm. spread, which would help with the financial hammer programs are being hit with.

P.P.S. Congress, #FundChildCare!)

(Also, thanks to those who pointed out this new CDC report with concordant findings about Rhode Island child care programs:

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6… )