Interesting threads from @YunaHuhWong & @Fermat15 on how the lack of observability of AI military capabilities might affect deterrence and stability.
TL;DR - I don't know the answer but it's a very interesting question [THREAD]
TL;DR - I don't know the answer but it's a very interesting question [THREAD]
@YunaHuhWong argues that uncertainty about adversaries' AI capabilities (and the tendency to over-estimate others' capabilities) may enhance deterrence and lead to greater stability
https://twitter.com/YunaHuhWong/status/1296823519121231872
@Fermat15 suggests the opposite, that the lack of clarity regarding relative military capabilities increases the risk of miscalculation and instability
https://twitter.com/Fermat15/status/1296926806055034880
Not sure what is more likely, and does it depend on the situation and/or regime? Would willingness to engage in risk-taking behavior be a factor?
It does seem like the lack of observability of AI military capabilities - can't be seen & counted the same way as missiles or ships - is relevant, although it seems like a continuation of the current trend as more and more military capabilities are software-based
How do states respond as the relative balance of military power may become increasingly fuzzy and unclear?
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