Thread by @kerpen

There will not be much transmission in schools anywhere, regardless of containment or lack thereof. School disruptions have been caused by *community transmission* reflected in schools and ill-advised healthy quarantine policies.

We know this because we have data from all over the world and it is consistent.

The one supposed exception country anti-schoolers flog as if it makes the other three dozen countries irrelevant is actually in line with everything else.
ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/…

The big problem we have is status quo bias. The new school year is the natural psychological break-point.

Places that open with crippled part-time schedules, masks, and other draconian restrictions will falsely credit them for the lack of transmission and lock themselves in.

Places that stay closed completely will always find another reason to stay closed, regardless of all the data that continues to pile up.

This could go on for a very long time, regardless of facts or evidence. Heck, it already has. Recall that CDC never called for general school closures, always classified schools as a low-risk setting, and yet most children have been barred from schoolhouse doors since March.

And the proposed community-based metrics are a trap. Most entail non-testing adjusted incidence rates that are literally impossibly low with hypertesting going on with false positives alone.

The only solution I see is to demand a glide-path to normal up front.

No in-school transmission for a month --> full-time
Another month --> masks off
Another month --> relax distancing

But with Dems/unions pursing a cripple the economy by shuttering schools strategy, getting anything at all seems Herculean.

Most disturbing is that, since the beginning, the advocates of wholesale sacrificing the education and social emotional wellness of our children have somehow dodged any burden of proof. Neat trick.

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1251214594745479170