Frank Peelen Profile picture
Aug 28, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/6

I'd be curious to know where they got that number. I believe that $55M should be in the ballpark of the cost of a single Falcon 9 launch, not a per seat price when 4-7 passengers on a flight. Starship will be at least an order of magnitude cheaper.
2/6

The big takeaway for me is that SpaceX is interested into getting into space tourism. If they do, I don't see how will be able to compete with SpaceX on price. @elonmusk 's goal is to eventually offer tickets to Mars for the price of a house after all.
3/6

Even if offers a 'simpler experience', Starship is designed to compete with airline tickets in Earth-to-Earth flights, so I'm skeptical that a comparatively tiny company like can compete with SpaceX on price.
4/6

And even if can offer a 'simpler experience' at a lower price point, and thereby go after a lower market segment, there's the issue of trust and brand. Would you rather ride a rocket from SpaceX, the leading commercial launch services provider that's done dozens of...
5/6

successful flights, and that's led by the one and only Elon Musk? Or would you rather ride a vehicle of the comparatively tiny , that's done a lot less flights, and has a lot more to prove?
6/6

Bottom line is that SpaceX's has a dominating lead in Space technology, which is only increasing. Given that SpaceX has shown plans to get into space tourism, I'm skeptical that can compete and survive long term.

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More from @FrankPeelen

May 4
1/4

My view on Tesla's plan for Superchargers:

Tesla is all about AMaaS (Autonomous Mobility as a Service), and the recent progress in FSD I believe has shifted how @elonmusk sees Superchargers. Resulting in him rebuilding the team from scratch in order to better achieve his new vision.

In the past and present, businesses have been interested in having Superchargers near them, because they bring in potential customers. The Destination Chargers play into this.

But two shifts are currently happening:

1) I said years ago that I thought Tesla would most likely end up with a majority market share in AMaaS, but anything other than a monopoly is looking less and less likely by the day. It's like Tesla is Mike Tyson fighting 3yr old children. Tesla has no real competition in autonomy.

2) Tesla is trending towards more and more dominance in the EV charging space with NACS becoming the standard, and the Supercharger Network opening up across the globe. I never cared much about this, because it doesn't contribute significantly to the bottom line, until I realised something.
2/4

What these two things mean is that Superchargers are going to be hubs for all terrestrial transport.

Just a few weeks ago it was announced that in the UK you can now order food via your Tesla and have it delivered to Supercharger locations. This is no coincidence.

Furthermore, Tesla has been experimenting with Superchargers that have diners and movie theaters. Yes, this is cool, but it's a lot more than that.

I believe a shift will happen from businesses competing to have Superchargers near them, to businesses competing to be near Superchargers.

I believe that malls, hotels, offices, and just about everything else will eventually flock to and be built around Superchargers, much like they are currently built around train stations. Simply because it's where robotaxis, which will provide most of terrestrial transport, will have to charge, and so it's simply the most efficient thing to build everything around Superchargers.
3/4

With that, Tesla may end up treating Supercharger locations like McDonalds treats its franchises. It may own the land and charging infrastructure, and lease out the land around the chargers to others who want to be near to them and benefit from the value Tesla provides through AMaaS.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 24, 2022
1/17

With regards to $TSLA's price action, I have good news, good/bad news, and bad news.

Let's start with the good news
2/17

The good news is that it's pretty obvious that the price action over the past week and a half has been driven by a very large (non-Elon) seller.
3/17

Looking at the volume of shares traded, my guess (really just a guess) is that at least on the order of 50M shares have already been sold off. Elon sold 20M in 3 days pushing the stock down ~10%. This has been 6 days in which the stock went down 25% on even higher volume.
Read 17 tweets
Nov 26, 2022
1/12

Something may be going on with $TSLA short interest this year. Something reminiscent of the past that I thought $TSLA had moved past after 2020 and the S&P inclusion.

This thread explains what I noticed this week.
2/12

In 2018, Jesselivenomore presented his theory on TMC that certain entities were shorting $TSLA not for profit, but with the purpose of bankrupting the company.

teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/el…
3/12

This is technically a conspiracy theory, but I think most people who followed Tesla before 2020 will agree that Jesse's theory is most likely true.
Read 12 tweets
Nov 10, 2022
1/5

What's going on with $TSLA?

Forward P/E is now at ~30, which is less than $NVDA and not far off $NFLX, both of which are expected to grow revenue single digits compared to Tesla's expected 55% revenue growth.
2/5

2023 is shaping up to be a terrible year economically, but Tesla should have no trouble selling every car it makes, because demand for EVs vastly outpaces supply. Furthermore, high oil prices are a part of this crisis until Ukraine conflict ends, which further pushes EVs.
3/5

Tesla may have to drop prices to sell every car and hurt margins, but at the same time there are numerous margin headwinds:

-4680 cost savings
-Front + rear castings
-Structural batteries
-US tax credit
-Commodoty prices falling
-Operating leverage
Read 5 tweets
Feb 28, 2021
3/9

You then hold the stock until one of two things happens:

1) Either the stock's current value (stock price) catches up to what you believe its actual value to be.
2) Or something happens that impacts your valuation, causing it to drop below the stock's current value.
4/9

I define risk in investing as the chance of your own valuation of an investment dropping. One way in which this can happen is if your assessment of the investment turns out to be wrong, and you miscalculated in some way.
5/9

But it can also happen if you do not make any mistakes. For example, @ARKInvest's most recent $TSLA forecast consists of many different scenarios, one of which is bankruptcy. One of ARK's bear cases coming to fruition is a risk to their investment.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 7, 2021
@TeslaLife5 @truth_tesla @Thinky78 @TeslaPodcast @Tesla Stock price is a function of supply and demand. For me it's based on expectation of long-term financial performance, risk-level, opportunity cost, and some others. I think 2030 $TSLA bear case is $2-3k ($4-5k if solve autonomy), and bull case $10-12k.
@TeslaLife5 @truth_tesla @Thinky78 @TeslaPodcast @Tesla I also think risk is very low, and I'd have to invest a lot of time researching other companies to even find any I would want to invest in, and my time is scarce atm. I think $TSLA would have to be ~$2-3k before I'd personally even start to look for alternatives.
@TeslaLife5 @truth_tesla @Thinky78 @TeslaPodcast @Tesla I would consider perhaps divesting 5-20% to cash and/or index funds at a price of $2-3k today.
Read 4 tweets

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