1/2 When the "pussy tape" leaked, I wasn't too worried. I went to a rally in Wilkes-Barre soon after and I knew Trump was going to win PA; the return to baseline was underway, normal Blue Collar Dem types there were gleefully rationalizing Trump's behavior. I put money on 2016. Image
2/2 If the riot violence doesn't end and the UMC Whites perceive their enduring covid fragility being exacerbated by BLM/Antifa behaving badly with license from Dems, their vote will decide the election even with lower WCW turnout:

play with the sliders

When I say play with the sliders, understand what @Redistrict built (you can extract the JSON blob, load it up into a database and correct it with 2020 Census Data way too late for the next election): this is a future calculator - axes for demographic turnout & voter affiliation
A pathological case; the entire eligible voting population of each demographic bucket votes one way, 100% turnout.

You can then, one at a time, flip different demographics affiliation to see in which EC states their vote matters and to what extent.

Spoiler alert: it's Whites.
Specifically, the reason Men and Woman and College Socialized vs non-College Socialized Whites (I hate to say 'educated') must be broken out in different brackets is because those cohorts' behavior is hugely different, and Whites are populous. Unnecessary for the other groups.
Trump won with the @Steve_Sailer strategy; you can generate the 2016 map by fidgeting with the sliders to reflect Trump losing a bit of Romney's white vote, but gaining inroads among non college educated whites (with marginal gains among blacks & latinos).

So he'd lose in 2020:
1) he didn't do shit for them/went against promises

2) these voters were often indies/Democrats in places it counted, in the States & counties he flipped from Obama

3)Trump has gone from being embarrassing to a moral anchor for evil/stupidity within the white upper middle class
4) 2018 showed us exactly what kind of mobilization was possible against the GOP by the Coalition of the Fringes (another @Steve_Sailer -ism); whose Iron Spine is the college educated white woman. And if single? Good chance she actually works for progressive causes outright!
The thing about those AWFL women though, is that they love 'Target'. They love Williams-Sonoma more, but, you know, @Peter_Turchin 's thesis about elite overproduction is right, and there are only so many lucrative office sinecures to go around, and student debts have to be paid.

This upper 10 % of America, the new 'Upper Middle Class', the PMCs, the Managerial Elite, Bill Bishop's "Big Sort" or @charlesmurray 's Violators of Fishtown, actually really like creature comforts and 'public safety'. They don't care for /riots/ at all.
So what does @PollsAndVotes 's polling suggest? What does going from +22 to -5 mean wrt. White opinion #BlackLivesMatter , Antifa, and the riots mean?


It means a lot of those who now think ill of the protests are in @Redistrict 's 2nd slider in the tool.
Here's @Redistrict 's Nightmare Map (different initial conditions than the 2012 affiliation and turnout):


Trump loses pop vote by ~5 million Dems flip MI/PA

BUT Trump clinches AZ, FL, NC & **WI** and wins reelection by 1 electoral vote.
It assumes a BIG shift in UMC Whites (CEW in the URL) and the minority numbers were shifted around in a way I find unlikely. But what if UMC Whites goes a LITTLE more 'rightward' bc its turnout drops a little bit due to the Scary Riots?


Trump Landslide.
So I think it's a question between: How much does Biden's turnout drop/turn into flustered and afraid voting for Trump in the Suburban Dream territories (Philadelphia/Pittsburgh, Ann Arbor, Milwaukee), and how much does Trump's turnout re-Demify because of his blinkered admin?
Trump winning because of racist and as 'white trash' loathing as 'black thug' fearful suburban whites (including recent city exodus types) is a possibility.

I think it would tragically set the White Working Class up for four more years of President Kushner, but it could happen.

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More from @Indian_Bronson

11 Nov
@RichardBSpencer @MisterBlackPill @MrPimpino @EndRacismPls @cashmoneyglock @heraclitean11 Everyone thinks the Sailer strategy is 'More Whites' but it's really not that simple;
@RichardBSpencer @MisterBlackPill @MrPimpino @EndRacismPls @cashmoneyglock @heraclitean11 The States of Change report from *before* the election (which this report is mentioning) also spoke of Scenario F among simulations highlighting more 'White GOP Support' but was also aware of the fun popular vote / swing state dynamics of increasingly Boomer White support
@RichardBSpencer @MisterBlackPill @MrPimpino @EndRacismPls @cashmoneyglock @heraclitean11 The GOP is not doomed bc a two party system, a dynamical systems, means the steady state will be resumed after a shock. The Democrats were not destroyed by the Southern Strategy either, in the lives of those now living.
Read 6 tweets
6 Nov
I am in a good mood. I am glad this is happening and you should be too

Seeing many bewildered, indignant conservatives pretending next time GOP does what it wants they won't just vote for it again🤭

Let's explore why you were (understandably) caring so much and don't need to:

yeah, okay, I saw all the crazy videos and shenanigans too

There is some level of not above board conduct, and it is probably tipping the scale in favor of Biden

Fine—but even so, have you noticed the GOP doesn't care? (Oh, some are now pretending to) News networks?
But fraud isn't what meant loads of non college educated/blue collar/Trump 2016 whites didn't support Trump this time around, or improve turnout. You're not claiming the historic black & latino numbers for Trump are also fraud, right?

Well, messaging and policy works both ways
Read 19 tweets
4 Nov
1) Twitter's warning link regarding this tweet gives you some generalized pablum about vote by mail being 'safe'.

2) Pennsylvania is allowing ballots to be counted which arrive up to THREE DAYS after election day WITHOUT A POSTMARK.

3) con't ImageImage
3) imho Trump has no guts, albeit good instincts, and is a just a politically incorrect Liberal. His minority pandering, and ignoring of his nationalist voters is par for that course—so I don't anticipate anything here

4) to fix this Trump needs to take severe extralegal actions
5) Trump is the commander in chief of the US Armed Forces, the entire DOJ reports to him. He should invoke the Insurrection Act, and deploy US troops and Homeland Security/Justice Department forces across major polling places, and cities likely to see unrest.

6) con't
Read 6 tweets
3 Nov
> masculine and competent

A decade+ of manosphere writing/incel discourse didn't come from nowhere.

This asking men to be sexy & work hard; turn women on & study in school—be fuckable & save up.
Exhibit r, but also K.

Men have responded to ultimatums:

Consider, @kaschuta , Dalrock wrote that article in 2011, when the median age at first marriage for women was 26!!

Like @HMDatMI , Dalrock observes that Recently In The Past, in the lives of those now living, women *by default* came to marriage as young virgins.

Essentially, "Bang [Countryname]" era @rooshv (he is pro-marriage now) and @RationalMale and people with blogs that no one can find now like Roissy/Chateau Heartiste and all the rest of it were reactionary. They were just one manifestion of men responding to signal women put out.
Read 20 tweets
2 Nov
Greg Johnson believes he'll be invited to sup at the GOP policy table bc Peter Thiel—also a white, homosexual, heterodox sort—who has yet to be dismissed from polite society, once had him for dinner.

Here is some of his writing:

Greg Johnson, a man who engages in flights of fancy about ethnostate cruelties or demeaning remarks to inflict on those who racially offend him—his status as a gay man long since rationalized as beneficial to racial survival no doubt—demanding a vote for Trump is rather typical.
What the MSM knows as hardcore white racism in America, is the injured bleating of the least powerful, least serious, most delusional people in the US.

Not to say they are idiots—rich liberals & non white immigrants scrupulously avoid certain neighborhoods, for 'reasons', too.
Read 9 tweets
1 Nov
Integralists LARPing as Neo Falangists, sure.

But there will be no coalitions. That's the point and this isn't a decision anyone will make.

Mass culture is simply on the way out, and what is coming is tribe. In fact PATRONAGE NETWORKS will be even more powerful than mere tribe.
One view of illiberalism is RaHoWa, the Day of the Rope—it has percolated all the way down into normie political culture as 'The Boogalo' to the extent that 'Your skin will be your uniform' and 'READ SIEGE' types have watched their linguistic totems become used by NFAC/CivNats.
^ if you have ANY idea what RaHoWa or 'CivNat' mean, you are part of an elite group of Very Online, even Too Online Americans. You comment on threads. You have memes hogging your phone gallery storage. So why do you believe mass society and culture will persist? 'Being American'?
Read 4 tweets

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