Professional musing for the night:
Impactful scientists cultivate a reputation of doing science that is good, relevant, and nice.
My advice to junior researchers: be careful not to compromise too much on any of these three pillars.
If people perceive your science as good and nice but not relevant, you will be seen as living in an ivory tower.
You might publish lots of papers, but stakeholders (e.g., practitioners) will see your work as distanced from the real world.
If people perceive your science as nice and relevant but not good, your peers will discredit you.
Your work might be well received by funders/media/etc for a while, but if your peers think you cut scientific corners, word will get out that you are not a source to be trusted.
If people perceive your science as good and relevant but not nice, nobody will want to work with you.
You might make a name for yourself to start, but we all need teams/referrals to succeed. If people are intimidated or hesitant to work with you, you will eventually flounder.
Ultimately, any one project is fleeting, but your reputation, once established, is hard to change.
If you find yourself becoming less rigorous, doing work that is less relevant, or being less nice - it's better to take a step back and re-evaluate than to plow forward.
In every thing we do - from the smallest peer review to the largest research project - we should seek to do science that is good, relevant, and nice. Else, the scientific enterprise (which depends on individual scientists) will suffer.
(The same applies to teaching, giving advice to friends, etc. If your lectures/advice/etc are not good, not relevant to your audience, or not delivered in a nice way - they will not make an impact.)
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Over half of all COVID infections in the US are now BA.5.
3 reasons why this isn't as alarming as it might seem:
- Rise in BA.5 has been gradual.
- Our immune systems are better prepared.
- Places hit first by the current wave have stabilized.
Some reasons for COVID optimism:
Gradual rise:
Whereas Omicron fully established itself in 1 month, BA.5 has taken 2 months to get to 50%.
And the size of the wave has been much smaller.
Meaning that any advantage BA.5 has over other subvariants is very small, compared to the advantage Omicron had over Delta.
Viruses evolve. But our immune systems also adapt.
One can always focus on the virus for bad news. But the overall trend is good news.
Apr-June 2022 was the least deadly 3-month period since the pandemic started. Even as transmission (e.g., test positivity, orange) has risen.
Now setting three "community levels". Previously based on cases + test positivity, now cases + new COVID admissions + % of hosp beds occupied by COVID.
A quick hot-take🧵on pros and cons of this approach.
Pro: It uses science.
This was based on measures that most accurately predicted deaths & ICU use in 3 weeks. Far better than arbitrary goals.
Pro: Test positivity was dropped.
% of tests positive is no longer a meaningful indicator, as testing varies so widely from one location to the next, and many tests are at-home tests that are difficult to track.
Nobody knows for sure, but here's my take on the 3 most likely scenarios.
Each with reasons why that scenario might (and might not) happen.
Take home: Depends on how long & strong immunity is, w/ most people now vax'd/infected multiple times.
Scenario A: 2022 is great.
COVID levels stay very low, at least until winter. Then we boost w/ COVID + flu vax.
Why so?
- Most people now have multiple doses of immunity (vax or infection).
- Many cases could be asymptomatic.
- Europe saw this in 2020 w much less immunity.
Why not Scenario A?
- Most countries haven't gone this long w/o a wave (or very stringent restrictions).
- Immunity vs infection doesn't seem to last that long: four vax doses haven't prevented a wave in Israel.
- Betting against the virus has not been smart so far.
Now that we've been living with Omicron for 2 months, we can use this wave to learn some lessons about
COVID in general.
First: This virus likely depends on a core group of people/settings for its spread.
We can surmise this by looking at the decline of Delta.
If 1 in 3 Omicron cases is reported, the # of cases in the US now is similar to # vax'd per day in April.
Yet Delta is falling much faster today (in winter) than cases were in April.
Why? Likely Omicron (unlike vax) is infecting the people who otherwise would transmit Delta.
And Omicron-induced immunity nearly wiped out Delta - at a time when <5% of the population had been infected w Omicron.
Meaning that a small fraction of people (those most likely to get infected & transmit) and settings
(large outbreak-prone gatherings) are sustaining spread.
Though guilty myself, I wish we would stop naming waves according to variant ("delta wave", "omicron wave", etc).
This makes it seem like each wave is randomly triggered by a new variant - and there's nothing we can do about it.
But in reality, we are making a lot of progress.
Each wave can be explained by a combination of behavior change, winter effect, and immunity. Without invoking variants.
And though waning immunity has played a role so far, our overall immunity is building w time. (Why the average case now is milder than early in the pandemic.)
As shown below, we were able to live more freely in 2021. Largely because of vax/immunity.
This most recent wave isn't over - and we need to act w caution until it is.
But we are not at the mercy of each new variant. Though we're all tired, things should get better soon.