When a country becomes tier1 economic power with builtup overhang of vast resources (usa in 1920), it will either incite or atleast use the next great conflict to level that up with its military might and imperium (usa in ww2). Growth as a mil superpower may lag by 1-2 decades
Even if not deliberate and it gets dragged in, the weight of its industry and resources will make it a major military power ... like usa turned the its full weight to weapons in ww2 and left uk/france in the dust
As status quo powers, uk n france “won” ww2 but were left sapped and unwould their colonial empires. Revitionist powers japan italy germany after great initial success were defeated by weight of the real heavy hitters russia and usa and left with nothing but ruins.
I feel china 🇨🇳 feels sufficiently confident of the depth of its economic might and gap with its periphery to impose a new military reality in tune with its economic stature. In any prolonged conflict it feels confident of bringing its production n stockpile to bear....
If we see china for first 20 years they n-tupled the economy and did not scale up military but reformed it like manpower reduction, better training, investment in r&d/expat scientists/ip theft frameworks ...
By 2008 they had built a huge momentum using peaceful rise meme to keep west asleep... last 15 years have seen hypergrowth in military production the teeth end of the big game... hence policy pivot from 2008
Things like middle east wars, financial crisis, military atrophy in europe, confused japan also played into it as favourable tailwinds.. since then their unique brand of belligerence is to avoid direct war but scare the rim into submission...
Blow hot and cold combo designed to keep everyone guessing..sometimes nice sometimes random but well timed rages to condition other side to give in to get carrots and avoid stress
Our EAM saying india has no idea why china is occupying dmz is a good example of not even highest levels being able to figure out the shape of the blow hot cold curve as its not a repeating shape but deliberate random changes...
highly deferential way china border is treated vs pak border with top level panel micro managing things is also indicative of the uncertainty and fear that china has induced in minds of all leaders on its rim...every proactive countermove is presented as a risk...to freeze people
China will easily get whatever it wants in this round unless someone either alone or as alliance imposes serious military and economic costs on it. The dilemma is do it now but end up weaker in economy for round2 or wait for round2 where the gap may get even bigger...
In india china context unless we improve our economic growth rate AND fix domestic weapons production AND end the import virus , the significant overall matrix gap now will be 5x in a decade
And no longer could we even contemplate a local victory or bloody nose plan...things like even pakistan having high quality ships and subs in numbers are inevitable at current curves and so is gwader as a big plan base...
Decoupling strategic sectors from china dependency is also must to not be a vassal shivering at the emperors shifting moods. The D10 alliance of democracy supply chain initiative was good idea that german kowtowing and us domestic politics hijacked for now but need to happen...
Taking away coercive levers from the emperors quiver of options is always a good idea to shape the coming multi decade battle to control chinese expansion
