My MBA class, the Class of 2001, had the worst job market experience of any class in living memory. (Yes, worse than the financial crisis). The Class of 2021 will probably outdo us. wsj.com/articles/m-b-a…
Before you ask, how could 2001 have done worse than the classes of 2008 or 2009?
Because companies that had fired whole associate classes found themselves, 5-8 years later, without the middle management layers they needed. In 2008, they resolved not to let that happen again.
2001 was hammered because we were right in the eye of Hurricane Stock Market Crash--the Class of 2000 got a year of relatively normal job experience and seniority when the layoffs started; 2002 got some warning. 2001 got hosed.
But 2021 is likely to do worse because they're not just dealing with an economic downturn; they're dealing with companies that don't want to start new employees remotely, for good reason: you can't socialize them into the company culture over Zoom.
So to the Class of 2021: Sorry, guys, it sucks. I've been there. Try to find some way to usefully occupy your time (mine was blogging). Maybe it will eventually turn into a job, as blogging did for me.
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I think this is bad, but also think it's a sign of something I thought a lot about after 1/6: it's really important for elites to uphold election norms precisely because normies won't. They'll be happy to indulge in election denial if the political elite goes along.
Democratic norms aren't a bedrock fact of democracy. They're a truce between opposing groups of political elites. Which is why it is in fact extremely important to have elites who are committed to those norms, and will swiftly crush even minor violations.
The biggest example is obviously Donald Trump. But Democratic elites dabbled too, with their little games about election certification, and their humoring of Stacy Abrams, and their looking the other way when Clinton said he wasn't a legitimate president.
If you are making fun of how terrible all the food was in the 1950s, some things to keep in mind 🧵:
1) Many of the worst recipes are from cookbooks created to promote various foodstuffs, and probably no one except the poor domestic scientist who created them ever made them.
2) Most jello salad isn't as bad as you think.
3) People were much, much poorer--1950s housewives also preferred steak to spam, but their budget didn't.
4) Chicken and eggs used to be more expensive than beef, not a cheap weeknight staple.
5) For 6-9 months of the year, in most of the country, fresh produce other than hardy lettuces like iceberg and storeables like carrots, onions, potatoes, and apples, were unavailable at any reasonable price.
I think the way to square this circle is to think of this not as a matter of people rejecting the moral values you care about, but as emphasizing different values that you both care about.
Abortion is a good example of this; people tend to think of others as not caring about [the life of the baby/the autonomy of the mother] but in fact most people care about both. They're just choosing which they care about more.
I consider Trump's character disqualifying. But my friends who are voting for Trump don't like his character. Rather, they care about other stuff--sometimes abortion, but lots of other stuff like abuse of left-wing institutional power.
So I wrote a column on my Dad's last year, and the brutal math of caring for the elderly.
The column is here. I wrote it because many folks assume that we could save $$$$ by using home care to keep folks out of nursing homes, which is not really true. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…
That assumption is natural enough, because nursing homes are really, really expensive--my Dad's semi-private room (a curtained alcove with a shared bathroom) cost $16,500 a month.
The problem is that by the time you're disabled enough to need a nursing home, you tend to require 24 hour assistance.
I don't know all the reasons for the Secret Service failures in Butler. But having written a book about failure (she said, demurely pointing to the link: ) I'm pretty sure that one problem was that ... it had been a long time since anything went wrong.amazon.com/Up-Side-Down-F…
Everything the secret service does is a tradeoff: between false positives and false negatives; between safety, and the cost that must be imposed on everyone else to make incremental safety gains; between ensuring nothing bad happens and ensuring that *nothing* happens.
If you shoot everyone who looks suspicious you make protectees safer, but kill more innocent people. If you have a massive security perimeter, it will be massively expensive and massively inconvenient. If you lock down protectees, they will be safer, but less effective
Since the debate, people outside of Washington have been asking me the same question over and over: how did the media miss the Biden story?
So I asked a bunch of savvy political reporters that question, and wrote a column on it
I know, conservatives, you think you know the answer: Democratic journalists were covering for a Democratic president. But that's not quite right, as I wrote in my column:
There was no conspiracy. There were a lot of tiny decisions about what to cover today, who to trust, and how blunt to be that collectively added up to a giant mistake that left our readers in the dark.