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Megan McArdle Profile picture
@asymmetricinfo
Aug 31, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
My MBA class, the Class of 2001, had the worst job market experience of any class in living memory. (Yes, worse than the financial crisis). The Class of 2021 will probably outdo us. wsj.com/articles/m-b-a…
Before you ask, how could 2001 have done worse than the classes of 2008 or 2009?

Because companies that had fired whole associate classes found themselves, 5-8 years later, without the middle management layers they needed. In 2008, they resolved not to let that happen again.
2001 was hammered because we were right in the eye of Hurricane Stock Market Crash--the Class of 2000 got a year of relatively normal job experience and seniority when the layoffs started; 2002 got some warning. 2001 got hosed.
But 2021 is likely to do worse because they're not just dealing with an economic downturn; they're dealing with companies that don't want to start new employees remotely, for good reason: you can't socialize them into the company culture over Zoom.
So to the Class of 2021: Sorry, guys, it sucks. I've been there. Try to find some way to usefully occupy your time (mine was blogging). Maybe it will eventually turn into a job, as blogging did for me.

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More from @asymmetricinfo

Megan McArdle Profile picture
Mar 8
This 1000%. I too used to think male strength was mostly about size until my super-skinny college boyfriend, who actually weighed less than me, effortlessly pinned me in a (playful) wrestling match, then held me down with one arm while he ostentatiously took a bite of his sandwich
Even now people will sometimes name check me in the trans sports debate, along the lines of "sure, most men are bigger than most women, but women like Megan McArdle exist" and yes, I do exist, but no I am not as strong even as men a foot shorter than me.
In grip strength, for example, the male and female distributions only barely overlap; the very strongest women can outdo only the very weakest men. The difference is so great that a super-strong prime-age woman would struggle when arm-wrestling an average 80-year old man. Image
Read 4 tweets
Megan McArdle Profile picture
Feb 18
The problem is that these extra payments are used to provide extra benefits, in the form of lower copays and add-ons like dental and vision. Cutting the payments wouldn't necessarily make the retirees less healthy, but it would make them mad as hell.

There is no magic pot of money that can be cut without pissing off voters. If there were, it would have been cut in previous hunts for revenue to spend on tax cuts or new benefits.
Oh, and fun fact: in many states, you can't get Medigap insurance if you've been in Medicaid advantage. So you would be cutting the primary reason people choose MA, and those people would then find that they can't really transition back to traditional. The politics of that would be fun.
It's not that I'm against making these cuts, mind. It's that no one should convince themselves any of this is easy. If it were easy, it would already have been done.
Read 4 tweets
Megan McArdle Profile picture
Dec 5, 2024
This is, btw, why the fantasies of getting US costs down to European levels through the power of single payer will never work. Governments are more vulnerable to this sort of pressure than private companies are, not less. "Call your congresscritter and ask them why they want patients to die!" is a super effective ad.
(Then how did European countries do it? By holding costs down, not by getting providers to take a pay cut).
Our legislators try to avoid this by enacting all these complicated, opaque reforms in hopes that providers won't notice we're cutting their pay but the thing is the providers care more about paying their mortgage than legislators do about saving money.
Read 4 tweets
Megan McArdle Profile picture
Nov 8, 2024
I think this is bad, but also think it's a sign of something I thought a lot about after 1/6: it's really important for elites to uphold election norms precisely because normies won't. They'll be happy to indulge in election denial if the political elite goes along.
Democratic norms aren't a bedrock fact of democracy. They're a truce between opposing groups of political elites. Which is why it is in fact extremely important to have elites who are committed to those norms, and will swiftly crush even minor violations.
The biggest example is obviously Donald Trump. But Democratic elites dabbled too, with their little games about election certification, and their humoring of Stacy Abrams, and their looking the other way when Clinton said he wasn't a legitimate president.
Read 4 tweets
Megan McArdle Profile picture
Nov 4, 2024
If you are making fun of how terrible all the food was in the 1950s, some things to keep in mind 🧵:

1) Many of the worst recipes are from cookbooks created to promote various foodstuffs, and probably no one except the poor domestic scientist who created them ever made them.
2) Most jello salad isn't as bad as you think.

3) People were much, much poorer--1950s housewives also preferred steak to spam, but their budget didn't.

4) Chicken and eggs used to be more expensive than beef, not a cheap weeknight staple.
5) For 6-9 months of the year, in most of the country, fresh produce other than hardy lettuces like iceberg and storeables like carrots, onions, potatoes, and apples, were unavailable at any reasonable price.
Read 5 tweets
Megan McArdle Profile picture
Oct 25, 2024
I think the way to square this circle is to think of this not as a matter of people rejecting the moral values you care about, but as emphasizing different values that you both care about.
Abortion is a good example of this; people tend to think of others as not caring about [the life of the baby/the autonomy of the mother] but in fact most people care about both. They're just choosing which they care about more.
I consider Trump's character disqualifying. But my friends who are voting for Trump don't like his character. Rather, they care about other stuff--sometimes abortion, but lots of other stuff like abuse of left-wing institutional power.
Read 7 tweets

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