1/8
Very good article, Keith, but while I agree that part of the reason for the surge in China’s exports may have to do with its having emerged first from C-19, and because “families all over the world are sprucing up the homes they are now stuck inside...buying everything...
Very good article, Keith, but while I agree that part of the reason for the surge in China’s exports may have to do with its having emerged first from C-19, and because “families all over the world are sprucing up the homes they are now stuck inside...buying everything...
2/8
from computer screens and stereo systems to power tools and home saunas – many of which are made in China”, this doesn't at all explain what I think may be the more important story, which is China’s soaring trade surplus.
After all if Chinese exports are doing fine, the...
from computer screens and stereo systems to power tools and home saunas – many of which are made in China”, this doesn't at all explain what I think may be the more important story, which is China’s soaring trade surplus.
After all if Chinese exports are doing fine, the...
3/8
resulting foreign income should also drive higher Chinese imports, unless there were policy distortions preventing the two from moving in line with each other.
And there are. The imbalance between imports and exports is systemic, and cannot simply reflect strong foreign...
resulting foreign income should also drive higher Chinese imports, unless there were policy distortions preventing the two from moving in line with each other.
And there are. The imbalance between imports and exports is systemic, and cannot simply reflect strong foreign...
4/8
demand for Chinese goods versus weak Chinese demand for foreign goods. This is not how trade imbalances work.
The reason Chinese exports are soaring relative to imports has mainly to do with the very different way China responded to the Covid-19 demand shock relative...
demand for Chinese goods versus weak Chinese demand for foreign goods. This is not how trade imbalances work.
The reason Chinese exports are soaring relative to imports has mainly to do with the very different way China responded to the Covid-19 demand shock relative...
5/8
to the rest of the world. While most countries responded by boosting household income and domestic consumption, Beijing has done little to support consumption, which has been declining even as measures aimed at boosting production have succeeded.
As I have been writing...
to the rest of the world. While most countries responded by boosting household income and domestic consumption, Beijing has done little to support consumption, which has been declining even as measures aimed at boosting production have succeeded.
As I have been writing...
6/8
since May, the inevitable result must be a surge in China’s surplus as exports recover much more quickly than imports. Chinese consumers aren't just cutting back on foreign goods. They're cutting back on domestic goods too.
This isn’t unexpected. Because of the...
since May, the inevitable result must be a surge in China’s surplus as exports recover much more quickly than imports. Chinese consumers aren't just cutting back on foreign goods. They're cutting back on domestic goods too.
This isn’t unexpected. Because of the...
7/8
contraction in domestic consumption, China urgently needs net foreign demand to power domestic growth to reduce somewhat the huge increase in domestic debt this year, but because this comes at the expense of growth abroad, and mainly the US, it is hard to believe that...
contraction in domestic consumption, China urgently needs net foreign demand to power domestic growth to reduce somewhat the huge increase in domestic debt this year, but because this comes at the expense of growth abroad, and mainly the US, it is hard to believe that...
8/8
at some point soon there won’t be a much stronger backlash among China’s trading partners.
at some point soon there won’t be a much stronger backlash among China’s trading partners.
