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Warning- this is a nerdy thread on long range shots and why I worry about Celtic's shooting. I hear repeatedly that Christie is a good shooter so I thought I would examine his record from shots outside the box and the penalty arc. I reviewed 17-18 at Aberdeen & 18-19/19-20.
Christie had 274 non-penalty shots over that time with 147 outside the area. He had about 56% of his shots outside the area under McInnes and last season under Lennon, while 48% in the hybrid season under Rodgers/Lennon in 18-19. He scored 8 goals on aggregate of 4.62 xG...
on those 147 shots for avg xG per shot of about 0.03. One way to interpret that is that Christie is a "good shooter" because he has outperformed his xG. Of the 147 shots, 20% were on target, 43% were wide, 32% blocked, and 5% scored.
Of the 8 goals, I would only characterize 2 as consequential. He had 1 in a 1-1 draw for Aberdeen in a EL game, and 1 vs Rennes in 3-1 win last season. 3 were in the 7-0 hammering of St. Johnstone in last seaon's 1st league game, 1 was the 4th goal in 5-0 win over Nomme,
1 as 4th goal in 5-1 over Kilmarnock, and 1 as 3rd goal in 3-0 over Hearts- last two in 18-19 season. He's avg 0.15 on his 127 shots inside the area, or 5 times better chances. Now for the real nerdy part- those long range shots include a higher variance.
This means that an xG of 0.45 on 15 shots is not the same as 3 shots at 0.15 xG per. I do not have enough data to state whether these types of shots follow a normal distribution, but these two screenshots show the binomial distribution for these two.
Based on the data I have, I do not know if Christie is a "good shooter." He had a good/lucky 2 weeks early last season and seems to have scored more late in blowouts. What I can say is that "have a go" likely increases variance and risk in 1 off games like Ferencvaros.
One caveat- I tried to catch and remove direct free kicks from the sample but may have missed a couple/few. I removed one deflected free kick scored in 17-18 season at Aberdeen. End.
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