THREAD: Everyone’s vote is important, but thanks to the Electoral College, some votes in America matter more than others’. These are the nine types of voters who will decide 2020 trib.al/G139z6z
Double Haters: People who dislike both candidates but were still likely to vote. A Civiqs poll finds that Double Haters prefer Biden over Trump 58% to 4% trib.al/G139z6z 
Shy Trumpers: Trump did, indeed, overperform relative to polls in 2016. Was it because of “Shy Trumpers”? There’s debate about whether Shy Trumpers still exist—or ever did trib.al/G139z6z
Tired Trumpers: These are Republicans and independents who liked the good economy, liked Trump’s judges, and initially liked the idea that he’d come to Washington and shake things up, but have grown exhausted by and disillusioned with his behavior trib.al/G139z6z
Racial Justice Voters: The protests that followed George Floyd’s killing by a police officer in Minneapolis have already changed Americans’ political attitudes on issues of racism and police violence. Will they also activate a new wave of voters? trib.al/G139z6z
Minority Mold-Breakers: In 2016, Trump won 8% of Black voters and 28% of Hispanic voters, outdoing former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s performance among those groups in 2012 trib.al/G139z6z
Coronavoters: These are Republicans for whom the coronavirus was the last straw, and Democratic and independent voters who don’t always vote, but who tell pollsters that the pandemic will summon them off the couch into the voting booth come November trib.al/G139z6z
Swinging Seniors: A Harvard University study found that, in 2016, Trump won senior voters by 13 points overall, while exit polls show he won White senior voters by 20 points. But that strength has vanished. No group has swung harder to Biden than seniors trib.al/G139z6z
Hurricane Maria Refugees: After the hurricane devastated Puerto Rico in 2017, the extended suffering caused an exodus. About 400,000 Puerto Ricans relocated to Florida, altering the political composition of a perennial swing state trib.al/G139z6z
Florida’s Newly Enfranchised: Despite Republican efforts, some ex-felons will still be able to vote this fall—although no one is sure how many will turn out trib.al/G139z6z
More on Racial Justice Voters: As George Floyd’s family and others encouraged protesters to register, some Democratic data groups saw an increase in the number of people registering and volunteering trib.al/G139z6z
Strong support for Black progressive candidates in Democratic primaries is another indication of this group’s potential power. But will they turn out for a 77-year-old White man who authored the 1994 crime bill and his running mate, a former prosecutor? trib.al/G139z6z
