Thread by @OmgItsSmart

I can't post the whole report, but by popular demand, here are a few additional excerpts from my farewell note at Bernstein:

(1/x)

https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/1300483043006779392

2/ This note was originally my boss Toni's idea, i.e. that I should finally put pencil to paper on all of the various tech / investing thoughts that had been floating around my head

The specific "maxims" are partly jokes, but hopefully with kernels of truth belying them

3/ "Predicting the future is easy, making money is hard"

This maxim seemed to get the most traction on Fintwit (and I really do believe it)...

4/ There are *so* many examples of major tech companies being founded on failed ideas:

AWS (vs LoudCloud and IBM Utility Computing)

Virtually all SaaS companies (vs the ASPs of the late 90s)

Google (vs Altavista)

Tesla (vs the GM EV1)

Spotify (vs Pressplay / MusicNet)

5/ "In short, predicting the future of technology is easy: just look at what's already failed, and assume that somebody will eventually make a version that actually works"

Incentives matter. Execution matters. Luck matters!

6/ "The forecast is always off by a factor of 2 - just don't ask me in which direction"

This second maxim probably resonates with anyone who's ever worked on the sell-side...

When it comes to forecasts, nobody knows anything. Always distrust straight lines on charts

7/ Linear extrapolation is a fool's errand in tech, where results can be mean-repelling just as much as mean-reverting

Not to call out my former employer, but we undershot our original iPhone forecast in 2006 by 5x and our EV battery cost forecast in 2011 by 4x...

8/ "Any sufficiently advanced software is indistinguishable from magic"

This third maxim lays out something that everybody knows but nobody talks about - why has value in the tech stack accrued over time to software instead of hardware?

9/ My thesis: hardware inherently trends towards standardization (i.e. it's just assembling semiconductors into a plastic box), while software inherently trends towards differentiation (i.e. the virtual nature of code lends it infinite degrees of freedom)

10/ "All business is either bundling, or unbundling"

This 4th maxim explains why Apple can still succeed even if hardware is a commodity - there's always value in vertical integration or disintegration

11/ Apple captures value by vertically integrating hardware with exclusive software. So does Netapp, Cisco, and anyone else who makes money in hardware

In fact, bundling vs unbundling arguably explains the *majority* of tech industry value transfers in the last 25 years

12/ "The multiple matters just as much as the growth"

Sorry guys, I couldn't resist fitting at least one truly hot take in here...

13/ The investor Rorschach Test

Needless to say, we live in interesting times. Best of luck to you all