Thread by @Strikepod

The implications of DARPA's AlphaDogfight for air warfare are obvious. But what is perhaps not so obvious, yet equally significant, are the implications for undersea warfare.

[A thread.]

Last month, DARPA organized an aerial dogfight competition between AI systems operating virtual F-16s, the winner of which was selected to face off against a human pilot (flying a simulator). The winning AI, developed by @HeronSystems, subsequently defeated the pilot 5-0.

While the story has been "AI Defeats Human," the fact that different AI systems were able to out-think, outmaneuver, and defeat one another is just as significant an event, and should be of great interest to the undersea warfare community.

More specifically, to the mine warfare community, as there is a convergence underway. The lines separating mines, UUVs, and torpedos are blurring as technological challenges - communications, energy, autonomy - gradually erode.

Pictured: A "moor-pedo." (rb.gy/febxke)

As this convergence accelerates, it will eventually collide with an evolving mission in undersea warfare: counter-UUV operations. While MCM, ISR, ASW, and IPOE are the widely advertised UUV missions, CUUV is looming, and (one hopes) on the drawing board.

CUUV may take many forms: Non-kinetic ops such as acoustic jamming, decoys, and cyber, either pre-deployment or while underway via undersea comms networks. It may also include disrupting rogue/nonstate networks seeking to weaponize UUV platforms.

usni.org/magazines/proc…

But it will also take the form of kinetic ops, and this is where the significance of AlphaDogfight comes into play: The coming convergence will result in highly advanced vehicles that are intelligent, fast, agile, lethal, and capable of engaging in high-intensity undersea combat.

Undersea combat between autonomous vehicles will in many ways resemble basic fighter maneuvering (BFM), wherein the goal is to gain positional/energy advantage in order to place a weapon on target. In autonomous undersea combat, however, the combatants *are* the weapons.

I alluded to this in a blog post on defending against Poseidon, Russia's autonomous, nuclear powered/armed, intercontinental AUV. In this scenario, a swarm of advanced encapsulated torpedos rely on a distributed AI to defeat an incoming threat.

strikepod.com/strikepod-comm…

Of course the road to convergence will not be easy, nor will it be a straight line. The Anti-Torpedo Torpedo Defense System (ATTDS), for example, has been a disappointment, but concepts and related technologies will continue to evolve.

thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2…

While AlphaDogfight has tactical implications for UUVs, there are operational ones as well. Consider the environment: the undersea is challenging, opaque, and mysterious. Navies regularly exploit this to their advantage, and will continue to do so into the future.

And as advances in autonomy, comms, and energy advance, it will be possible not only to leverage the persistence and wide area sensor coverage provided by UUVs, but to engage in targeted undersea strikes, with vehicles fighting their way into and out of kill boxes.

Kinetic & non-kinetic operations would target sensors, energy depots, data transfer stations, transoceanic cables, unmanned vehicles, or seabed facilities with the goal of disrupting/degrading an adversary's C2, information, or energy infrastructure.

Finally, there are strategic implications as well. The undersea is a natural gray zone. In "peacetime," adversaries could engage in a unique kind of gray zone conflict - "autonomous undersea conflict" - wherein unmanned (i.e. expendable) vehicles challenge, engage ...

... and destroy one another, far from the prying eyes of the public or policymakers, pushing the boundaries of below-threshold conflict. There is precedent for inaction when unmanned vehicles are destroyed "in the clear," so it stands to reason that it would be no different ...

... in the undersea domain. In fact, adversaries may be willing to incur greater risks in pursuing their strategic objectives, incentivized by the opaqueness and anonymity of the environment, and unencumbered by any danger to human life.

TLDR: DARPA'S AlphaDogfight has implications for the evolution of offensive mine warfare and the coming convergence of UUVs, mines, and torpedos, potentially ushering in an era of undersea combat and opening a new front in gray zone conflict.

Thanks for reading. //