Heard an incredible story about analytics and the Coronavirus.
Apparently, a top predictive analytics company offered (pro-bono) to help a state government identify upcoming Covid hotspots.
Apparently, a top predictive analytics company offered (pro-bono) to help a state government identify upcoming Covid hotspots.
They built sophisticated models which worked reasonably well in back tests. But they started noticing a pattern in the government's response.
When local authorities were warned about an emerging hotspot, they *scaled back* testing in that area instead of ramping it up. The goalpost moved from avoiding hotspot formation to avoiding hotspot detection.
The company decided it was doing more harm than good and terminated the program. In the words of the person I spoke to, "we are far more concerned with managing optics than managing the pandemic".
Another reminder that technology is inherently political. We tech folks imagine information always as a force for good. Without the right incentives, however, it can and will be used just as easily to do harm.
