As we head into fall, worth reflecting on the past 3 months, and what it portends for next few
While things are clearly better since summer peak, serious warning signs ahead
The biggest one?
We go into Labor day with much more infection than we did Memorial Day
Thread
While things are clearly better since summer peak, serious warning signs ahead
The biggest one?
We go into Labor day with much more infection than we did Memorial Day
Thread
So a walk down memory lane
We opened up Memorial Day with 20,000 daily cases, 5.4% test positivity rate
We peaked around July 22, we had about 75,000 daily cases, nearly 9% positivity rate
As we enter Labor Day, we are at about 40,000 new cases, 6.3% positivity rate
2/5
We opened up Memorial Day with 20,000 daily cases, 5.4% test positivity rate
We peaked around July 22, we had about 75,000 daily cases, nearly 9% positivity rate
As we enter Labor Day, we are at about 40,000 new cases, 6.3% positivity rate
2/5
Compared to the peak, we are clearly better
But few things should worry us
1. We're going into fall with a lot more disease than we entered summer
2. Our test positivity rate higher now than June 1: means we are missing more cases
3. Our testing is DOWN over past month
But few things should worry us
1. We're going into fall with a lot more disease than we entered summer
2. Our test positivity rate higher now than June 1: means we are missing more cases
3. Our testing is DOWN over past month
I know we have been promised more testing this fall -- but not here yet
The bigger problem is that we are seeing a real divergence in states
First – southern states
Blazing hot all summer, now cooler
Still generating nearly 20K cases / day
And largely flat to bit down
4/6
The bigger problem is that we are seeing a real divergence in states
First – southern states
Blazing hot all summer, now cooler
Still generating nearly 20K cases / day
And largely flat to bit down
4/6
Group of Midwest/Western states where things are getting seriously worse:
N/S Dakota
Iowa
Missouiri
Kansas
others
And a group of states that continue to hum along: low case rates, low % positives – scattered across northeast (NY, MA, CT, etc) and midwest (MI, OH)
5/7
N/S Dakota
Iowa
Missouiri
Kansas
others
And a group of states that continue to hum along: low case rates, low % positives – scattered across northeast (NY, MA, CT, etc) and midwest (MI, OH)
5/7
Problem is that as kids come back to school, colleges re-open, business re-open – in many places, cases will rise
And we are at a very high baseline to begin with
And as cases begin to rise again, we’ll have larger outbreaks harder to manage.
So what to do?
6/8
And we are at a very high baseline to begin with
And as cases begin to rise again, we’ll have larger outbreaks harder to manage.
So what to do?
6/8
In places where cases are high or rising:
1. would NOT yet open schools, colleges
2. would close bars/all indoor dining
Drive cases lower through distancing, masks, testing
In places where cases low, focus on getting kids back to school safely, colleges opening safely
7/8
1. would NOT yet open schools, colleges
2. would close bars/all indoor dining
Drive cases lower through distancing, masks, testing
In places where cases low, focus on getting kids back to school safely, colleges opening safely
7/8
We must lower infection burden
We all know what happens in fall
weather cools
people spend more time indoors
flu arrives
Huge challenge to control the virus
Starting at a baseline of 40K daily cases a bit of a disaster
And no, vaccine on October 22 won't bail us out
Fin
We all know what happens in fall
weather cools
people spend more time indoors
flu arrives
Huge challenge to control the virus
Starting at a baseline of 40K daily cases a bit of a disaster
And no, vaccine on October 22 won't bail us out
Fin
