TrackRecord Trading Profile picture
Sep 4, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
EVENTS TO WATCH TODAY: 4 Sept 2020

1) U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls:

The consensus is for the US economy to have added another 1.4 million jobs in August, which would push the unemployment rate down to 9.8%, from 10.2% previously. Image
That would still leave the unemployment rate just beneath its peak from the 2008 financial crisis, so even though this is a step in the right direction, there are still miles to go before the labour market truly recovers.
More importantly, this report will capture the mid-July to mid-August period, when infections were on the rise and several states rolled back their reopening plans, causing high-frequency indicators to lose steam.
Crucial unemployment benefits also expired at the end of July, cutting off a vital economic lifeline for many US households, so it will be interesting to see whether all this impacted employment.
All told, the risks surrounding the dollar and stocks from this data set seem asymmetric, with a potential disappointment generating a bigger negative reaction than the corresponding upside one in case of stronger numbers.
2) US Equities:

The key driver today will be how the US equity market performs. If the sell-off accelerates, the policymakers are likely to start getting jittery and try to soothe the market.

FULL REPORT: trackrecordasia2960.ac-page.com/mailing-list

#GlobalMacroAtaGlance #TR2min #ForexTrading

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with TrackRecord Trading

TrackRecord Trading Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TradewithTR

Sep 28, 2020
4 NOTABLE LEGAL OPINIONS OF U.S. SUPREME COURT PICK: AMY CONEY BARRETT

This is important because Amy Coney Barrett will sit on the Supreme Court for decades, long after Trump is gone and shaping constitutional policies that will define America and what it stands for.
Amy Coney Barrett’s induction will tilt the Supreme Court towards a Conservative majority, hence her decisions will carry more weight than usual as it will more often than not be a “swing vote”.
As a result, the potential for political and social divide just ratcheted higher as Democrat voters will try to neutralize the skew in the Supreme Court, making a politically charged election a certainty. This might translate to extreme volatility in markets.
Read 13 tweets
Sep 25, 2020
1/TrackRecord's Market Musings😎: Fed Puts Ball Firmly In Congress’ Court

22nd Sep, POWELL: “Many of our programs rely on emergency lending powers that require the support of the Treasury Department and are available only in unusual circumstances.”
2/23rd Sep, POWELL: “Have done basically all of the things that we can think of”
3/24th Sep, POWELL: “While households are spending now, perhaps using what's left of money from the $2.3 trillion package passed by Congress in Mar, the risk is they will go through that money, ultimately, and hv to cut back on spending and maybe lose their home or their lease...
Read 8 tweets
Sep 23, 2020
TrackRecord's Market Musings😎: 5 Risk Factors We See Affecting Markets Leading Up To Nov 3rd Elections.

Thread Below ⬇️
1⃣: China Blacklists: China is threatening to blacklist US companies in retaliation for Huawei, Tiktok and Wechat bans. For now, China seems to be waiting till the next President is confirmed...
... Chinese consumer and manufacturing base is still key for some Big Tech U.S. companies. And Big Tech makes up a sizable portion of U.S. market capitalization.
Read 10 tweets
Sep 22, 2020
1/TrackRecord's Observation of the Day 💭: Winter Is Coming

We are on the precipice of a perfect confluence of forces that will result in unprecedented volatility in the coming months.
2/As winter is literally coming, there is a good chance Covid-19 will come back with a vengeance, can governments afford the economic brunt of another lockdown?
3/One of the reasons for yesterday’s selloff was this fear and main street is well aware of the economic impact (Jobs gets decimated).
Read 7 tweets
Sep 21, 2020
1/The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg less than two months before the presidential election tosses one more lit match into the tinderbox of national politics in 2020:
2/It will surely inflame a deeply polarised country already riven by a deadly pandemic, a steep economic downturn, and civil unrest in its major cities.

In Washington, the vacancy fight could ratchet up tensions to a level unseen even in the tumultuous Trump era.
3/He could also become the first president since Richard Nixon to install three justices on the high court in a single four-year term.

A successful GOP effort to replace Ginsburg with a conservative before or immediately after a Democratic victory will almost certainly lead to..
Read 5 tweets
Sep 18, 2020
1/TrackRecord's Market Observation of the Day 💭: Quad Witching Friday

Quadruple witching occurs on the third Friday of the month of every quarter (highest volatility occurs in the last hour of trading between 3:00pm - 4:00pm EST) , in March, June, September, and December. Image
2/It refers to the simultaneous expiration of single-stock options, single-stock futures, and stock-index options and stock-index futures which are settled at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
3/Options volumes tend to be particularly elevated during quad-witching periods, which may also account for some of the choppiness anecdotally associated with September as the worst-performing month (for stock markets).
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(