A partner at Collaborative Fund and author of the new book "The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed and Happiness." former columnist at The Motley Fool and WSJ, he is 2-time winner of the Best in Business Award from SABEW
1. Only 5 stocks driving markets 2. Recession is inevitable 3. Breadth is terrible 4. AI is a bubble 5. Debt ceiling = disaster 6. Problematic new lows 7. Consumers running out of money 8. Earnings will fail THIS Q 9. HH Debt! 10. Rally faltering
Let's see if I can find something to undercut each of those 10 items:
Only 5 stocks driving markets?
Then why are Equal-weighted indices doing so well?
What drives market returns? These rolling 10-year total returns going back to 1909 (via Crestmont Research) show an average ~10% annual total return over any 10-year long period.
Ed Easterling (of Crestmont) breaks down those returns into these components: EPS, Dividend Yield, and P/E Increase (or decrease).
Note how cyclical P/E expansion/contraction is...
This is why it is important to include whether P/Es are expanding or contracting in any definition of a bull or bear market.
It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes + 9.76 seconds to complete 1 orbit – to return to the exact same place relative to the sun. Our planet has done this about 4.54 billion times.
What does this unit of time have to do with investing?
Alas, utterly nothing...
This is an example of the irrelevant nature of the calendar - I'd be curious to see what the data looks like for successive rolling 12-month periods rather than calendar years; it might also be more useful than using January - December periods
The appeals court was sharply critical of the decision by Judge Cannon, a Trump appointee to intervene in the case. She lacked legitimate jurisdiction to order the review & there was no justification for treating a former POTUS differently from any other search warrant target.
"All three of the judges on the panel that ruled on Thursday were appointees of Republican presidents — and two of them, Andrew L. Brasher and Britt Grant, had been placed on the bench by Mr. Trump himself."