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Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯 Profile picture
@powerfultakes
Sep 5, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
The poll was conducted on Aug 20-26 (Navalny was poisoned on Aug 20). If Russian Presidential elections were to be held next Sunday, of those who'd vote, 56% of Russians would vote Putin & 2% for Navalny (Zhirik #2 with 5%). levada.ru/2020/09/03/dov… Image
One notable result I would point out - already strongly in evidence during 2020 Constitution referendum, which I blogged about - is the collapse of support for Putin amongst youth. 64% of participating 55+ y/o's would vote for Putin, while only 36% of 18-24 y/o's say they would. Image
There are otherwise no significant class or regional differences, though women (60%) are more likely to support Putin than men (50%).
WCIOM, conducted Aug 24-30 - former date is four days after Navaly poisoning - shows no change in Putin's ratings either. wciom.ru/index.php?id=2… Image
Alternatively, most Russians dgaf. A hard pill for the think-tank/Western NGO crowd to swallow.

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More from @powerfultakes

Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯 Profile picture
Jul 11
Russia lost ~250,000 soldiers to date, but in a war of attrition, the central question is ratios and their dynamics.

Far less attention devoted to Ukraine, but that's more important, because manpower is a bigger constraint for it (FWIW my estimate is 2x * UAlosses = ~150,000). Image
The "rate of advance" that people soy over is mostly irrelevant (except insofar as it hints at underlying manpower ratios, where Russia is slowly gaining in relative terms). Image
Currently it seems Russia recruits 30k & Ukraine 20k per month.

More, perhaps many more Russians, die. (Differential is unclear though, as in, is it 1.5x or 3x?; Russian advances means many Ukrainian bodies left behind won't be registered).

More Ukrainians desert (it's easier). Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯 Profile picture
Aug 3, 2024
🇺🇸🇮🇱 I call Israel to join the US as the 51st state

(1) This would mostly solve Middle East geopolitics. The US extends its security umbrella to Israel (formalizing what we all know to be a de facto reality anyway) while constraining independent Israeli adventurism.Image
Image
(2) Huge human capital boost to the US as 3M Ashkenazi Jews get full immediate access to its labor markets. American tech lead further augmented as Israel's R&D sector which punches well above its weight integrates into its technocapital machine.
(3) In particular, the Arsenal of Democracy is augmented disproportionately to just the GDP and human capital increase from adding Israel, in light of Israel's dense forest of military tech companies (esp. in drones and missile defense).
Read 8 tweets
Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯 Profile picture
Mar 16, 2024
🇷🇺 Russia Elections 2024 Thread

I'll be posting live coverage of interesting developments in the Russian elections here.

(Within a specific definition of "interesting", obviously said term doesn't apply to its outcome).
Result from exit poll at Russian Embassy in Prague (via Max Kats):
* Davankov - 66.5%
* Putin - 4.1%
* Spoiled ballot: 24.8%

Obviously, Prague is not representative of Russia; extremely so. And obviously you'd need to be "bold" to say you voted for Putin in a country where public support for Z is literally criminal. Still, safe to say pocket liberal candidate Davankov sweeps the board in most of the West.

This would be a change from previous elections, in which Putin/United Russia polled competitively against the "liberal" placeholder in 2012, 2016, 2018, etc, winning in most places outside the Anglosphere.
*
*

Russian Embassies abroad tallied the vote fairly in past elections. I wonder whether this will still be true this time round in light of the stupendous tilt against Putin that has unsurprisingly developed after the war. The differentials - 10% (?) for Putin in Western Europe and the US, 80% in Russia - would come off as a bit weird.akarlin.com/prokhorov-pres…
akarlin.com/russian-global…Image
Opinion Polls: A List

Compendium here:

VCIOM:

Putin consistently at 75%, Davankov up to 6%
State owned pollster

FOM:
Putin 80.8%, Kharitonov 5.7%, Slutsky 5.6%, Davankov 4.6% / turnout 69.8%
(This looks remarkably like kremlins' optimal result. Also unlike its standard polls has no demographic breakdowns).
State owned pollster

Levada: Curiously did not actually do a poll on Presidential elections - only on party popularity.
Private pollsters and "foreign agent"

Russian Field: Neither did they! Again, only question on parties.
Private pollster

(This is curious and notable because Levada & Russian Field are the two liberal-leaning opinion pollsters).

ExtremeScan:
New polling outfit, seems very oppositionist.
Putin 63% (down from 69% in Jan, with a notable 5% pt decline right after Navalny's death), Davonkov 4%

IRPZ
Obscure pollster cited by Boris Nadezhdin; of those decided:
Putin 73.1%, Davankov 11.9%, Kharitonov 6.8%, Slutsky 4.2%, spoiled 4.0% / 20% remain undecided

CIPKR
Putin 78-80%, Davankov 5-6%, Kharitonov 6-8%, Slutsky 5-6%, spoil ballot: 1-2%
Never heard of themen.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russ…
wciom.ru/ratings/vybory…
wciom.ru/analytical-rev…
fom.ru/Politika/14991
levada.ru/2024/02/29/rej…
russianfield.com/10days
extremescan.eu/ru
t.me/BorisNadezhdin…
cipkr.ru/2024/03/11/vyb…Image
Image
Read 18 tweets
Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯 Profile picture
Feb 17, 2024
This is one of the best maps for groking why colonialism could work c.1900 and one of the reasons it became unsustainable later on, and why why Europe's prominence in particular declined relative to both the US & the Rest. Image
France/Britain & US have ~equal population to Latam and Africa, respectively.

Why Turks once viewed Greeks as a real threat, difference when ratio is 1:1.7 vs. 1:6. akarlin.com/turkey-populat…
Conversely, imagine populations of Europeans had they kept their "weight" constant relative to Third World, proxied by say India: 200-300M Germans, Italians, French, English each.

Germany + France > USA. About as many ethnic Russians as Americans. Ofc impact on influence.
Read 6 tweets
Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯 Profile picture
Feb 16, 2024
NAVALNY DEATH

Initial thoughts:

(1) Almost certainly ordered or okayed by Putin. In retrospect, the theory that Navalny's disappearance in December was a trial balloon to gauge the public reaction - found to be encouragingly lackluster - to harsher measures has been vindicated.Meme h/t @devarbol
(2) The usual amusing preoccupation with symbolic dates, exactly one month before the Presidential elections (to which Navalny represented ~zero threat).
(3) But more amusing still is that Putin did it while poor @TuckerCarlson is performing cartwheels trying to humanize Russia for the American rightoid audience.

Just a never-ending series of humiliations for him - but what's the actual point?!
Read 8 tweets
Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯 Profile picture
Jan 14, 2024
XI POPULARITY

New study suggests that Xi's approval rating might be inflated by ~25% percentage points.

When asked directly: 95%. (In line with many other surveys showing 90%+).

cambridge.org/core/journals/…Image
But when tested as part of a list experiment, it plummets to 70%! Image
In list surveys there's a control and a treatment group which get a set of non-sensitive questions, but the control group also gets one "controversial" item. The respondents then say how many of the questions they agree with without actually ever answering the controversial one.
Read 7 tweets

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