All this goes back to the original sin of the Brexit negotiations: the refusal to be honest with the British public about the trade-offs involved. That has been bad for democracy, bad for British diplomacy and threatens very grave consequences for Northern Ireland. [1/4]
2. At the outset, the govt made three promises on Northern Ireland that were logically incompatible:
- no customs border between North & South;
- no customs border in the Irish Sea;
- no membership of the Single Market.
You can have any two of those, but you cannot have all three
- no customs border between North & South;
- no customs border in the Irish Sea;
- no membership of the Single Market.
You can have any two of those, but you cannot have all three
3. The govt should have been honest about that. Instead, it first denied there was a problem ("technology" or "Gatt 24" would fix it), then lied to the public about what it had negotiated & sold it at an election as an "oven-ready deal". A year later, it wants to rip that up.
4. Ultimately, Johnson can't swerve the choice on Northern Ireland. If the UK is outside the Single Market, there must either be checks in the Irish Sea or on the island of Ireland. If he legislates against the former, he'll get the latter. And God help the peace process. [ENDS]
