You love supporting entrepreneurs and are intrigued by the mental challenge of investing, so you're thinking about launching a fund. Let me make the case you should NOT launch a standard VC fund and you instead build new models like ours at @earnestcapital 👇
1/ It's going to be really really hard to make money. Valuations in early rounds have been bid up to insane levels by huge multi-stage funds that just view seed rounds as option value to put huge checks in at later rounds.
2/ You don't control your own destiny. Success in the traditional VC model is contingent on other VCs co-investing in your current round and others providing mark-ups by investing in the Series A,B,C...
2b/ Remember when you looked around at the existing VCs and thought "yeaaaa we can do better" and decided to toss your hat in the ring? Well you literally cannot succeed without them agreeing with you in this model.
3/ You really can't be very innovative or non-consensus. For the above reasons you can't actually be contrarian and succeed. Success involves being *just ahead* of consensus not truly bucking it
4/ It's going to take *forever* to make money through carry. VC-backed companies are staying private longer and longer. Enjoy waiting 10+ years before you actually start seeing any real money.
5/ Get ready to go back to high school. The dominant model in VC these days is "access VC" which is not about picking the best companies, but squeezing in an "allocation" into the "hot" deals. An actual thesis is not nearly as important as who you know
Here's why should consider building on the work we're doing at @earnestcapital or try something entirely different
1/ You can actually put entrepreneurs in business. Instead of grabbing a slice of a deal that would have happened whether you existed or not, you can be the person who gets conviction in a founder and writes the check that gets them rolling
2/ You can actually make money. Operating outside the VC paradigm means you're barely ever competing with other investors which means you can simply operate on fair terms for both parties
3/ You can actually be contrarian. Our "first check, last check" model means I could give a hoot what other investors think. On the rare occasion I have to coordinate with other investors, I'm reminded how much it sucks and how much better this model is. earnestcapital.com/fund-2/
4/ You can actually matter. There are too many people already trying to deploy the standard VC model and everything that happens there would have happened with or without your fund. Blaze your own trail! Back founders that wouldn't otherwise get funding! Matter!
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Ok folks, Feb marks 4 years since we started investing at @calmfund and it's time for a big update thread. It's been a challenging but insightful few quarters but I'm absolutely fired up about the road ahead. I'll cover what we've been up to, our strategy & the game plan for 2023
If you're new here, @calmfund is a fund built to support founders of calm companies that are capital efficient, grow sustainably, & built for the long term. Here is an overview of our high level investment thesis (we used to be called @earnestcapital btw):
"Calm company" is both an investing strategy and a mindset for founders looking to build a company in a manner that I call "being long-term ambitious" ... here are some of the key principles to give you a sense of what it means:
I think folks are sleeping on one of the biggest and most obvious "zero interest rate phenomena" that's going to get vaporized slowly and then all at once: Andreessen Horowitz
Here's my thesis:
In recent years a16z built an incredible machine to accumulate "assets under management" (AUM) to the tune of tens of billions of dollars. Nominally they were supposed to be doing venture capital—investing in startups and entrepreneurs—but really they were making a different play
As I laid out in 2021, they (along w hedge funds like Tiger) identified there were vast pools of capital searching for *any* returns in the zero-interest-rate wasteland and came up with a fundamentally different strategy from the traditional VC model
Good morning, AI-based tools will be a massive opportunity for calm companies, but a dud for VC. Here's my thesis:
1/ this market map will become an iconic case study of "was a feature not a product" with all of the value ultimately being split between the actual core AI platforms in the top left corner and incumbent software tools with distribution (mostly not shown) who will add AI features
2/ It's almost a meme/joke at this point, but the vast majority of these products are just (a) an API call to GPT-3 or similar platforms and (b) a thin layer of "prompt engineering"
This is the most nonexistent moat in the history of tech waves with no clear way to improve
✨ Cultivating a Calm Company ✨
A running thread of the most important things I have learned about building a calm company and being long-term ambitious as an entrepreneur. Let's go 🙏👇
People keep asking me "why aren't more investors using a strategy similar to @calmfund's"... the answer is very simple: it is *unbelievably* difficult to raise capital for an early stage fund that doesn't fit the traditional VC model. That's it.
For our first 3 small funds we had to raise money from nearly 200 individuals. I had to write 200,000 words of content and build a fully automated fundraising funnel such that for Funds 2 & 3, I didn't even speak to >half of the investors before they committed.
But those funds were "sub-scale" (<$10m)... in order to really address the market need, build a fully staffed team, and get the best returns for our LPs, we need to raise substantially larger funds (like $100m... still tiny in the scheme of things)
I looked at dozens (100s?) of crypto/web3 startups and projects the past few years. I felt obligated to not miss an opportunity for my LPs. With each one I asked a simple question: "does this do what it says it does?" and every. single. time. the answer was "it does not."
I'm talking about technical and logical due diligence of the basic claims being made about the technology with regard to utility, security, and decentralization. And every time I did a little homework, the answer was an obvious no.
I'm not a technical wizard or domain expert, but I (a) tried to learn as much as I good (b) asked dumb questions (c) paid attention to technical experts and (d) just thought hard about it a little bit. Turns out that was far more than 99% of investors were doing.