I wrote about permanent layoffs for the @markets newsletter today, and how even with an overall recovery that's clearly faster than expected, they're still getting worse at a quicker pace than the Great recession bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
@markets BTW, I think when thinking about the election, it's going to be extra-difficult to plug in some "economic fundamentals" into a model. Top-line GDP growth may be surging, and unemployment is coming down. But beneath the surface, deeper labor market pain is continues to grow.
A middle class, professional thinking about the state of the economy may have been extremely worried about their job in March/April. Then relatively sanguine in June/July, and then increasingly anxious August - October.
Now bear in mind that there's dual-Y axes here, but I think this chart really drives home how weird the situation is right now, and how hard it is to say whether the economy is improving or worsening. And why it may be impossible to gauge its electoral impact this time.
The Booming Crypto Use Case That's Happening Right Now
@tracyalloway and I talked to @CampbellJAustin, prof at Columbia biz school and financial markets veteran, about the rise of stablecoins, and the genuine breakthrough that they represent bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
I'd say if there's ever been an episode that came close to convincing me and @tracyalloway that there's a genuine, non-speculative use for open blockchains (e.g. Ethereum, Solana etc.), this is it.
@tracyalloway Austin does a fantastic job explaining how the existing banking and payments system work, and how stablecoins augment it. And specifically, how they augment the existing system in a way that the existing system isn't capable of upgrading towards on its own without crypto.
In today's 5 Things newsletter, I jotted down a bunch of random stuff about this moment in stocks, crypto, FX, and macro.
Here they are
1) It was clear instantly on Wednesday that Powell was going to be offsides this market:
2) To some extent, I think the way Powell was talking about "normalization" of the labor market didn't make any sense, almost regardless of what's going on with the economy right now.
3) Regardless of whether you think the Fed has made a mistake or not, the Fed is now clearly offsides. Remember on Wednesday Powell was still talking about the possibility of no cuts at all coming soon.
This is also extremely interesting how as organizations become more complex, it's almost inevitable that top management will have to rely more on financial information to understand what's going on, which is partly how you get situations like Boeing
Also really intrigued by his assertion that from a perspective of "corporate short-termism" that the explosion of private sector debt (in part driven by LBOs) is a greater contributor than the stock price.
How Corporations Learned The Maximum Amount They Can Charge For A Product
@tracyalloway and spoke with @ddayen and @owenslindsay1, who have published a special new edition of @TheProspect entirely about the new world of pricing strategies bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
- How companies got better at tailoring prices to you individually
- Price fixing by algorithm
- How every industry got airline-ified
- The booming world of ancillary revenue, and the consultants that teach companies how to max them out
- Trading data for lower prices
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The whole edition of the magazine is fascinating and varied. And well worth reading in full