Farzad Mostashari Profile picture
Sep 8, 2020 5 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ Some more peeks at age-specific COVID symptom trends from FB/CMU surveys at state level.

Here's Massachusetts and Maine

The rates are VERY LOW- the Northeast is the only oasis of green in the country on COVIDExitStrategy.org

but is there a worrisome trend developing? Image
2/ Look at the y axis for these states- GA/SC/TN/KY

Unlike MA/ME, they are persistently over 0.8% CLI rate , and heading thew wrong direction, including among the older age group.

Rising deaths will follow. Image
3/ The y axis jumps again-

MS and LA are very high, especially in youngest age group, but also 55+

They are also among the highest in test positivity.

We need to quench the outbreak in these states. If governments won't, then schools, businesses, families have to act Image
4/ I'm also worried about Florida

Like Texas, trends came down from the July peak. But unlike Texas, there was a second August wave among the young, and now an increase among the older population

Despite/Because official assertions, things will get worse usatoday.com/story/travel/n… Image

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More from @Farzad_MD

Mar 15
1/ I love reading the annual March MedPAC report to Congress on Medicare Payment Policy

such good, clear data and policy thinking.

kudos to @medicarepayment staff and chair @Michael_Chernew

I'll post some thoughts/highlights as I read through this morning
2/ My focus will be on the areas I know best
-Primary care
-Alternative payment models
-Medicare Advantage
-Competition and consolidation

The report is here for those following at home.

medpac.gov/document/march…
3/ Here's the first nugget from their core responsibility - recommending payment rates to congress that ensure beneficiary access to care

Clinicians are paid 140% of Medicare by commercial plans... but you wouldn't know that by working with independent practices (as I do) Image
Read 39 tweets
Feb 15
1/ After residency at Mass General Hospital, I reported to Atlanta to meet my fellow CDC Epidemic Intelligence Service Officers.

I have never felt so intimidated by my peers

The best and the brightest, they were star clinicians, had served in disaster zones; MD/PhDs and MSF.
2/ We were placed at various centers throughout CDC, learning from the world's experts- in tuberculosis, mosquito-borne diseases, food-borne diseases, ...

and some of us were placed with state & local Health departments to be on the front lines of outbreak response
3/ In my first day on the job, I got into a city sanitation car to investigate an outbreak of bloody diarrhea at a state psychiatric facility.

My boss has served in the EIS. Her boss, the legendary head of the NYC Bureau of Communicable Disease had also.

Our commissioner too.
Read 16 tweets
Jan 16
1/ A topic of great interest at #JPM was the "better than expected" 2026 Advance Rate Notice for Medicare Advantage that dropped on Friday

I dug into the numbers - let me share what it might portend for plans and risk-taking providers in MA, after a tough couple of years

(🚀)
2/ I have to say I'm surprised how often investors/analysts believe that government actions are fundamentally arbitrary and unpredictable

I believe most agencies will tell you exactly what they're doing and why, if you have the patience to wade into the weeds

(me: a former fed) Image
3/ The table most people see every year is this one.

Most of these numbers come straight from the actuaries, and there is basically no political interference in eg what number is put in the "Effective Growth Rate" box

instructive @KFFHealthNews interview
kffhealthnews.org/news/foster-re…Image
Read 20 tweets
Oct 29, 2024
1/ Is Value-Based Care working? After a decade, we know this:

The latest results for the largest such program just dropped.

Giving primary care accountability for total cost and quality of care is good for patients, good for practices, and good for society.

Let's dig in.
2/ As the press release says

480 ACOs providing care to nearly 11 million people with Medicare saved the gov't $5B dollars while improving quality of care

The gov't kept $2B

Providers earned an extra $3B

Beneficiaries saved on lower out-of-pocket spending-AND LESS SUFFERING
3/ Sure, there are alternatives!

We can cut benefits to seniors. That would save money.

We can cut pay for doctors. That would save money.

We can do Denials or "Utilization Management". That would save money.

Or we can incentivize more coordination and more primary care.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 12, 2024
1/ The annual quick read and analysis of the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that regulates the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) is upon us, folks.

like last year, there are a number of uncontroversial/incremental improvements

there are also a couple of head-scratchers..
2/ I will go through in roughly the same order as the excellent fact sheet:
cms.gov/newsroom/fact-…

and as usual, this builds on @Travis_Broome

x.com/Travis_Broome/…
3/ the starting point of the fact sheet is the right one.

there are 11M Medicare benes in the program and the most important goal of any changes should be to increase participation

Here they estimate by 4M over the next few years, towards goal of 100% participation

why? Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 30, 2024
1/ When Walmart enters any business you can expect that they will leverage their massive scale to get better economics, create value for customers- and drive out local mom and pop competitors

Thats what many assumed would happen w primary care clinics

but it didn't

why not?
2/ The first thing I have to acknowledge is to rule out "execution"

They aren't perfect (their Athena and Epic EMR travails show that) but Walmart knows how to execute, and they won't scale something until they've figured out how to make it profitable.

They couldn't
3/ To their credit, they tried a lot of permutations over the past 10 years, and strictly as an operator, you have to give them respect that they could be a force

- Third party vendor
- Walmart Health clinics
-Oak St Health
- Own clinics + telehealth

Read 16 tweets

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