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muji @ hhhypergrowth Profile picture
@hhhypergrowth
Sep 8, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Slaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack. Never been a fan of $WORK’s platform. Too many “free” options like Teams chipping away and now Chat. Yes yes automation is a differentiator. Is that enough?
Condolences to any holders. Intent was not to pile on, just never understood the appeal. On the plus side the growth has been very consistent — but that was probably what drove the sell off. Folks wanted more from the supposed tailwind.
Comparing to is what makes it so stark. Why is Slack not getting ANY of that massive tailwind that Zoom is?
Top line has steadied, bottom line is improving and company has many of the signs of success I look for... but the tech, platform and competitive landscape all told me “no” on .

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More from @hhhypergrowth

muji @ hhhypergrowth Profile picture
Aug 29, 2022
Another quarter, another chance for Palo Alto $PANW to completely change up how it tracks customer counts within its Next-Gen Security segments.

This company cannot decide on what the hell to report for custs on Prisma SASE (Zero Trust), Prisma Cloud (CNAPP), and Cortex (XDR).
This time in Q4, they morphed from "pure" SASE customers (Access + Cloudgenix) to now include PANOS SD-WAN (their other SD-WAN before Cloudgenix acquire) and "SaaS Security subs" (WTF that is).

So they last revised this KPI in Q1, and now revise it AGAIN in Q4. WTF!
All this does it further bury their Access (Zero Trust) customers in a sea of SD-WAN custs and now broader platform SaaS subs.

And if you want to compare the 3556 SASE customers reported in Q4, look to the footnotes in the Q3 and Q2 slides (3160 and 2915). (Sorry, no Q1!)
Read 6 tweets
muji @ hhhypergrowth Profile picture
Aug 4, 2022
Let's dig into $FSLY earnings a little more, beyond their new (to the company and the role) CEO.

Revenue +20.6%, flat QoQ, w/ a 0.5% beat.

Far cry from their "TikTok" high of +62% (pre SigSci), but better than the +14%, flat QoQ last yr (only +2.5% was organic).
/1
Margins have heavily eroded over last 6Qs.
* Adj Gross Margin 63.7% -> 50.4% !!
* Adj Op Margin -10.8% -> -26.2%

FCF Margin over last year went -29.7% -> -59.5% !!
/2
They added 14 net new customers. FOURTEEN. Mgmt blamed it on SMB churn on the call.

NRR LTM gone from 141% -> 117% over that time.

They have long dropped the ball on land, and are now dropping the ball on the expand too.
/3
Read 9 tweets
muji @ hhhypergrowth Profile picture
Aug 4, 2022
Fastly $FSLY hired a new CEO, ex Cisco EVP of Enterprise Networking & Cloud, starting in Sept.

investors.fastly.com/news/news-deta…

The lack of CEO experience worked out so well last time they decided to go for it again. Let's look at his background...
He came out of their Meraki division, which Cisco acquired back in 2012 for on-prem Wifi & network appliances that are managed centrally via a cloud-based platform. It has expanded into SD-WAN appliances, connected IoT, and mobile device mgmt. ...
Of course, an edge network is one giant software-defined network. But not sure how this appliance-heavy experience is relevant to running a global edge network with CDN, WAF, & serverless computing capabilities. ...
Read 4 tweets
muji @ hhhypergrowth Profile picture
Sep 27, 2021
Today is Cloudflare's 11th birthday. $NET

I greatly enjoyed this founders' letter that kicked off Birthday Week yesterday: blog.cloudflare.com/cloudflares-an…
... and hints of a few small things coming this week

"... driving down costs of core cloud services, pushing the boundary of our network to our customers' doorsteps, and investing in new technologies that may someday disrupt the web as we know it today"
which to me, reads as...
- transferring data between clouds & across the edge
- spreading the reach of the edge, like the Borg
- embracing web3/decentralization (as just stated on CloudflareTV kickoff by @eastdakota)
Read 4 tweets
muji @ hhhypergrowth Profile picture
Feb 19, 2021
An investment strategy: buy and forget
Another: buy and shift (from low to strengthening convictions)
Another: actively trade a well understood core
Another: actively trade market / momo
Another: bungle around just jumping on tips

(I am “buy and shift”)
A concentration strategy: widely diverse port
Another: concentrate to highest of diverse convictions
Another: heavily concentrated into conviction (under 12)

(I am “heavily concentrated”)
Selection strategy: pick specific themes or industries or sec trends to ride
Another: deeply understand a concentrated core
Another: use a selection service or trading platform
Another: pick an open guru and follow blindly

(I am “deeply understood core” in “specific themes”)
Read 6 tweets
muji @ hhhypergrowth Profile picture
Feb 18, 2021
I am not impressed with $FSLY's performance or mgmt ... yet again.

Rev +40%, decelerating -4pp YoY. That isn't the issue; they are usage based and bounce around.

But it's their first Q of SigSci -- adj out the $6M (an analyst had to wiggle out in Q&A), and they grew 30%.
Sorry, but for my rules, 30% rev growth is NOT hypergrowth.

Looking forward, guidance for Q1 was 32-36% YoY growth, but again adj out SigSci's expected 8M, and it's really 19-24% YoY. Terrible! Clearly no Compute@Edge contribution either.
Customer growth was +20% and enterprise custs slower at +12% (+3.5% seq). This is where I see the fracture in execution - you cannot scale if you aren't intaking new custs at a rapid rate.

Good news here: A new CRO was hired, hopefully to correct this.
Read 9 tweets

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