Hey, what ever happened to the "COVID kids develop Kawasaki disease" storyline that was used to terrify parents back in April or May?

Well, the CDC didn't forget - they published a report on August 4 on the... wait for it... *565* total cases in the US.

Through September 3, there have been about 515K cases of COVID-19 in children.

There are roughly 55 million school-aged children in the US.

So, to recap:

- Less than 1% of all school-aged children in the US have tested positive for COVID;

- Of those, about 0.1% developed Kawasaki-like disease (MIS-C);

- Of THOSE, only 1.8% (10 total persons) died.

So, I wonder why you never heard these numbers?
Surely the New York Times will be issuing an update to the THREE articles they published between May 5 and May 13 on this subject?

@PamBelluck - has there been any discussion of additional coverage? I personally know several parents who were alarmed.

Just to drive home how small these numbers are - here are the top causes of death from 2018.

- 13 times more children died of strokes and aneurysms than the 10 known to have died of MIS-C/COVID;
- Twice as many kids died of cancer than EVER HAD MIS-C/COVID.

Infintesimal risks.

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More from @malkusm

22 Aug
Something that people have a hard time grasping:

Taking COVID-19 seriously and demanding transparent, accountable, science-based government are not mutually exclusive.

I'd demand answers to questions about our policy response even if the death toll were 100x what it is today.
Good public policy should:
- Properly assess the risk and the benefit of action
- Properly assess the cost of each action & weigh it against the benefit
- Be clearly communicated to the public, including specific goals
- Be non-arbitrary (i.e. grounded in logic, facts, relevant data)
- Account for ALL stakeholders, i.e. all members of society (rich, poor, young, old, etc)
- Be re-evaluated regularly as part of a discussion involving the public (not by decree)
Read 4 tweets
5 Aug
Meet Steven Manzo, a tragic casualty of lockdown. A recovering addict who overcame so much, and had so much life ahead of him.


Next time you advocate for the closure of a business, school, or other aspect of society, remember Manzo.

Then multiply his case by...
5,000: Roughly the increase in national overdose fatalities from March to May, based on these % increases above the CDC's 2018 baseline. washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07…
10,000: The estimated increase in breast & colorectal cancer deaths over the next 10 years due to missed cancer screenings. "This analysis is conservative," says the author, director of the U.S. National Cancer Institute. science.sciencemag.org/content/368/64…
Read 14 tweets
29 Jul
Let's take a trip down #SARSCoV2 memory lane, shall we?

Here's one of the big misses from early estimates which informed @IHME_UW modeling, and ultimately policymakers: "15-20% of those who contract [COVID] will need hospitalization," said Dr. Fauci.
As some started to realize that there would be no avoiding the virus here in the US, hospital capacity was the singular focus. It was never about suppression.

After all, we only have so many hospital beds, PPE, etc - we needed to "flatten the curve."
By March 6, we're approaching the critical days when the world began to change. We had compelling visuals on what it meant to "flatten the curve":
- Buy time
- Reduce peak health care utilization
- Prolong the epidemic at manageable levels
Read 17 tweets
28 Jul
COVID+ athletes have been big in the news recently. The Miami Marlins had an outbreak in the last 24 hours. It's the latest in a laundry list of news stories about athletes testing positive.

Should we be concerned?

You be the judge - here is the breakdown of symptom severity.
No doubt, in rare cases, COVID can cause health complications & lingering issues. This is the case of Red Sox pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez, who is experiencing lingering cardio issues. He's in the <2% of "Severe Illness" group (and <1% with lingering effects)
Far more common, though, are cases such as Russell Westbrook: Athletes who test positive are completely asymptomatic nearly 60% of the time - and that number is growing since May, as leagues return and regular testing is implemented. rocketswire.usatoday.com/2020/07/22/rus…
Read 9 tweets
17 Jul
START/ This thread contains all-cause mortality charts for children aged 0-14 for every country tracked by the Human Mortality Database (mortality.org).

Due to the large number of countries, this thread will be posted in two installments, one on 7/17, one on 7/18.
1/ Finland: We start with Finland because it's unusual. There was a tragic school shooting in 2007 which appears in this data. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jokela_sc…

I post Finland first to provide a sense of scale: That very large spike is the result of 9 fatalities.

Very small numbers.
2/ Belgium: We continue with Belgium, which is among the highest per-capita mortality rates from COVID in the world.

Yet, there is no evidence of this when looking at the childhood mortality data.
Read 27 tweets
14 Jul
The Human Mortality Database, jointly run by UC-Berkeley and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany, is publishing weekly mortality rates by age group for the US and most European countries, dating back to 2000.

Here is Swedish data on school-aged children.
"Yeah, Matt, but what about the teachers?"

Well, if the teachers in Sweden were also age 15+ in 2015-16 (and they were), then they can take heart! They've lived through a higher-risk environment than the COVID-19 pandemic. This age group covers all working-age adults.
So, where is the excess mortality coming from?

Well, of course, from the age 85+ demographic, where 40% of Sweden's deaths reside. Note that even here, there is higher mortality as recently as January 2000 - but, this was before substantial medical advancements. Here's the risk.
Read 4 tweets

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