The Tories are trading on old divisions. Johnson pulling that "Starmer is a remainer" shtick is old hat. When jobs dry up and food gets expensive, Johnson will find that voters can be as fickle as he is. What worked in the last parliament won't cut it after January.
Corbyn was always the "backstop" for the Tories. So long as he was in place they could keep abusing their power without consequence. They haven't quite adjusted to the new reality. Like Wile E Coyote running over the cliff, they haven't looked down yet.
The Tories must know by now that Johnson is a spent man. They know he has to go even if they're not yet publicly admitting it. But who have they got to replace him who isn't tainted? When it comes to political talent, the cupboard is bare.
This is the fatal weakness of the Tories, and though theyve got their no deal Brexit in the bag they have no idea what to usefully do with it, and by way of not acknowledging reality they won't be anticipating the ambushes waiting for them. Their problems are only just beginning.
Patel has already bumped into problems with international law over asylum and Johnson is hogtied by his own deal. But wait til they discover the galaxy of international law and global regulation that exists over and above the EU. Sovereignty does not mean a free hand.
But worst of all, all the things they said wouldn't happen, most definitely will. It's all there in the Notices to Stakeholders and has been for some time. Johnson will try to deflect the blame but there's no hiding from this. These bozos are done for.

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More from @LeaveHQ

10 Sep
1. Some have accused The Leave Alliance of being a "remainer troll account". This is both offensive and inaccurate. We are a leave campaign - but we did not swear an oath of loyalty to the Tories or the #Brexit Party. We owe them nothing. We seek to uphold the values of Brexit.
2. The referendum of 2016 was to decide whether we leave or remain in the EU. Nothing more, nothing less. There was never a plan or a consensus on what should happen after. Brexiteers don't own that. That must be an inclusive debate. The principle of self-determination.
3. For an age, the United Kingdom has freely engaged as an independent country in alliances and treaties with other countries. It has a long history of entering into commercial agreements and conventions at an inter-governmental level. We wish to uphold that tradition.
Read 16 tweets
8 Sep
The reason the sea border is there is because Boris Johnson put it there. Not because it was better - but for political theatricals - pretending to his gullible supporters that he was the conquering hero who could reopen the deal where May could not. And they bought it.

This was never anything to do with getting the right deal. It was purely an act of cynical electioneering and an exercise to satisfy the vanity of Johnson. Everything he does is for political expediency. Boris first, party second, the UK a distant third.
They knew the consequences. They knew it was a charade - but their pals in the Tory press - Fraser Nelson, Allister Heath and all the little toryboy columnists went along with it. They never gave a toss about #Brexit. It was just about installing the fat oaf.
Read 4 tweets
2 Sep
1. Easy to see what Frost is playing at now. They're trying to get standalone deals in areas they want, leaving the rest for later, or not at all, (while the EU wants a single overarching deal).
2. Frost thinks the EU will cave and go for something rather than nothing, which is precisely what the UK wants, therefore it can afford to hold out (or thinks it can). They are gravely mistaken.
3. The EU works to an all or nothing principle, and it is not going to fall for the UK's manipulation. We are at grave risk of getting nothing. At the last minute, the UK could realise that EU is not going to cave, and then will scrabble at the last minute for anything it can get
Read 4 tweets
1 Sep
1. Aid spending is essential for the UK. Some African states don't want "free trade". They rely on tariffs as a source of government income. They are easier to collect and their internal revenue collection is poor. In some regions there's nothing to tax.
2. Many of these countries suffer from corrupt governments who, because they get by on income from mineral wealth, are not accountable to taxpayers - the few that their are. Thus the aim is to help them build their own alternative tax base.
3. Abolishing tariffs on African goods doesn't do much for them if they can't meet EU/UK standards. Consequently aid is needed for capacity building. But that's no good if trade infrastructure is poor. ie bad roads, antiquated ports.
Read 22 tweets
1 Sep
1. #Brexit thread!

A fishing deal is proving to be an obstacle with the EU. The EU has an extremely rigid negotiating position that essentially amounts to replicating the quota shares that exist now. Britain hasn't made a workable counter offer.
2. Britain is wants annual talks with the EU on fishing rights, but is deeply resistant to the idea of giving the EU long-term guarantees about access to British waters and quotas. EU uncomfortable with the uncertainty.
3. Brexiteers argue that the EU negotiates annually with the Norway and demands the EU offers the UK a similar arrangement. But, as ever, it's more complicated than that. The Norway fishery only covers three species in defined areas, which makes management fairly simple.
Read 8 tweets
1 Sep
1. The #ForeignAid debate follows a familiar pattern. Cherrypicked and distorted examples of "waste", years out of date, to paint a picture of incompetent civil servants flinging cash at dictators and dodgy consultants. It does happen but it's a grossly unfair portrait of UK aid.
2. The more egregious examples stem from the Blair era but we closed a lot of it down in 2011. What remains is export finance, investment and technical assistance. Much of the fabled excesses are complete fabrications by the Daily Mail.
3. The debate is distorted because aid is such a wide subject header much like trade with multiple methods and disciplines all interrelated. To say "aid doesn't work" is to write off a galaxy of foreign policy initiatives. It's stinking populism.
Read 17 tweets

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