1. Tesla made a big bull run precovid when it rallied to 190 2. Covid crash pulled the stock down, no fault of Tesla and the stock pulled back to 50-week ma of 80 3. Covid recovery happened and this stock rallied early and broke out above > 190
Tesla stock took a leadership position and rallied from 200 to 340. It was an insane rally.
The stock then went quiet and the board announced a stock split on August 11 and the stock made another insane move from 275 to 500
Now there is nothing left to price in
Tesla is now the top 20 most valuable company in the world
Every stock witnesses an insane momentum and once the momentum fizzles out, it becomes a difficult volatile stock to trade.
Nobody knows the trajectory now. It can bounce from here at 50 dma or sell off to 275
The point I am trying to make
Yes, Tesla will be volatile
day traders will love it
but will Tesla be a great investment buy at the current market price....I doubt it for now.
It has been squeezed to limits. I will stay away
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Let's teach some basic economics to educated idiots:
How fuel price @100 today is different and better than fuel price @100 back in 2013:
It was a hyperinflationary period in India and higher fuel prices were adding more fuel to inflationary expectations killing economic growth
Fuel price @100 today is adding more taxes to Govt kitty. It's easy to collect and helping Govt to plug in some deficits. The inflationary environment is benign. The value of Rs. 100 today is a lot less than Rs. 100 nine years back. It's not apple to apple comparison
Nine years back, when a consumer paid Rs. 100 a liter for petrol, a huge component of that went to Oil-producing nations. Today, a huge component goes to your Govt.
Tell me which option is better.
Lots of people do not understand dividend growth investing. It does not mean investing in a stock that gives you a high dividend yield. Actually, doing that leads to more destruction of wealth.
Dividend Growth investing is positioning for high yield income in the future. Example:
You buy a strong company that's available at a 3% dividend yield right now. But has a track record of increasing dividends and is a growth story, not a dead business
Two components
Dividend Payout ratio i.e. How much profit is distributed as dividend [Example: 40%. If it makes a profit of $1, it gives 40 cents as dividend] It means management has headroom to increase the payout
Profit Growth: As profit grows, same payout means more dividend
Distributed Supply Chain means more market share for Indian Pharma Supply Chain and Chemical companies faciliatetd by
Anti China sentiment and Atmanirbhar Policy (domestic manufacturing for domestic consumption)
Accelerated Digitization of Global companies to drive big deals for Indian Tech companies and Remote working to drive high margin offshoring which can be done in Tier 2 Tier 3 town. It means low-cost scaling. It's a structural reset for Indian IT companies
No wonder there has been a big bull market in
Reliance
IndiaMart/Naukri
Pharma
Specialty Chemicals
IT
Reading Price Action is all about reading price moves and then investigating fundamental reasons to find out if this is for real...
The real issue...have an open mind of why something is happening
It helps you discover great ideas very early
Let me share some examples:
During last week of March, US Secretary of State Pompeo tweeted about his phone conversation with Indian Foreign Minister and reconfig of Pharma Supply Chain
It started the bull market in Pharma. I covered it as a Buy smarketpremium.com
When Pharma/Chemical became the theme, then all you had to look out for a breakout
IOL Chemicals at 265 now at 773
Granules at 155 now at 369
Glenmark Pharma at 315 now at 493
Balaji Amines at 500 now at 873
Alembic Pharma APLL at 740 now at 943
Solara Activa at 780 now at 1003
The market always makes sense in hindsight. Let me share why the market has been crazy about Tesla since Nov 2019.
Once upon a time i.e. before Oct 2019: Tesla was known for missing delivery targets, production milestones. Musk was never considered good at managing expectations
Tesla's factory in Shanghai changed that perception for good. That was the biggest shock element for the market which was extremely bearish on Tesla. There were people who had bet everything that Tesla would go down to zero.
The world turned upside down
Stock Price movement is a function of how people are positioned in the stock which usually reflects expectations and when that change...the price movement is dramatic.
Breakout to new high is the starting point of a new journey