and reading a nice piece on the economic impact of the Conference by a colleague, I reread parts of Etienne Mantoux's "La paix calomniee".
It is a long and v. detailed book. In many instances (data, forecasts) he shows that Keynes was wrong.
Yet the book also showcases the ineffectiveness of many such "debunking" books. The strength of "The ECP" was not in the estimates of Belgian coal production, but in seizing on the political madness of the treaty & in the use of powerful imaginary.
Keynes was always served well by his ability to deploy the language as a weapon and to focus on the key issue. So he comes out almost entirely unscathed after 300 pages of continuous attack.
(And even Mantoux has to agree the Treaty was politically unwise).
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I mentioned most of this (informally) at a Europa conference in Madrid several days ago.
Europe should stop living in the 1990s. There is no End of History anymore. Things have changed.
EU's economy is declining but it continues to dispense gratuitous lessons to the world. Latvia teaches China--a country that has performed the greatest economic miracle in history--what it should do.
In foreign affairs, EU results are negative to disastrous.
It started the war in Libya and left the country in permanent ruin & civil war.
Most of EU members participated in the illegal war on Iraq which, like the Russan war against Ukraine, was in clear violation of the UN charter. It is bizarre that they now complain.
EU has produced no plans or blueprint to end the war in Ukraine. It simply criticizes Trump's.
It has willfully ignored the war in Gaza and de facto supported mass ethnic cleansing and worse (the G word).
It has done nothing to reduce conflicts in Africa, a continent to which it is the closest.
It has gratuitously, through its propaganda, made relations with China worse.
Every couple of years, a fundamental misunderstanding between the East and the West of Europe reappears re. the WW2. In the occupied Western parts, life went on as before. Sartre continued writing & his plays were shown in theaters. Simone kept on sipping coffee at Les deux magots. Literary soirees were celebrated. People went to their jobs. Some food items became unavailable, and people listened to Radio London. Life in Paris, Brussels, Copenhagen, Amsterdam went on as before except for occasional raids on Jewish people.
In countries that were Nazi allies, things were even better: Italy, Austria (Anschluss), Finland, Croatia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Vichy France: things were broadly normal. Many more joined Nazi militia and Waffen SS than resistance.
In countries, that were neutral but in realty pro-Nazi (Sweden, Switzerland, Spain) life went on normally too. In a really neutral Portugal, even more so. My favorites are restaurants in Barcelona that opened up in 1943.
So that was the war in the West.
In the East, it was entirely different. It was a war of extermination. Not only because of the Holocaust (esp. in Poland & USSR), but also because of 3 million Soviet POW who were starved to death in iron cages...
A strange disease has taken hold of the left: to bemoan loss of wealth of billionaires, The billionaires' commander-in-chief has decided to cut to size other billionaires. He has driven the stock market down. It is understandable that other billionaire and their think-tanks decry such a policy. But why should the left do the it?
Esp. if you know that in the US and other advanced economies 60% of households have 0 or trivial amount of income from financial wealth. Moreover, financial income for the other 40% is so heavily concentrated that the losers are only 3-4% of the population--the richest ones. The measure is clearly super progressive.
(My next Substack on this theme.)
Percentage of country’s population that has zero or negligible annual income from capital ownership
What were the great revolutions I witnessed in my life?
The first & really big was the Iranian revolution. I had many Iranian friends. They were all anti-Pahlavi. But quickly they split into two or three camps. The revolution had global resonance: I remember that my father disagreed with my mother over it. In Belgrade! They had no dog in the fight. But it was big.
Reagan's revolution was also big. He upended things. Pushed back against the USSR that foolishly invaded Afghanistan the year before & not only went into a war it could not win, but challenged the basis of the Cold War order. Reagan was a Cold Warrior who wished for peace.
The third was Solidarnosc & Walesa. They not only came suddenly from nowhere but created a 10-milkon strong workers' movement in opposition to a (seemingly) workers' state. It reshuffled all ideological stereotypes. It was impossible to classify as left or right.
Consider income composition in socialism and developed capitalism. They are fairly similar. The differences are in the lack of income from K, greater family-related transfers, and quasi-absence of direct taxes (other than proportional flat wage taxes) in socialism.
Then extremely low skill premium of 3-5% vs 18-70% for West European countries (and even more in the US).
Then, much less redistributive social transfers. While UK/Ireland had very pro-poor transfers, socialist countries had flat transfers. Thransfers depended on family composition and were about the same regardless of underlying income.
This is the second year that in my teaching I spend two hours discussing income inequality under socialism, the way it was, not normative stuff. The most important thing is to tell students that socialism is not capitalism with less inequality. The logic of the system was entirely different.
The salient points.
Nationalization of capital & end of incomes from K reduces inequality directly.
Wage compression: very low skill premium. Explained both by free schooling and ideological preference for less skilled workers.
Relatively large (but not larger than in modern capitalism) social transfers directed toward families and old-age persons.
Large but almost totally flat direct taxes, mostly in the for of a wage tax.