My column this morning ventures into science fiction: what if everyone who was infectious glowed orange like the children in the Ready Brek ads?
The answer: the virus would be extinct in humans within a month.
This, basically, is the promise of super-fast, super-cheap testing: test everyone, all the time, and the problem goes away (as @paulmromer said many months ago).
A few problems, though:
a) We don't have billions of rapid tests, and as @deeksj reminds us the testing industry is long on promises and short on solid evidence.
b) Boris Johnson has said it will happen - so obviously it won't.
c) Cheap tests will be ropey and unreliable.
AND YET. I argue that if even an unreliable test can be invaluable if it is used in a smart way. (Thanks to @joshgans for helping me think through this, although he should be held blameless for the result.) ft.com/content/059684…
Just one more reminder, by the way, of the vital importance of information in this pandemic. There's a lot of statistical theatre, slippery targets, misinformation and noise around. But there are also some heroic data detectives doing their best to understand what we face.
PS If you believe the truth matters, want to understand the numbers better, and want to read a book that 'dispels the clouds of deceit and delusion' ( @stephenfry ) then I have a suggestion: timharford.com/books/worldadd…
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This is my father-in-law, Eamonn Monks. He was born in Dublin in 1933 and came to the UK in the mid 1950s. At first he lived in London, where he trained as a dentist and met his future wife, Brigid.
But later Eamonn and Brigid moved to Poulton-le-Fylde, outside Blackpool. This Irish immigrant became a pillar of the local community, caring for the community’s aching teeth before becoming a dentist for the prison service. The Northwest was lucky to have him…
…and his amazing children, who became a) Britain’s best baker b) One the UK’s finest audiologists c) The founder of an amazing mental health charity in Hackney d) the driving force behind Liverpool’s parks and green spaces and e) An award winning portrait photographer...
Why children can be better than adults at spotting misinformation: ft.com/content/157d51…
For the past few months I've been trying to figure out how to help 9-13 year olds make sense of the world (and particularly the numbers that describe it).
It might seem an umpromising task...
Most adults struggle with complex statistics and many feel powerless to evaluate almost any claim in the form of a number. An unnervingly large minority doubt straightforward claims. If the adults can’t cope, what hope do pre‑teens have?
Oo, first glimpses inside The Truth Detective, which is out next week! Ollie Mann has done a wonderful job bringing my ideas to life.
For those asking, the book is aimed at 9-13 year olds, although I keep having to confiscate my copy from the grown-ups...
Here's one of our Truth Detectives, Muhammad Yunus, microfinance pioneer and advocate of the "worm's eye view"...
Here's magician Derren Brown tossing a coin and getting ten heads in a row - with NO MAGIC REQUIRED.
How is it done?
Large complex projects have a habit of going wrong - sometimes catastrophically wrong. Just ask @dgardner and @BentFlyvbjerg, authors of the well-worth-your-time new book "How Big Things Get Done"
But @BentFlyvbjerg has found that if large complex projects are built up from repeated modular elements, the same gloomy tendency does not apply. Modular projects are less likely to overrun and vastly less likely to overrun catastrophically. Why is this?
If if may permitted some mild grumpiness, I present my opinionated guide to bad email etiquette. Whether you’re a cubicle dweller or a corporate communications supremo, here are the seven types of email you should never send... ft.com/content/5700be…
1) The email reminding me that my 7.34am train tomorrow departs at 7.34am. Or that I will need to bring my passport if I want to get on the plane. Stuff changes (especially these days) so these emails must be read. But they're an insult to the 99% least incompetent customers.
2) The omnibus email. On and on it goes, rambling like a pub storyteller. Generally if you have three different things, three short emails will be better; then I can deal with each one in turn. Also...
Tell me, people, is there a sexier word in the English language than "storage"? ft.com/content/557fd6…
Ah, okay. You may be right. But that's a problem. In today's column I ask whether we're skimping on storage (I think we are, even after accounting for hindsight) - and if so, why.
Part of the problem is that the "storage business model" is regarded with distaste. Start a business in which you fill warehouses with PPE, toilet paper, bottled water, bottles of cooking gas, and rice, then sell it all on at a profit when there's trouble; you'll not be thanked.