There's some bizarre analysis floating around that everything is peachy.

No, it's not.

Infection is spreading to the elderly and if things don't change pronto, we're going to be back in deaths-every-day territory within the next fortnight.
The most vulnerable age group are the very elderly.

For most of the summer, they were being very well protected, to the point we saw these low numbers:

July and August *combined*:

Over 85 years old:

Cases: 21
Admitted to hospital: 3
21 cases in 2 months was great.

September, *so far*:

Over 85 years old:

Cases: 39
Admitted to hospital: 9

Statistically, around 10 of those are going to die soon, this week and the next few weeks, but that can easily rise to 15 depending on their underlying health.
And that's just the over 85's.

The picture is little better in the 75-84 age group, another very vulnerable age group.

July and August *combined*, (75-84):

Cases: 60
Admitted to hospital: 17

September, *so far* (75-84):

Cases: 45
Admitted to hospital: 8
The next most vulnerable age group is 65-74 and again, it's all bad news.

July and August *combined*, (65-74):

Cases: 126
Admitted to hospital: 14

September, *so far* (65-74):

Cases: 71
Admitted to hospital: 11
We have essentially seen the last 2 months combined within the first 10 days of September, in the elderly.

I'm promising you if these trends continue we will see dozens of deaths in the coming weeks, and if it worsens beyond that, hundreds of deaths in October.
People need to wake up and stop downplaying this on the spurious basis that it's not as bad as April.

Great, so what?

April is in the past. Forget April. It's gone.

The focus is on saving lives in the present and near-future.
We've gone from 8 confirmed cases in hospital to 53 confirmed cases.

People are like "oh well 53 is a lot lower than April", instead of noting it's 7 times worse than July.

None of these trends are good and there's a weird relativity in people analysing them.
Every one of us has to slightly modify our behaviour.

It's not radical changes that are needed, it's small ones.

Wash your hands even once more daily. Try reduce close contacts by 1 person for the week. Try socialise outdoors if it's not raining. Remember to wash your mask.
Small incremental adjustments when multiplied by 5 million, add up to a big adjustment.

If things continue as they are, there will be lots of death upcoming.

"Sure it's not as bad as April" isn't going to lessen the grief of the loved ones left behind.

Redouble efforts.

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More from @Care2much18

13 Sep
Based on current cases, rate of infection, average length of time to death and case fatality rate by age group, we will see 10-15 deaths in the coming week and 40-50 deaths in the next 21 days.

If this level of infection carries on into the winter, we are goosed.
There has been 179 cases in the first 12 days of September in the over 65 age groups.

For the entirety of the summer (June, July, August) there was 297 cases in the over 65's.

We are fast approaching the entire summer amount of cases within the first 3 weeks in September.
The Case Fatality Rate in those age groups has improved slightly globally, and in Ireland, partly thanks to improved and refined treatment with cheap steroids like Dexamethasone.

But it is not a drastic reduction and you're still looking at substantial fatality rates.
Read 9 tweets
8 Sep
In the last month, there was 244 cases in the over 65 age groups.

In the 2 months prior to that, June 8th to August 8th, there was 119 cases.

Infection has quadrupled in the over 65 age groups.

It's an absolute certainty we will see plenty of deaths if these trends continue.
In the last month, there has been 29 people over 65-years-old admitted to hospital.

In the 2 months prior to that, there was 21 people admitted in the over 65 age groups.

Hospital admissions have trebled among older people.
Both sickness and death lag behind infection.

In terms of ICU, 25%-30% of deaths occur after 14 days in ICU, with 10%-15% of deaths occurring after 30 days.

This is an illness where people put up long fights and, as a result, all of those metrics lag behind.
Read 5 tweets
8 Sep
This is Trump-esque nonsense.

His argument is that 1,677 out of 1,777 had underlying clinical conditions and therefore only 100 died in Ireland.

It shows a complete misunderstanding of everything and is a repulsive argument at its core.
An 80-year-old with Type 2 Diabetes has a life expectancy of nearly 8 years.

An 80-year-old with hypertension, Type 2 Diabetes and COPD has a life expectancy of 3 years.

You can, and often do, find elderly people with a dozen underlying conditions who survive 5 years.
We are all "dying anyway" from the moment we are born.

The idea that Covid accelerating deaths doesn't count because of underlying conditions is an argument devoid of understanding just how long people live with multiple underlying conditions.

It's also devoid of empathy.
Read 5 tweets
8 Sep
Global Covid deaths by month:

May: 139,963
June: 140,217
July: 169,024
August: 171,713

The issue from an Irish perspective is because nobody is dying here, we get lulled into complacency. The reality is the pandemic worsened through the southern hemisphere winter, not subsided.
The other issue is Europe are heading into the winter with far too high a baseline of infection, with hospital and ICU admissions rising.

Everything about winter is conducive to easier spread, it's why Flu does so well. It's colder and darker, people spend more time indoors.
Everything suggests September will clock in over 200,000 dead.

-India are seeing huge case numbers.
-US numbers in ICU still sky high.
-Brazil, Mexico and Argentina have 7,500 more in ICU today than they did on July 1st.
-France, Spain hospital admissions surging.
Read 4 tweets
6 Sep
In the coming weeks, a lot of people are going to die in Europe and some are remarkably blasé or uninformed about it.

Europe-wide trends are following Florida trends of high case loads in young people translating to rising ICU admissions and death after a 4-week lag:
Cases in Europe (excluding Russia):

July 26th - Aug 1st: 81,923
Aug 2nd - Aug 8th: 109,026
Aug 9th - Aug 15th: 122,165
Aug 16th - Aug 22nd: 150,336

From the end of July to the 3rd week in August weekly cases doubled. 150,000 cases per week is a lot of infection.
Total number of people in ICU in Europe (excluding Russia):

July 26th - Aug 1st: 2,835
Aug 2nd - Aug 8th: 2,878
Aug 9th - Aug 15th: 2,880
Aug 16th - Aug 22nd: 2,874

So while cases in younger people were rising dramatically Europe-wide, the picture in ICU was very stable.
Read 13 tweets
3 Sep
I'll show how the situation in France and Spain has developed over the last while.

The patterns are remarkably consistent.

They begin with young people driving case loads and more slowly it begins to impact the elderly. It should concern us all here.
This is a graph showing clusters by week in France.

From the end of week 27 (July 5th) to the end of week 31 (August 2nd), you see a steady rise in cases associated with clusters (This graph was produced on Day 1 of Week 35 so ignore the drop-off).
Throughout that slow rise period, it was mostly young people contracting Covid19 and it was not leading to increased hospital admission or death among the elderly.

There's a "But..." coming.
Read 12 tweets

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