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Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
@Sustainable2050
Sep 11, 2020 • 30 tweets • 13 min read • Read on X
Busy times in the Atlantic Ocean. Image
Tropical Storm Sally just formed near the southern tip of Florida. Looks like it will end up as a hurricane near New Orleans, on Tuesday. Image
Latest NHC update on Sally: now forecast to hit the New Orleans area as a cat. 2 hurricane with winds of 160 km/h (100 mph). But more rapid intensification over the warm waters of the Gulf is still possible. Image
Hurricane-to-be #Sally could bring 3 meters of storm surge and 600 mm of rain:
A hyper-active Atlantic Ocean today: hurricane Paulette closing in on Bermuda, tropical storms Sally (approaching the northern Gulf coast) and Teddy, and tropical depressions Rene and Twenty-One. Image
And... there is Vicky! Only Wilfred to go now, and then this year’s supply of names for Atlantic tropical cyclones is finished. Over to the Greek alphabet then.
In the meantime, #Sally rapidly strengthened into a hurricane. At 10 am CDT, it's winds were 105 km/h (65 mph) @NHC_Atlantic expected it to take 36 hours to achieve winds of 145 km/h (90 mph).
Just 90 minutes(!) later, it had already happened. ImageImage
This #Sally has rapidly become an impressive hurricane. @NHC_Atlantic now expects it to strengthen to at least 170 km/h wins before landfall, and more than that.
Major flooding from storm surge and massive rainfall in any case. Poor Louisiana.
Sustained winds speeds in hurricane #Sally already up to 160 km/h (100 mph) now. Forecast bumped up to 175 km/h (110 mph).
Coastal areas already affected; exact timing of landfall uncertain. Image
Heavy storm surge expected around New Orleans, due to hurricane #Sally: 6 foot = 1.8 meters.
Hurricane #Sally update: Winds down (to 140 km/h), rainfall forecast up: 250-500 mm of rain expected, with 750 mm (a year's worth, here in NL) possible in some places.

nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M…
"Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday.", warns @NHC_Atlantic
Hurricane #Sally still taking up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, while already dumping heavy rain on coastal areas.
Unexpectedly, hurricane #Sally is getting stronger just before making landfall in Mississippi/Alabama. Winds now 145 km/h (90 mph).

(picture: @wildweatherdan) Image
Even now, before landfall, #Sally has already dumped 400 mm of rain, half a year's worth here in NL, in some places near Mobile, Alabama!
And another update: #Sally strengthened into a cat. 2 hurricane again, with winds of 160 km/h!
Update from @NHC_Atlantic:
Hurricane #Sally has further strenghtened; winds now 105 mph (165 km/h). "Historic and catastrophic flooding is unfolding along and just inland of the coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida, to Mobile Bay, Alabama."
nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M…
One place in the Florida panhandle already reported 630 mm (24.8 inches) of rain from hurricane #Sally, and pouring. @NHC_Atlantic now foresees up to 890 mm (35 inches) in the worst places.
Some of the damage done by hurricane #Sally in Alabama.
.. and river flooding following with some delay.
Looks like hurricane Sally dumped almost a meter of rain near Pensacola, Florida (945 mm, in this estimate)!
And there is tropical Depression Twenty-two, probably Tropical Storm Wilfred pretty soon.
Could head for Texas after that. ImageImage
And there it is! Next up: Alpha.
Finally some use for 3 years of classical Greek in a Dutch 'gymnasium', early 1970s ;)
O wait, there's Alpha already! Next up: Beta.
A somewhat unusual track forecast for subtropical storm Alpha. Yes, that's Portugal and Spain. Image
.@NHC_Atlantic just published the Greek alphabet. Not entirely clear what names will come after that.
And, there is Tropical Storm Beta! That makes 3 new named storms in the Atlantic basin within 24 hours. Next up: Gamma. Image
Tropical Storm Beta strengthening quickly: now already expected to turn into a hurricane today, and to start causing trouble along the Texas Gulf coast tomorrow.
Bit of an instant hurricane.
Update: Beta didn’t make it to hurricane status, but it’s now expected to bring very heavy rainfall to Texas and Louisiana coastal areas: 200-300 mm (8-12 inches), with 500 mm (20 inches) possible in some places. Image

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More from @Sustainable2050

Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Jun 8
Nasty climate tipping point in sight, especially for NW-Europe! "Nothing drastic will happen at the moment we cross it - which might be soon - but after that the collapse of the current will be unstoppable." And could lead to rapid regional cooling, not so far away from us.
This is a simplified map of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), bringing heat from the South Atlantic, via the Caribbean to the European side of the North Atlantic. On cooling there, the water sinks to 2-3 km depth and takes the cold to the South. Image
Without the AMOC, the North of Europe - especially Iceland, Scandinavia, and Britain - would be much colder than it now is. Image
Read 43 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
May 16
Agreement between right-far-right Dutch coalition parties published now. Thread with some points on climate and energy. These are the plans, but execution will of course be key. Wilders and his PVV are in full climate denial, like much of the EU's far right.
1/
- Stick to existing agreements, no higher ambitions than EU policy
- No rules for improving energy efficiency of owner-occupied homes. Obligation (from 2026) to install heat pump on replacing gas-fired heating boiler canceled.
- End of EV subsidies in 2025.
2/
- Study how zero-emission zones in cities kan be delayed to create exceptions for entrepreneurs, but creating such zones remains decision of municipality.
- An end to subsidies for Bio-energy with CCS (for negative emissions) as soon as possible.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Mar 16
Starting a week-long business & pleasure trip to Spain, by train!
Hope to be in Barcelona this evening :)
I'll keep you posted in this🧵 Image
The plan for today: Utrecht - Rotterdam - Paris - Barcelona. The tricky part is changing trains in Paris. Theoretically 2 hours should be more than enough to get from Paris-Nord to Gare de Lyon (the rail planner irresponsibly proposed 1 hour), but @Eurostar is often delayed (2/n) Image
Made it to Rotterdam, at least ;)
Bit very early, but hey, why hurry on a Saturday morning? (3/n)
Image
Image
Read 69 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Jan 28
Reading the Dutch "Action agenda congestion low-voltage grids".
The accelating energy transition already brings grid issues here. In the low-voltage distribution grid, the growing number of solar panels (PV), electric cars (EV) and (hybrid) heat pumps ((h)WP) is the challenge. Image
Without measures, a large and growing number of households would experience periods with too high or too low voltage (over- resp. onderspanning) or risk of grid failure. Image
Measures are categorized in:
1) accelerating grid expansion
2) more efficient use of the grid capacity
3) saving energy as much as possible.

1) already gets a lot of attention, and each of the three main DSOs plans to spend around €1 billion/year. Many hurdles though.
Read 16 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Nov 14, 2023
"Transition doesn't make energy cheaper, but to the contrary, significantly more expensive"
Headline in Dutch @Volkskrant yesterday, 9 days before the elections here. "Consumers and companies will pay 92% more for electricity and natural gas by 2030".
Hmm, let's look into that. Image
Firstly, as others have already pointed out too, it's a comparison between 2020 and 2030. In 2020, energy was cheap: Covid reduced demand, and Russia hadn't started its energy war and attack on Ukraine yet.
Compared with 2023, not a lot would remain of the "+92%". Image
Looking into the forecasted price increase 2020-2030 it has three components:
1. Tax (Belasting) +€5 billion. That'd be a political choice, which has little to do with the energy transition.
2. Grid (Netbeheer) +€5 billion. Increase to be expected indeed.
But ... Image
Read 17 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Oct 7, 2023
Today it's Scotland.
#ClimatechangeisWaterchange
Install bigger pumps. Oh, and reduce emissions to zero, asap.
Seems like the right decision.
(West of Glasgow, Scotland)
Read 4 tweets

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