Tropical Storm Sally just formed near the southern tip of Florida. Looks like it will end up as a hurricane near New Orleans, on Tuesday.
Latest NHC update on Sally: now forecast to hit the New Orleans area as a cat. 2 hurricane with winds of 160 km/h (100 mph). But more rapid intensification over the warm waters of the Gulf is still possible.
Hurricane-to-be #Sally could bring 3 meters of storm surge and 600 mm of rain:
A hyper-active Atlantic Ocean today: hurricane Paulette closing in on Bermuda, tropical storms Sally (approaching the northern Gulf coast) and Teddy, and tropical depressions Rene and Twenty-One.
And... there is Vicky! Only Wilfred to go now, and then this year’s supply of names for Atlantic tropical cyclones is finished. Over to the Greek alphabet then.
In the meantime, #Sally rapidly strengthened into a hurricane. At 10 am CDT, it's winds were 105 km/h (65 mph) @NHC_Atlantic expected it to take 36 hours to achieve winds of 145 km/h (90 mph).
Just 90 minutes(!) later, it had already happened.
This #Sally has rapidly become an impressive hurricane. @NHC_Atlantic now expects it to strengthen to at least 170 km/h wins before landfall, and more than that.
Major flooding from storm surge and massive rainfall in any case. Poor Louisiana.
Sustained winds speeds in hurricane #Sally already up to 160 km/h (100 mph) now. Forecast bumped up to 175 km/h (110 mph).
Coastal areas already affected; exact timing of landfall uncertain.
Heavy storm surge expected around New Orleans, due to hurricane #Sally: 6 foot = 1.8 meters.
Hurricane #Sally update: Winds down (to 140 km/h), rainfall forecast up: 250-500 mm of rain expected, with 750 mm (a year's worth, here in NL) possible in some places.
Update from @NHC_Atlantic:
Hurricane #Sally has further strenghtened; winds now 105 mph (165 km/h). "Historic and catastrophic flooding is unfolding along and just inland of the coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida, to Mobile Bay, Alabama." nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M…
One place in the Florida panhandle already reported 630 mm (24.8 inches) of rain from hurricane #Sally, and pouring. @NHC_Atlantic now foresees up to 890 mm (35 inches) in the worst places.
And, there is Tropical Storm Beta! That makes 3 new named storms in the Atlantic basin within 24 hours. Next up: Gamma.
Tropical Storm Beta strengthening quickly: now already expected to turn into a hurricane today, and to start causing trouble along the Texas Gulf coast tomorrow.
Bit of an instant hurricane.
Update: Beta didn’t make it to hurricane status, but it’s now expected to bring very heavy rainfall to Texas and Louisiana coastal areas: 200-300 mm (8-12 inches), with 500 mm (20 inches) possible in some places.
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Starting a week-long business & pleasure trip to Spain, by train!
Hope to be in Barcelona this evening :)
I'll keep you posted in this🧵
The plan for today: Utrecht - Rotterdam - Paris - Barcelona. The tricky part is changing trains in Paris. Theoretically 2 hours should be more than enough to get from Paris-Nord to Gare de Lyon (the rail planner irresponsibly proposed 1 hour), but @Eurostar is often delayed (2/n)
Made it to Rotterdam, at least ;)
Bit very early, but hey, why hurry on a Saturday morning? (3/n)
Reading the Dutch "Action agenda congestion low-voltage grids".
The accelating energy transition already brings grid issues here. In the low-voltage distribution grid, the growing number of solar panels (PV), electric cars (EV) and (hybrid) heat pumps ((h)WP) is the challenge.
Without measures, a large and growing number of households would experience periods with too high or too low voltage (over- resp. onderspanning) or risk of grid failure.
Measures are categorized in: 1) accelerating grid expansion 2) more efficient use of the grid capacity 3) saving energy as much as possible.
1) already gets a lot of attention, and each of the three main DSOs plans to spend around €1 billion/year. Many hurdles though.
"Transition doesn't make energy cheaper, but to the contrary, significantly more expensive"
Headline in Dutch @Volkskrant yesterday, 9 days before the elections here. "Consumers and companies will pay 92% more for electricity and natural gas by 2030".
Hmm, let's look into that.
Firstly, as others have already pointed out too, it's a comparison between 2020 and 2030. In 2020, energy was cheap: Covid reduced demand, and Russia hadn't started its energy war and attack on Ukraine yet.
Compared with 2023, not a lot would remain of the "+92%".
Looking into the forecasted price increase 2020-2030 it has three components: 1. Tax (Belasting) +€5 billion. That'd be a political choice, which has little to do with the energy transition. 2. Grid (Netbeheer) +€5 billion. Increase to be expected indeed.
But ...
A problem for French nuclear power producer EDF: its total production cost (in the old power plants) is 60 €/MWh, according to the regulator, but govt forces it to sell a big chunk at 42 €/MWh.
60 €/MWh is not a bad cost in the current European electricity market, but it's also a reality check for those here who think nuclear power is practically for free after the investment in the power plant is done.
Tomorrow, @KornelisBlok's 40+ years of wide-ranging, thorough, and groundbreaking work on the energy transition will come together in his "Need for Speed" lecture. Recommended!
Time: 15:00 CEST
Link: lnkd.in/e6hbsKQc #energytransition#tudelft
Time to tune in!
.@KornelisBlok's 1984 analysis of 100% renewable energy for the Netherlands! Including heat pumps and electrolysis.