1/This is STUNNING.

Rather than use "actual cases" to determine "false positive" rates, labs are using comparisons from different laboratories.

No lab knows what a true case is.

But ALL of the FDA EUAs are based upon comparisons with other lab results.

logicinthetimeofcovid.com/2020/09/07/wai… Image
So we are assessing "false positives" based upon other lab results that also cannot identify "false positives."


Because "experimenters" supposedly "cherry-pick" the samples.


"There are 2 ways to find out what false positive rate of a test is.
One is to run test on cases where there is certainty about the diagnosis and figure out how many results are wrong."
"This can give a false impression of the rate of false-positives because the experimenters usually remove all ambiguous or complicated scenarios to enable that certainty, but the ambiguous and complicated cases exist in real life. "


False choice.

So, instead of using actual positives to assess "false positives," what did they do?

"The other method is to use it in the real world and compare testing in different laboratories and over time."

This is the FDA "Gold Standard."

Compare one inaccurate test with another.

This is WRONG.

There is ONLY one way to assess false positives.

Assess tests results with actual Covid-positive cases.

The only problem is that no one knows what qualifies as a TRUE "Covid-positive" case.


We have shut down our lives based upon . . . WHAT?


• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Rebel A. Cole

Rebel A. Cole Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RebelACole

24 Nov
1/ Florida Covid Update: No. 23, 2020

Number of cases has been rising largely in lockstep with number of tests.

Correlation coefficient between two series: > 0.80
2/ Florida Covid Update: No. 23, 2020

Positive percentage (7-day MA) had been rising since Oct. 7 from low of 4.4% to 8.3% on Nov. 18.

Falling since then, today at 7.5%.

July 8 high was 16.1%.

The snowbirds have returned with more than just their buying power.
3/ Florida Covid Update: No. 23, 2020

Hospitalization data continues to show stability.

Occupancy of all beds at 74%, in line with past several months.

Same for occupancy of ICU beds at 76%.
Read 12 tweets
1 Nov
1/ Today's Palm Beach Post newspaper's latest #PanicPorn from its resident "fear-mongerer" Jane Musgrave aka @pbpcourts.

2/ 800,000 have tested positive.

Current positive percentage is more about 5% in FL so that means more than 1 million of 21.5 million population are CURRENTLY INFECTED.

Most are asymptomatic.

Jane misses this "small" fact.
3/ Serology tests indicate that about 20% of Floridians have been infected with Covid-19.

That is not 1 million.

That is 4 million.
Read 12 tweets
30 Oct
1/ Palm Beach County, FL Update:

Today, the @PBPost published yet another #PanicPorn article penned by @pbpcourts Jane Musgrave, trying to paint our situation as grim.
"We're in trouble in Florida," opines one "expert."

"This comes when you open too soon," scolds another.
2/ So what are they worrying about?

A rise in the number of "cases."

Ok, so let's look:

Cases have risen from recent 7-day average low of 115 up to 309.

But much of this is the result of increased testing.
From 3,460 to 6,181.
3/ Much more relevant is the positive percentage.

This metric, on a 7-day average to smooth daily spikes, had averaged less than 5% from Aug. 23 until Oct. 26 when it rose above 5%.

Has been less than 6% each day since.

Worth keeping an eye on it as the snowbirds return.
Read 9 tweets
21 Oct
1/ Florida Covid-19 Situation:


Appear to be rising by "date of lab datadump."

But continue to fall by "date of event," which for most cases is the date of the PCR test.

Labs are dumping old tests to create the illusion of "rising cases"?
2/ Florida Covid-19 Situation:


Covid-occupied hospital beds hit new low on Sunday under 2,000 after mid-July peak of 9,500.

Slight uptick on Mon-Tue as happens each week.

Relative to "event date," hospitalizations continue to decline to new low of under 100.
3/ Florida Covid-19 Situation:


By date of death, continue to decline. Could miss a recent uptick.

Relative to event date, continue to decline in a big way.

Strong evidence that death are really continuing to decline.
Read 8 tweets
18 Oct
1/ Today's Florida Covid-19 Update:

Positive percentage (7-day rolling average) below 5% for fourth straight week.

Slight blip attributable to Nov. 9 lab reporting debacle that inflated daily positive percentage to 7.88%.
2/ Hospitalizations:

Covid-occupied hospital beds fall to new low of 1,996, down from mid-July peaks of 9,500+.

First time below 2,000 since public reporting began.

Less than 5% of ~42,000 total occupied hospital beds.
3/ Deaths:

Deaths by "date of death" continue to decline from early August peak, but state bureaucrats continue to create new "Covid deaths" by matching old death certificates with old Covid cases.
Read 10 tweets
17 Oct
1/ Today's Florida Covid-19 testing data update.

After a disastrous lab "data dump," we are "officially back below 5% positive percentage.
2/ Testing by month and then by day for past 14 days.

Do you see a "spike" from re-openings schools and colleges?


Me neither.

Because there wasn't one.

So much for that #PanicPorn headline.
Hospitalization data.

Covid-occupied beds down from peak of 9,500+ in mid-July to less than 2,100.

No discernable rise in past few weeks.

Maybe this is as low as it goes with bogus PCR testing "false positives."
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!