Barry Ritholtz Profile picture
Sep 12, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Contrarian alert: Color me skeptical that a major business publication is going to call a bubble on its cover in real time.

barrons.com/articles/the-m… Image
And yes, I spot the hedge in the way its phrased: "Its a bubble but it's not ready to pop" covers all bases.

Blow up? We told you it was a bubble!
Rally? We told you it was not ready to pop!

Not really sure what the value of this duality is to investors...
here is why: We ignore the simple reality that the future is inherently unknown, and unknowable.

Once when we start talking about Uncertainty, what we really mean is our confidence in our flawed models is fading. The optimism we usually shown cracks.

ritholtz.com/2012/07/theres…
Uncertainty is a meme that refuses to go quietly.

Why?

Because we would have to admit our own ignorance about what is going to happen in the future, acknowledging how much randomness impacts our lives.

We hate that.

ritholtz.com/2016/05/162202/
The ‘uncertainty’ meme reveals how little we actually know about the next few months, quarters, years. Its a theme I have been exploring for more than a decade

ritholtz.com/2010/11/kiss-a…
Most of the time, we exist in a happy little bubble of self-created delusion. We lie to ourselves constantly. We rationalize everything we do, past and present. We engage in selective perception, seeing only the things that agree with us.

This works for us in most endeavors.
But it is a disaster to imagine you know the future in investing.

For me, the better approach is to think probabilistically, considering possibilities of what could happen.

Its a more humble way to think about what might occur.

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More from @Ritholtz

Aug 27
A few quick thoughts about yesterday's discussion on how we got here...

FOMC seems 2b always behind the curve, historically, going back to the 1990s under Greenspan.

They are a big + boring conservative institution & are fearful of error. They tend to be less aggressive when making decisions, with significant ramifications.

Consider the errors of just the past 2 decades and you can see the biggest mistake they make is either arriving way too late to the party or once they are there, overstaying their welcome: Image
Read 11 tweets
May 19, 2023
FinTV comments I keep hearing:

1. Only 5 stocks driving markets
2. Recession is inevitable
3. Breadth is terrible
4. AI is a bubble
5. Debt ceiling = disaster
6. Problematic new lows
7. Consumers running out of money
8. Earnings will fail THIS Q
9. HH Debt!
10. Rally faltering
Let's see if I can find something to undercut each of those 10 items:
Only 5 stocks driving markets?

Then why are Equal-weighted indices doing so well?
Read 12 tweets
Mar 11, 2023
.@baldassarreted Congrats on picking up Certina as a brand -- they are wildly underappreciated.

My PH200M is a favorite daily wear -- it has a great retro flavor to it, and a wonderful mesh bracelet Image
One of the very best dive watches you can find for under $1,000. It just feels great on . . .

I always smile when a random stranger asks about it, in a way they wouldn't with a Rolex, Omega, or Tag Heuer.
I am a fan of Teddy's Youtube channel -- he avoids the overhyped stuff and has a deep knowledge of brands from Nomos to Glashutte to Junghans.

Check out:

youtube.com/@TeddyBaldassa…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 10, 2023
The Fed is Breaking Things (and it could get worse) dlvr.it/SkhPB7 Image
I interviewed Greg Becker, who was CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, in 2021...

ritholtz.com/2021/08/mib-gr…
The full transcript is here:

ritholtz.com/2021/08/transc…
Read 9 tweets
Jan 11, 2023
What drives market returns? These rolling 10-year total returns going back to 1909 (via Crestmont Research) show an average ~10% annual total return over any 10-year long period.
Ed Easterling (of Crestmont) breaks down those returns into these components: EPS, Dividend Yield, and P/E Increase (or decrease).

Note how cyclical P/E expansion/contraction is...
This is why it is important to include whether P/Es are expanding or contracting in any definition of a bull or bear market.

ritholtz.com/2017/08/redefi…
Read 7 tweets
Jan 3, 2023
Observations to Start 2023 dlvr.it/SgJkSr
It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes + 9.76 seconds to complete 1 orbit – to return to the exact same place relative to the sun. Our planet has done this about 4.54 billion times.

What does this unit of time have to do with investing?

Alas, utterly nothing...
This is an example of the irrelevant nature of the calendar - I'd be curious to see what the data looks like for successive rolling 12-month periods rather than calendar years; it might also be more useful than using January - December periods

statista.com/chart/28401/an…
Read 4 tweets

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