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Aaron Richterman, MD Profile picture
@AaronRichterman
Sep 12, 2020 • 28 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
Political appointees move to silence @CDCMMWR reports, the weekly lifeline from a barely functioning institution and the cornerstone of public health reporting in the US

Selection of reports that have been essential to understanding the US epidemic 👇🏻

politico.com/news/2020/09/1…
March 20 — cruise ship investigation with early hint about crucial importance of indoor dining for transmission

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
March 20 — investigation in Singapore demonstrates that aggressive test, trace, isolate can be effective if community prevalence is low

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
March 27 — nursing home investigation in Washington identifies important vulnerabilities in these facilities and highlights devastating consequences of transmission

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
April 3 — symptom based screening will be insufficient to prevent nursing home outbreaks

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
April 10 — importance of sentinel surveillance in identifying community transmission

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
April 8 — superspreading events at family gatherings

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
May 1 — 2 reports showing homeless shelters as important focus of transmission requiring special attention

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
May 8 — Black patients overrepresented among those hospitalized with covid19

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
May 8 — investigation of meat and poultry plants showing 5000 infections and 20 deaths

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
May 15 — investigation into the now famous Skagit choir superspreading event

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
May 15 — analysis of excess deaths in NYC show 5000+ additional deaths related to covid in addition to the ~19000 known to be covid-related

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
May 15 and 22 — worrisome early impact of the epidemic on childhood vaccinations

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
May 15 — early and large report of massive burden of disease in prisons

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
May 22 — importance of places of worship as sites of superspreading events

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
June 12 — widespread public support for social mitigation strategies

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
June 26 — first study in pregnant women to use an appropriate control group, identifying this population as at risk for severe disease

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
June 26 — decreased use of emergency departments for life threatening illnesses during the pandemic

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
July 17 — 0 infections from 139 exposures to symptomatic hair stylists with covid19. Circumstantial evidence supporting the crucial role of universal masking

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
July 24 — some of the first well-designed randomly sampled serosurveys in the US demonstrate low overall prevalence of infection (but much higher than identified cases)

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
July 31 — high proportion of people experiencing symptoms for at least 2-3 weeks

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
August 7 — superspreading event at Georgia sleepover camp. This can happen with kids if precautions aren’t take.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
August 14 — early report characterizing multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) in the US

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
August 28 — successful strategies preventing transmission in child care programs in Rhode Island. Important case study.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
September 4 — Strategies used for successful summer camps in Maine without major transmission events. Important case study.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
September 11 — importance of various community exposures as risk factors for acquiring infection (restaurants being the big one)

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
September 11 — cluster investigation showing superspreading events starting at child care facilities and making its way into households

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
Cc @EricMeyerowitz

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More from @AaronRichterman

Aaron Richterman, MD Profile picture
May 31, 2023
Over 100 governments in low- and middle-income countries have introduced anti-poverty cash transfer programs over the last 3 decades

In new research, we examined the effects of these initiatives on the ultimate health outcome — mortality

Published today in @Nature /1 Image
We used >80 national surveys in 37 low- and middle-income countries to create longitudinal survival datasets for 4 million adults & 3 million children 2000-2019

About 1/2 the countries started cash transfer programs, & 1/2 the programs were unconditional (no strings attached) /2 Image
We used difference-in-difference models to show these programs led to a 20% reduction in mortality for women, and an 8% reduction in risk of death for children under 5
/3 Image
Read 8 tweets
Aaron Richterman, MD Profile picture
Nov 16, 2021
New pre-print from @EricMeyerowitz and me reviewing loads of new Delta transmission data.

One area we cover — updates on vaccines' effects on transmission in the Delta era 🧵 1/24

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
First, to review, vaccines can provide:
-direct protection (reduction in infx/disease among vaccinated ppl)
-indirect protection (reduction in infection among all community members through ⬇️ transmission)
/2
nature.com/articles/s4157…
Indirect protection can be generated by
1) ⬇️ risk of infection (if person not infected, cannot transmit)
2) ⬇️ infectiousness of vaccinated person w infection

Prior to delta, 1) + 2) = substantial transmission reduction of 75%+. Our pre-delta review:
/3
academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-a…
Read 24 tweets
Aaron Richterman, MD Profile picture
Aug 24, 2021
As @mugecevik points out, despite the recent proliferation of vaccine studies using routinely collected testing data, the majority of these cannot be reliably be used to estimate VE vs all infections because they do not use systematic testing and/or control for confounding.
Vaccine protection against all infections is one important way (of several) that vaccines reduce transmission (discussed👇). Here is an updated table of high-quality studies assessing VE against infection, including just 3 from the delta era at the bottom
academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-a…
When using regular (or cross-sectional) systematic testing to estimate VE, you are really measuring VE against a composite of infection and duration of PCR-positivity, as highlighted recently by @dylanhmorris.
Fascinating discussion of these methods here sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Richterman, MD Profile picture
Aug 11, 2021
This 👇claim arises principally from Israeli data (which is unpublished in any form so will withhold judgment) and from the UK REACT 1 study, rounds 12 & 13. But... is the REACT 1 data likely to be solely explained by delta? 🧵
(study link spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1…)
This is the table in question. You can see VE of a combination of AZ/MRNA vs symptomatic infection was 83% (19-97%) in round 12, but only 59% (23-78%) in round 13. The concern of course is that this drop in VE is due to delta, which had completely taken over by round 13 /2
However, while 100% of the isolates identified in round 13 were delta, 80% in round 12 were also delta (20% were alpha). Any effect of delta on VE should have been partially seen in round 12. /3
Read 7 tweets
Aaron Richterman, MD Profile picture
Jul 31, 2021
The question at hand: what is the relative transmission potential of a vaccinated person who becomes infected with delta? This 👇new report from Singapore is much more informative on this question than the CT data released so far from Ptown and Wisconsin.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
First, importantly, reducing transmission potential of a person who becomes infected is only one component on the transmission reduction effect of the vaccines. The other: reducing the likelihood of becoming infected in the first place. We discuss here👇
academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-a…
We still await definitive evidence from systematic sampling on the ? of overall infection risk reduction with vaccination, but w strong protection vs symptomatic disease, expect that there will still be substantial protection (50+%) vs overall infection
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 10 tweets
Aaron Richterman, MD Profile picture
Jan 12, 2021
Interesting poll. Selection/response bias aside, majority picked a low probability, but 40% still thought there was 10+% prob that vaccines will not substantially prevent transmission. This is why I have become convinced this concern is highly unlikely (borderline implausible) 🧵
1. Data from screening PCR at the time of the 2nd moderna mrna vaccine, showing reductions in asymptomatic PCR positivity. This is before the 2nd dose and if anything will underestimate effect. Will have additional confirmation from unblinding pcr and ab

2. Data from AZ vaccine chadox study is a mess, but they did weekly PCR screening and points in the same direction.
thelancet.com/action/showPdf… Image
Read 27 tweets

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