In no way does this mean the end of #AWE. Makani was just one concept of one company. There are many other players and approaches. I've always been partial to solutions with a generator on the ground. So not Makani but e.g. @AmpyxPower or @_Kitepower. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
For me the whole concept of putting up a tower to reach high altitude wind seems heavy handed and wasteful in terms of needed resources compared to letting up a kite on a string (here a graph of average wind power vs altitude from my Dutch book from 2010)zenmo.com/wp-content/upl…
Progress SEEMS slow but AWE started for real ~2005.
Commercial PV has a ~70 yr head start.
Wind started B.C. and turbines went from ~50 kW in 1985 to 15 MW in 2021. So a >~20 years head start.
So yes, AWE could use an @elonmusk type, but it only SEEMS to be going slow.
I've always believed the solutions of @_Kitepower and @AmpyxPower (who put the generator on the ground) where the way to go. So Makani giving up does not diminish my enthusiasm for them at all and I look forward to exploring their options within NEONresearch.nl
And there's a silver lining: Makani was partly killed by the immense success of regular wind energy.
Wind (esp. offshore!) has become cheaper so fast (thanks to the efforts of people like @Sustainable2050 and @Vision23) that it was increasingly hard to compete against.
I'm not saying I'm sure #AWE will take over wind turbines. And commercialisation could easily take 5-10 more years.
But I'm sure they could deliver us large scale wind energy with the fraction of the resources that are needed for regular wind. And that potential is nice!
/end
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The heathen Gods have gathered on mount Olympus for a feast. Sun god Apollo is recognizable by his halo, Bacchus (Dionysus) by the grapes, Neptune (Poseidon) by his trident, Diana (Artemis) by the moon, Venus (Aphrodite) by Cupid.
If you add batteries to solar PV, not all energy has to flow through batteries. But let's keep it at $0.01 and add that to the price of solar. That makes PV (and wind) SUPER cheap!
Batteries must be discounted more quickly you say?
Cheap stationary batteries will pave the way for wind and solar in cheap and resilient energy grids. Unfortunately the @IEA is mispredicting it (again).
Many of my followers know this picture: it visualizes how the IEA underestimates solar. Now I see basically the same problem in their new battery report.
The IEAs new battery report gives a lot of great info on batteries but also two predictions taken from their authoritative world energy outlook: 1) STEPS which is basically business as usual 2) NZE (Net Zero Emissions) which is aspirational iea.org/reports/batter…
I used the Sunday afternoot to describe how I think that dirt cheap batteries will completely transform our electricity grid, paving the way for solar and wind and replacing grid reinforcements with grid buffers aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-ho…
This is something I'm working on for different government and grid operator projects, but I never realized just how cheap sodium batteries could become and how much of a game changer that will be.
So I used my Sunday evening to write this and would love your feedback!
First I look at the learning curve and then we see it is extremely predictable: every doubling of production has reduced prices by around 25%.
It's even steeper and more predictable than solar panels, the poster child of this type of learning curve.
(More details on substack.)
Aaaand we have another winner of the "EVs and renewables can never happen because of material scarcety" sweepstake. I thought @pwrhungry was more serious. Let me explain why this is misleading bollox.
First of all, notice how his argument is mainly that Vaclav Smil says this and HE is an authority.
Why bother to write a substack that basically parrots someone else?
Because you don't really understand it yourself and needed to write another substack maybe?
I'm a bit tired of this because Bryce abuses Smil the same way most people who are against renewables abuse him. They emphasize this is a serious and revered figure that knows numbers. They make it about the messenger, not the argument.