AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Sep 12, 2020 7 tweets 5 min read Read on X
I'm on record as being a fan of in airborne wind energy (#AWE).

It can reach more powerful wind at higher altitudes.
And there's less:
materials (5-10x less)
visual impact
sound

So I'm sorry to see Makani had to quit, BUT...
In no way does this mean the end of #AWE. Makani was just one concept of one company. There are many other players and approaches. I've always been partial to solutions with a generator on the ground. So not Makani but e.g. @AmpyxPower or @_Kitepower.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… ImageImageImage
For me the whole concept of putting up a tower to reach high altitude wind seems heavy handed and wasteful in terms of needed resources compared to letting up a kite on a string (here a graph of average wind power vs altitude from my Dutch book from 2010)zenmo.com/wp-content/upl… Image
Progress SEEMS slow but AWE started for real ~2005.

Commercial PV has a ~70 yr head start.
Wind started B.C. and turbines went from ~50 kW in 1985 to 15 MW in 2021. So a >~20 years head start.

So yes, AWE could use an @elonmusk type, but it only SEEMS to be going slow. Image
I've always believed the solutions of @_Kitepower and @AmpyxPower (who put the generator on the ground) where the way to go. So Makani giving up does not diminish my enthusiasm for them at all and I look forward to exploring their options within NEONresearch.nl
And there's a silver lining: Makani was partly killed by the immense success of regular wind energy.

Wind (esp. offshore!) has become cheaper so fast (thanks to the efforts of people like @Sustainable2050 and @Vision23) that it was increasingly hard to compete against.
I'm not saying I'm sure #AWE will take over wind turbines. And commercialisation could easily take 5-10 more years.

But I'm sure they could deliver us large scale wind energy with the fraction of the resources that are needed for regular wind. And that potential is nice!
/end

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More from @AukeHoekstra

Aug 13
Great to see more and more attention for flexible grid pricing.

We must say goodbye to the "copper plate" that offers free power everywhere and every time. It's hideously expensive and outdated.

What we need is smart flexibility.
🧵
The underlying reason is that the costs of different components of the energy system changed:

Some remained high (e.g. pylons, fossil & nuclear)

Some plummeted (e.g. solar, wind, batteries, EVs & inverters)

Some became possible at all (e.g. measuring & steering in real time)
So now we should make good use of these new, clean, abundant and affordable options, even if it means doing things a bit differently than before.

So what should we do different regarding grid congestion pricing?
Read 20 tweets
Jul 28
Some are angry about the "anti-Christian depiction of the last supper" at the Olympic Opening ceremony. (@elonmusk and @realDonaldTrump among others)

A Dutch art historian explains it's not the last supper but a Dutch painting of the Olympic gods.
And I explain what I loved.
🧵
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Original Dutch thread here. I just translated it.


@WSchoonenberg shows that the "tableau vivant" (living painting) is depicting "The Feast of the Gods" by Jan van Bijlert, from 1635.
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The heathen Gods have gathered on mount Olympus for a feast. Sun god Apollo is recognizable by his halo, Bacchus (Dionysus) by the grapes, Neptune (Poseidon) by his trident, Diana (Artemis) by the moon, Venus (Aphrodite) by Cupid.


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Read 24 tweets
Jul 9
With new batteries solar and wind are not only faster and cleaner, but also cheaper.

I'm estimating:
$0.08/kWh for PV+batteries
$0.07/kWh for wind+batteries

@skorusARK gives a good overview of current wisdom, but strongly declining battery prices change EVERYTHING
Image
I've recently written about how I was surprised I missed the enormous consequences of price reductions in batteries.

LFP cells are now $50/kWh and last 10 000 cycles.
That's $0.005 per kWh.

Say we double that to pack the cells and you are at $0.01/kWh.aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-ho…
If you add batteries to solar PV, not all energy has to flow through batteries. But let's keep it at $0.01 and add that to the price of solar. That makes PV (and wind) SUPER cheap!

Batteries must be discounted more quickly you say?
Read 10 tweets
Jun 20
Cheap stationary batteries will pave the way for wind and solar in cheap and resilient energy grids. Unfortunately the @IEA is mispredicting it (again).

Thread based on a free substack article I just wrote.
aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-li…
Image
Many of my followers know this picture: it visualizes how the IEA underestimates solar. Now I see basically the same problem in their new battery report.

Image
The IEAs new battery report gives a lot of great info on batteries but also two predictions taken from their authoritative world energy outlook:
1) STEPS which is basically business as usual
2) NZE (Net Zero Emissions) which is aspirational
iea.org/reports/batter…
Read 11 tweets
Jun 16
Batteries: how cheap can they get?

I used the Sunday afternoot to describe how I think that dirt cheap batteries will completely transform our electricity grid, paving the way for solar and wind and replacing grid reinforcements with grid buffers
aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-ho…
This is something I'm working on for different government and grid operator projects, but I never realized just how cheap sodium batteries could become and how much of a game changer that will be.

So I used my Sunday evening to write this and would love your feedback!
First I look at the learning curve and then we see it is extremely predictable: every doubling of production has reduced prices by around 25%.

It's even steeper and more predictable than solar panels, the poster child of this type of learning curve.
(More details on substack.) Image
Read 15 tweets
Jun 5
Aaaand we have another winner of the "EVs and renewables can never happen because of material scarcety" sweepstake. I thought @pwrhungry was more serious. Let me explain why this is misleading bollox.
First of all, notice how his argument is mainly that Vaclav Smil says this and HE is an authority.

Why bother to write a substack that basically parrots someone else?

Because you don't really understand it yourself and needed to write another substack maybe?
I'm a bit tired of this because Bryce abuses Smil the same way most people who are against renewables abuse him. They emphasize this is a serious and revered figure that knows numbers. They make it about the messenger, not the argument.
Read 14 tweets

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