Robert Fruchtman Profile picture
Sep 12, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The SF Bay Area's housing goals for 2022–2030 are based on population projections by the CA Department of Finance. ABAG/MTC also modeled how changes in housing prices would impact population. It's all in one chart. Image
Lets' talk DOF county-level projections. Folks, they are Wild™.

Alameda and Contra Costa Counties are expected to grow by >350K and >500K apiece. Meanwhile, San Francisco is projected to gain less than 100K people. Marin: only 20 thousand people.
In the last 50 years, SF has added over 370 thousand jobs but only 60 thousand homes. If we change nothing, the state does not expect our housing deficit to change.

That means more supercommuters from our far-flung counties, instead of Marin close by.
The other lines on the graph show projections made by ABAG/MTC using analysis tools from Regional Economic Models, Inc (REMI).

RC5: baseline
R5H0C, R5H1C, and R5H2C: more homes Image
ABAG also commented on each country. Here's what they say about Marin:

"Marin remains a county with many areas off limits to growth for a mix of topographical, conservation and political reasons, though a sizeable share of its workforce commutes to San Francisco." Image
San Francisco does not have zoned capacity to even meet its historical jobs-housing deficit—to say nothing of future growth. That's nothing short of irresponsible. Image

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More from @_fruchtose

Feb 24
Hello San Francisco. I'm attending a community meeting for 633 Arguello, a housing project being proposed using the newly minted Constraints Reduction Act. The meeting is also being held at 633 Arguello. Toby Morris, the architect, is presenting in a hybrid format. Image
The project sponsor is an owner-builder-developer who wants to demolish a duplex to build a fourplex. Morris says the mayor is trying to expedite housing in some areas. Mayor wants to encourage development to remove Planning Commission hearings for "this very kind of project" Image
Further, the project takes advantage of Supervisor Mandelman's fourplex bill in an RM-2 zoning district. The project will be a side lot line to side lot line 40 ft building w/ flats.
Read 23 tweets
Dec 14, 2023
Hello San Francisco. I'm attending a meeting of the SF Board of Appeals. I am here for an absolutely wild case in which it looks like the City is quite definitely violating the Housing Accountability Act: 1228 Funston St. Image
A very brief summary: The case involves a permit to legalize an unauthorized unit, add an ADU + horizontal addition, and change the façade. SF Planning initiated a Discretionary Review of this permit application. The Planning Commission then imposed conditions on the permit... Image
...but it gets a lot more complicated than that. RoDBIGO Santos is involved. This case has stretched on for years. Multiple permits have been filed. Multiple discretionary reviews (DR) are involved.
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Read 143 tweets
Nov 29, 2023
I have found HCD's corrective action letter to San Francisco. Some quick thoughts. Image
The first page of the letter says SF has failed to implement required actions 1.2, 1.4, and 1.10 from Housing Policy and Practice Review. SF has also failed to implement housing element action 8.4.5 by July 31. Relevant text attached here.


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On action 8.4.5, HCD seems to be taking the date in the action at face value. I had interpreted the deadline to be January 31, 2024, due to a drafting error. But the housing element adopted by SF includes a separate timeline column not included in the modified general plan text. Image
Read 22 tweets
Jul 27, 2023
Hello San Francisco. I'm attending a Board of Appeals hearing for an appeal of the Planning Department's proposed amendment to the Planning Code that would stop the 2700 Sloat housing project—a.k.a. the Sunset Tower. Image
Teague says this project started as a HOME-SF project [local density bonus program] originally, and it's not anymore.

Teague confirms that the issue is related to the interpretation of Planning Code sections 102 and 270.
Commissioner Trasviña wants to confirm that the public will have more opportunities to appeal a relevant project in the future.

President Swig says there could be "any number of forks in the road" for the direction of this project and paths to appeal it.
Read 97 tweets
May 25, 2023
Hello San Francisco, I'm at the Park Branch Library attending a pre-application meeting for a housing project at…hold, what's this address? 1846 Grove St? Is that…? Image
Yes, it's the same project that was cut in half from four units to two by Supervisor Preston at a Board of Supervisors appeal hearing!

Troy, the architect, is introducing the project. He and his partners bought the lot in 2017. In 2018 they proposed five homes, but after meeting with neighbors they made it four.
Read 39 tweets
Nov 15, 2022
Good afternoon, San Francisco. I am attending a hearing at the Board of Supervisors on the 2022 housing element update. Supervisor Mar says, "I expect this to be a long hearing." He called for the hearing along with Supervisor Melgar and Supervisor Stefani.
Mar says it's critical that we pass a compliant housing element to keep millionds of $$$ in affordable housing and local control. "The gauntlet the state has thrown our way is immense, but I'm confident we'll rise to the ocassion."
Mar says that the failures of Prop D and Prop E mean that "we cannot get this consensus by fighting each other."
Read 173 tweets

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