The majority of likely Biden voters aren't actually voting for Biden...
They also see Joe spending most of his time on this topic
But he should work more on his own likability... 60% of voters could care less
They also see Trump doing the same... a giant mud slinging contest

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More from @HayekAndKeynes

26 Jun
Retail sales bounced back like a rubber band because of stimulus (Trump checks, PPP, UE bonus). It’s all over in a few weeks & with the new uptick we likely see at least 6 more weeks of contraction with no plug. The real hit starts now
Moreover the recovery in retail aggregate masks over the huge dispersion between online/offline as well as high vs low touch sectors. Many never saw a bounce and online has permanently sucked up market share, further crippling businesses
Lastly, while retail sales saw a nice rebound, industrial production landed with a thud and has yet to show signs of life. Housing may help a little but the lagged impact of lower incomes and continued UE will likely cut into any rebound (& lower rates) in the coming months
Read 4 tweets
22 Jun
It appears the people who need to take precautions are doing so...
If this trend holds for the next two weeks I think it makes a very strong argument for business as usual for those at low risk...
Here are hospitalizations in Florida... cautiously optimistic. Need another week or two but this is great news if it holds
Read 6 tweets
16 Apr
Helicopter money for the rich

1 million people people just got $250k from the government via the SBA PPP loan program
We were swindled. Biggest giveaway in the history of mankind... to those who need it the least
Let’s see if they are as strict with business loan forgiveness as they were with student loan forgiveness for teachers and others who put in a decade of their lives to find out it was a cruel joke
Read 6 tweets
6 Mar
A few things to note

1) Korea’s fatality rate is much lower than China (though we need to wait for the disease to advance)

2) US death rate is overstated due to nursing home

3) Cases came in two waves. First China and then Italy/etc. First was screened. Second was a surprise
3) upshot is that we may not have as much of an outbreak as some suggest (if they are new)

4) contagion seems much better in warm climates (and within China) so perhaps spring will help

5) actual disease outcomes matter less now that people are paranoid. Economic hit is coming
6) actual health outcomes should be much better now that people are paranoid

7) if you have local cases, do wear some sort of mask. It will stop you from touching your mouth.
Read 4 tweets
29 Feb
For everyone worried about coronavirus, I suggest you take a look at Thailand. They had almost 3 million tourists over the Chinese New Year. Cases initially spiked and then tapered off. Either containment or temperature worked to contain the virus. Total confirmed cases: 41
SARS was similar. Hopefully this is too.…
Recently, infection rates have been higher with higher latitudes/altitudes suggesting a possible link with temperature.... (with a few notable exceptions with higher population density & inbound tourism like Hong Kong) @maiamajumder
Read 6 tweets
26 Feb
Most sell offs have little to do with news. Bernie’s rise & the virus were both known beforehand & became bigger risks over the weekend. This was worth a percent or two. Outsized sell offs however are almost always due to systematic players interacting (CTAs, delta hedging, etc)
And just so you know I’m not talking out of my ass, I wrote about this a month ago.…
The left tail risks have been here, staring us in the face
Read 7 tweets

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