If you play fantasy football but don't bet on player props, you're missing out.

Think of all the player-specific research that you do. You look at individual matchups. You break down home/away & favorite/underdog splits. You obsess about the weather.

You live fantasy. (1/25)
Player props are basically a simpler version of fantasy sports -- but instead of building a team and starting a lineup you're picking one player.

And instead of competing against a league mate, you're competing against a sportsbook. (2/25)
A quick word on these sportsbooks: They absolutely suck at creating props for players.

They're especially bad early in the season, when so much is unknown about how guys in new situations -- especially rookies -- are going to be used. (3/25)
But people who follow training camp reports -- people who spend months thinking about how players will perform -- they can be pretty good early in the season at predicting player production.

At least good enough to win at player props.

Sound like anyone you know? (4/25)
That's right: I'm talking about YOU -- a full-on fantasy football degenerate.

The first thing you do when you wake up in the morning is listen to a fantasy football podcast.

You're disgusting.

You're also uniquely equipped to beat the sportsbooks at player props. (5/25)
You can beat the books at props, because you care more about individual players than they do.

Yes, the books have professionals who are smart -- but are they obsessing about how well DeSean Jackson will do in Week 1 and about what Jalen Reagor's return means for D-Jax? (6/25)
Who is likely to know more about individual players?

You, obsessed with fantasy and fixated on the news for all the skill position players in the NFL?

Or an oddsmaker, focused on hundreds of teams in dozens of sports leagues all across the world?

You. Easily you. (7/25)
You can beat the books at props, just like you can beat your league mates at fantasy.

Again, player props basically are fantasy, but simpler.

Instead of trying to find a trade partner and putting a deal together, you simply "buy and sell" players in the prop market. (8/25)
If you think a guy is going to have a big game, you can invest in him by betting the over on his player props.

If you like a guy for fantasy but don't have him on your team and can't swing a trade for him, don't worry: Just bet his player prop. (9/25)
Similarly, if you think a guy will have a bad game, you can sell him short by betting the under on his props.

There are lots of ways for fantasy players to approach props.

I wrote about them a couple of years ago in this article. (10/25)

actionnetwork.com/nfl/how-to-bet…
I openly admit that I'm not a great bettor. With NFL sides and totals, I break even -- and I'm thrilled to do that.

If I bet on another sport -- MLB, NHL, NBA, WNBA, whatever -- I suck. I have no idea what I'm doing.

But I have crushed player props. (11/25)
NFL player props, NBA player props, NHL player props, March Madness player props: I've bet them all, and I've won.

If you check my record in the @ActionApp or look at my @ActionNetworkHQ writer archive, you'll see. (12/25)

actionnetwork.com/article/author…
As I'm sure you're aware, I'm not some numbers savant. I'm just a dude who sometimes isn't 100% sure about how to spell the word "savant."

I'm just a guy with a spreadsheet -- and an obsession with fantasy sports and player production.

That's it. (13/25)
If I can win, you can win. And guess what?

Thinking about player production, creating some rough projections, looking at props in the market, betting the best lines, beating the books, and winning a little cash ...

It's fun.

I love it. (14/25)
I got into fantasy football years ago because I loved football, I loved games, and I loved competing against my friends.

Now, I don't care about my fantasy teams nearly as much -- because I care so much more about my portfolio of props each week. (15/25)
Sure, it's still fun to beat your league mates -- but let's be honest: You're better than them.

They no longer challenge you the way you want to be challenged.

You need a new game.

And that game is player props. (16/25)
If you haven't gotten into player props yet, you absolutely should.

And you can find them at almost every sportsbook for a variety of sports.

If you don't have a sportsbook, you can research them here and get some great sign-up offers. (17/25)

actionnetwork.com/online-sports-…
For player props, I have a few guidelines.

1. Unders tend to be sharp, primarily because people want to bet on something to happen.

They want to see yards & touchdowns. They want excitement -- and they bet accordingly.

That means books can shade lines toward the over. (18/25)
2. Overs are more bettable early in the season & for players in new situations, namely rookies.

Often, sportsbooks are conservative in projecting rookies who will be full-time players. They don't project what they haven't seen.

And that creates an early opportunity. (19/25)
3. I streamline the process where possible, because I want this to feel like fun, not a job.

That means I use tools that make my life easier, and I pay attention to what smarter and more knowledgeable people are doing. (20/25)
One tool I use is the @FantasyLabs Player Prop Tool.

It sorts through sportsbooks to find props in the market, and it uses our projections to show the most valuable props.

Since 2018, the tool is 507-332-19 on props with the highest bet quality. (21/25)

fantasylabs.com/the-player-pro…
I also use the @ActionApp, where I can track my bets & see props bet by other people.

I specifically pay attention to props in the app by @bryan_mears, @ChrisRaybon & @The_Oddsmaker for NFL and also NBA. (22/25)

actionnetwork.com/app?utm_source…
Obviously, @The_Oddsmaker is sharp: His projections power the @FantasyLabs Models & Prop Tool.

And it's his fantasy projections in the Models that I care about most ...

... because DraftKings & FanDuel Sportsbooks offer FANTASY POINT PROPS! (23/25)

fantasylabs.com/tools/player-m…
These DK & FD points props are even more exploitable than typical player props.

If books struggle to set good lines for normal player stats, imagine how much harder it is for them with fantasy points.

It's unfair. It's like playing in a fantasy league with morons. (24/?)
My advice as a man of the people: Subscribe to @FantasyLabs.

Use our Prop Tool for regular player props & the projections in our Models for fantasy props.

Right now, you can subscribe for our lowest price ever.

The deal ends Monday.

Good luck. (25/25)

fantasylabs.com/pricing/?utm_s…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Matthew Freedman

Matthew Freedman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @MattFtheOracle

4 Sep
Here is my general approach to 2020 redraft leagues.

I want a top-seven RB:
Christian McCaffrey
Saquon Barkley
Ezekiel Elliott
Alvin Kamara
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Derrick Henry
Dalvin Cook

Rank those last three however you want. But I want them before Michael Thomas. (1/22)
I view Michael Thomas as the top player in a WR tier with Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Julio Jones -- and I generally don't want to take the top player in a tier.

Also, WR is deeper than RB, so I'd rather take a top-seven RB over Thomas: I can find WRs I like later. (2/22)
Near the 1/2 turn (assuming a top-seven RB is not available), I'm probably going WR/WR or WR/TE.

If I take a RB, it's probably Austin Ekeler. Yes, I know that he no longer has QB Philip Rivers in LA to dump passes off to him.

I don't think that matters. (3/22)
Read 23 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!