If you play fantasy football but don't bet on player props, you're missing out.
Think of all the player-specific research that you do. You look at individual matchups. You break down home/away & favorite/underdog splits. You obsess about the weather.
You live fantasy. (1/25)
Player props are basically a simpler version of fantasy sports -- but instead of building a team and starting a lineup you're picking one player.
And instead of competing against a league mate, you're competing against a sportsbook. (2/25)
A quick word on these sportsbooks: They absolutely suck at creating props for players.
They're especially bad early in the season, when so much is unknown about how guys in new situations -- especially rookies -- are going to be used. (3/25)
But people who follow training camp reports -- people who spend months thinking about how players will perform -- they can be pretty good early in the season at predicting player production.
At least good enough to win at player props.
Sound like anyone you know? (4/25)
That's right: I'm talking about YOU -- a full-on fantasy football degenerate.
The first thing you do when you wake up in the morning is listen to a fantasy football podcast.
You're disgusting.
You're also uniquely equipped to beat the sportsbooks at player props. (5/25)
You can beat the books at props, because you care more about individual players than they do.
Yes, the books have professionals who are smart -- but are they obsessing about how well DeSean Jackson will do in Week 1 and about what Jalen Reagor's return means for D-Jax? (6/25)
Who is likely to know more about individual players?
You, obsessed with fantasy and fixated on the news for all the skill position players in the NFL?
Or an oddsmaker, focused on hundreds of teams in dozens of sports leagues all across the world?
You. Easily you. (7/25)
You can beat the books at props, just like you can beat your league mates at fantasy.
Again, player props basically are fantasy, but simpler.
Instead of trying to find a trade partner and putting a deal together, you simply "buy and sell" players in the prop market. (8/25)
If you think a guy is going to have a big game, you can invest in him by betting the over on his player props.
If you like a guy for fantasy but don't have him on your team and can't swing a trade for him, don't worry: Just bet his player prop. (9/25)
Similarly, if you think a guy will have a bad game, you can sell him short by betting the under on his props.
There are lots of ways for fantasy players to approach props.
I wrote about them a couple of years ago in this article. (10/25)
As I'm sure you're aware, I'm not some numbers savant. I'm just a dude who sometimes isn't 100% sure about how to spell the word "savant."
I'm just a guy with a spreadsheet -- and an obsession with fantasy sports and player production.
That's it. (13/25)
If I can win, you can win. And guess what?
Thinking about player production, creating some rough projections, looking at props in the market, betting the best lines, beating the books, and winning a little cash ...
It's fun.
I love it. (14/25)
I got into fantasy football years ago because I loved football, I loved games, and I loved competing against my friends.
Now, I don't care about my fantasy teams nearly as much -- because I care so much more about my portfolio of props each week. (15/25)
Sure, it's still fun to beat your league mates -- but let's be honest: You're better than them.
They no longer challenge you the way you want to be challenged.
You need a new game.
And that game is player props. (16/25)
If you haven't gotten into player props yet, you absolutely should.
And you can find them at almost every sportsbook for a variety of sports.
If you don't have a sportsbook, you can research them here and get some great sign-up offers. (17/25)
If I have a top-five pick, I'm going with RB:
- 1.01: Christian McCaffrey
- 1.02: Dalvin Cook
- 1.03: Alvin Kamara
- 1.04: Derrick Henry
- 1.05: Aaron Jones
After them, I don't want a back until near the end of Round 1.
2/ In the middle of Round 1, I want difference-making pass catchers:
3/ I'm going with Kelce & WRs in the middle of Round 1 because I think that spot is too early for Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Nick Chubb.
If those RBs fall to the end of Round 1, I'll consider them, but I'm not prioritizing them.
Here is my general approach to 2020 redraft leagues.
I want a top-seven RB:
Christian McCaffrey
Saquon Barkley
Ezekiel Elliott
Alvin Kamara
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Derrick Henry
Dalvin Cook
Rank those last three however you want. But I want them before Michael Thomas. (1/22)
I view Michael Thomas as the top player in a WR tier with Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Julio Jones -- and I generally don't want to take the top player in a tier.
Also, WR is deeper than RB, so I'd rather take a top-seven RB over Thomas: I can find WRs I like later. (2/22)
Near the 1/2 turn (assuming a top-seven RB is not available), I'm probably going WR/WR or WR/TE.
If I take a RB, it's probably Austin Ekeler. Yes, I know that he no longer has QB Philip Rivers in LA to dump passes off to him.