This thread is the nightmare scenario playing out. The virus is back with a veangance and the testing system has already collapsed. R is at ~1.7, viral incidence doubles every 8 days and there's no hope of contact tracing containing it without expedient testing. We may be fucked!
I don't want to be alarmist, but if the virus continues growing exponentially, doubling every 8 days, we we'd easily have 300,000+ active infections by the end of the month

Assuming crude IFR of 0.9%, we can expect 2,700 of those people to die. And then if it doubles again... 😬
Exponential growth is one hell of a phenomenon, and if we don't do something to slow it down rapidly then what's coming down the road is very ugly...and not even the most selfish, self-absorbed and intellectually challenged cranks wants this 👇

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More from @PsyberAttack

15 Sep
I'd like to present to you the most impressively dishonest chart I've seen in a while. It has some interesting 'quirks'. I'm too lazy to go over the points so I'll just RT tweets related to it
OK, so Ill do this the long way because they're late night tweets

Let's start with the unused real estate. It's impressive because it significantly masks the new uptick

Also these grid lines are weird. It's a linear graph but those vertical lines are intended to draw the eye 👇
Dishonest presentation of the information. Context is everything, so even when you're dishonesty palming off nonsense you should be sure to familiarise yourself with the details of your deception...and don't use Low-Res images, unless you're deceiving
Read 4 tweets
11 Aug
Something doesn't add up here. See if you can spot it...

People in hospital: 267
Cases (last 30 days): 687
Population: 5,463,300

People in hospital: 647
Cases (last 30 days): 20,117
Population: 56,286,961

Data sources: Scot/England Dashboards, (August 10th)
For those wondering, my *suspicion* is that this explains it. I don't have evidence...but I'll try to expand on what I'm seeing in the data and hearing anecodtally 👇
I'm hearing a lot of people in England are getting the "manage at home" message, with people being 'cared for' by a shadow health service, which sends them blood/oxygen monitors and acts as their point of contact

The Excess Deaths for England and Wales also tell a story...
Read 9 tweets
30 Jun
A thread of COVID deaths by MP/Constituency:

All the data comes from ONS. It covers COVID deaths in England and Wales from March to May, covering 49,491 deaths in 532 constituencies.

Included is Constituency, Party, MP, number of deaths and contact details from @TheyWorkForYou
The average COVID deaths per constituency is 86.5 residents, with the worst affected constituency losing 230 residents and the least affected losing 7 residents.

Links to the full dataset and methodology will be at the end of this thread.

Deaths are NOT a reflection on the MP!
Deaths are below average in Conservative, Green and Plaid Cymru constituencies.

Deaths are above average in Labour and Lib Dem constituencies.

Plaid Cymru MPs are in areas of Wales with low incidence of the virus, while the Green constituency is an area of mostly younger people
Read 8 tweets
26 Jun
@rowlsmanthorpe Thanks. It'll take a few tweets to explain, so I'll thread them

The data comes from 'NHS Pathways', which they update each morning:…

It's then enriched with 'CCG' population data from ONS to calulate the 'Rate', (new 'triages' per 100K population).

@rowlsmanthorpe 2/n

The raw data includes 'triages' for age/gender etc, so I sum them to get a daily 'TriageCount' for each CCG, then calculate the 'Rate' from that to measure the comparable impact on each area

A copy of today's output is available as a Google doc here:…
@rowlsmanthorpe 3/n

It's important to note that it's *only* the 111 Calls. The reason for this is the online portal generates duplicates/inaccuracies, and the 999 Calls only cover half the country.

These are all explained in the Caveats section of the dataset's notes:…
Read 6 tweets

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