Based on current cases, rate of infection, average length of time to death and case fatality rate by age group, we will see 10-15 deaths in the coming week and 40-50 deaths in the next 21 days.

If this level of infection carries on into the winter, we are goosed.
There has been 179 cases in the first 12 days of September in the over 65 age groups.

For the entirety of the summer (June, July, August) there was 297 cases in the over 65's.

We are fast approaching the entire summer amount of cases within the first 3 weeks in September.
The Case Fatality Rate in those age groups has improved slightly globally, and in Ireland, partly thanks to improved and refined treatment with cheap steroids like Dexamethasone.

But it is not a drastic reduction and you're still looking at substantial fatality rates.
It is eminently possible if the current rate of infection continues, or even shifts marginally in terms of demographics towards older people, we could see between 130-200 dead in October, worse again 250-350 in November.

None of us want many people dying every day.
These are not clairvoyant predictions, this is looking at the picture in Spain, France and Ireland and making simple calculations into the near-future.

The disease has not changed, it will still kill a lot of older people and it is already too late for some of them.
And that's just older people.

Younger people (45 years and below) are not bulletproof.

2 of the recent ICU admissions this week were under 35-years-old. Godspeed to them.

Widespread infection will eventually reach someone young who can't overcome it.
Now, there is something we can all do about this.

This remains a virus spread by close contact, and the control over the trajectory of the epidemic is literally and metaphorically still in our own hands.

What we are doing as a society currently is not where we need to be.
I've been relatively mute on the topic of pubs but they need their heads examined opening up more venues involving alcohol, when much of Western Europe is moving the other direction to reduce congregation near alcohol.
I can't affect it, but I can control is doing the basics for me. Make sure I'm doing my best.

If we all do that, it will slowly bring down cases to levels that won't translate to much death.

We have to bring our A-game to hygiene on an individual level and get cases down.
I write threads showcasing how well Irish society is doing, because positive reinforcement works better than fear.

I'm not writing this to alarm anyone. I'm looking at the numbers and we are sleepwalking into a tough winter.

I'm writing it because I believe we can change that.

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More from @Care2much18

20 Sep
Ireland's epidemic has been shadowing the trajectory of most European countries, most closely Denmark, but also countries like Spain and Greece.

It's Greece I'm going to focus on, due to a few similarities, to try offer encouragement that recent measures in Dublin can help.
2 months ago on July 20th, this was the picture:

14-day incidence per 100,000:

Spain: 18.0
Ireland: 4.8
Greece: 4.6

Hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths were low and stable in all 3 countries.
Over the next month, the virus gained traction as people gradually began to embrace the new normal.

By August 20th, all 3 countries were in identical proportions to July, except with ~6 times more infection:

14-day incidence per 100,000:

Spain: 138.7
Ireland: 25.4
Greece: 25.3
Read 20 tweets
18 Sep
A lot of talk about restaurants.

I'm not sure people are aware of how bad things are looking for Dublin, and Ireland more generally, and restaurants seem like an arbitrary thing to target.

Here's a thread on all of it.
In the US, restaurant data is a very accurate predictor of trends.

It's not that everything hinges on restaurants, or even what staff do to make them safer, it's that people interact more when they make additional choices to socialise indoors (pub, restaurant, cafe, gym).
You see here in April, hardly anybody was going out to eat in restaurants in US. The red squiggle takes you to the first fortnight in April.

By middle of June people were starting to venture out a lot more to eat and dining-out rose closer to pre-pandemic levels by September.
Read 16 tweets
16 Sep
Ireland reached a milestone in the pandemic response today completing 1 million Covid19 tests.

An ungodly amount of work went into it all over 6 months, so I'll shine a spotlight on as many of those people as possible here.

And thank you.
Irish institutions stepped up immediately.

GAA opened their doors up and down the country, from Páirc Uí Chaoimh to Mick Neville Park.

Croke Park was the first drive-through testing center opened in Europe on March 17th.

The GAA made the logistics of testing a lot smoother.
Irish Universities and higher education jumped straight into action.

UCC, UL, NUIG, Athlone, Sligo, Letterkenny and Cork IT UL, facilitated reagents during the global reagent shortage.

Thanks to their effort, thousands of tests were completed.

Read 15 tweets
15 Sep
I've often spoke about regional trends with Covid19 and Influenza. What we are seeing right now is a good example of a regional trend.

14-day new cases per 100,000 in Western Europe:

Spain 278.8
France: 158.5
Belgium: 77.0
Netherlands: 73.6
Portugal: 64.1
UK: 52.9
Ireland: 45.8
Those numbers rising in unison is not a coincidence.

Northern Europe (Scandinavia):

14-day new cases per 100,000:

Norway: 28.4
Sweden: 22.2
Finland: 9.8

North Eastern Europe:

14-day new cases per 100,000:

Estonia: 24.4
Poland: 18.8
Lithuania: 17.2
Latvia: 4.2
There tend to be outliers in each region but for the most part infection rises and falls together within sub-regions of Europe.

Ireland are ironically the best-performing country in the region but really what I'm trying to say is the entirety of Western Europe is goosed.
Read 7 tweets
15 Sep
12 hospital admissions in the last 24 hours is the highest since May 27th.

13 fighting for their life in ICU is the highest since June 22nd and included a toddler admitted last week.

All the bickering on social media is just noise.

Here's my own little speech for everyone:
In recent weeks, multiple people who tested positive had over 50 close contacts in different parts of the country.


No government can ever control how many friends or family we spend time with, or watch every house for a party, that will always be a choice in a democracy.
Median number of close contacts is 4 ish, average is closer to 7.

What that means in plain English is most people in Ireland are behaving sensibly and following advice.

It also means a small minority of people are having ridiculous amounts of contacts, bringing the average up.
Read 14 tweets
11 Sep
There's some bizarre analysis floating around that everything is peachy.

No, it's not.

Infection is spreading to the elderly and if things don't change pronto, we're going to be back in deaths-every-day territory within the next fortnight.
The most vulnerable age group are the very elderly.

For most of the summer, they were being very well protected, to the point we saw these low numbers:

July and August *combined*:

Over 85 years old:

Cases: 21
Admitted to hospital: 3
21 cases in 2 months was great.

September, *so far*:

Over 85 years old:

Cases: 39
Admitted to hospital: 9

Statistically, around 10 of those are going to die soon, this week and the next few weeks, but that can easily rise to 15 depending on their underlying health.
Read 10 tweets

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