when people look back on the carnival misrule and absurdist pseudoscience of 2020, the thing that will strike them most is how "experts" and "leaders" either forgot or ignored that there were actual societies of actual people attached to their epidemiological joy rides.
consumed by their desires to be seen charging around valiantly on their white horses "doing something" on a grand scale, they ignored all science, sense, and costs.

lockdowns have been the most expensive 6 month political blunder in human history.
forgetting that there is a real world attached to these models and affected by these policies is simply unforgivable.

every last leader and expert who pushed this is unfit for their position.


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More from @boriquagato

28 Sep
some tweets, like dame helen mirren, gather grace & gravitas with age.

this one aged like a half eaten can of "frisky tuna surprise" i once left under the bed.

perhaps the true defining feature is how krugman has been wrong literally every single time he has opened his mouth. Image
the absolutely dazzling lack of US public school borne contagion has been just what many of us predicted.

k-12 has virtually none. college has "positive tests" but almost no symptomatic cases and hospitalization so low it's hard to even find one.

as you decide who to listen to next time, remember who was saying what back in august and july. remember which prominent economists were hysterically mistaking coincidence for causality and which internet felines and other #RationalGround ers said it was nothing to worry about
Read 4 tweets
28 Sep
back in the halcyon days of 2019, before the great politicization of epidemiology turned up into down and down into sideways, the WHO performed a survey of randomized, controlled trials on masks

1100 citations were winnowed to the 10 best for review.

masks looked ineffective. Image
of the top 9, only 2 showed any significant efficacy and of those 2, one was not statistically significant and the other only worked as a subset analysis from weeks 4-6 but did not work overall.

one was abandoned as being too imprecise.

read it here:

they do not even work as source protection.

the best evidence i have found shows that they make source infection worse even when N95s are used by trained surgeons.

now imagine a cloth mask on a 5 year old in a classroom.

Read 9 tweets
28 Sep
dear epidemiologists:

we would like our fear narrative back now please.


climate science.

if there is going to be one silver lining in the conflagration of horrendously bad mythology driven policy pretending to be science known as "2020" perhaps it will be a healthy distrust of "experts" and "models" that have never evidenced forward predictive ability. Image
perhaps it will be a healthy distrust of the quality of data used to make claims about "facts" and "trends" and about the motives of those whose budgets, livelihoods, and access to power depends upon having a crisis to point to. Image
Read 7 tweets
27 Sep
covid panics have become as regular & predictable as moon phases or cicadas

as we're coming back into the "mistaking more testing for more cases" part of the cycle, let's see if we can get ahead of the fear here:

the blue line is reported cases, green adjusts for more testing
as can be readily seen, the two tell very different stories.

the second peak from southern seasonality was actually much smaller than the first, not larger.

it topped out at 35% of prior peak, not 214% as the raw data misleadingly implies.
this is data from CTP, so it's not real day of case but rather day of report, so it has some significant data artifacts. we can mitigate this somewhat by smoothing to a 7 day moving average.

blue is "reported"

green is the real epidemiological trend.
Read 17 tweets
27 Sep
rarer than hen's teeth today are university students taking a principled stand for academic freedom and discourse

those with the facts on their side do not fear debate, they welcome it

demanding censorship of "wrongthink" is 99.99% accurate shibboleth for being wrong yourself.
the all too familiar refrains of cancel culture and crybullies hectoring and haranguing those who question their orthodoxy are the signs of dogmatic belief that its promulgators know must be shielded from scrutiny lest it be revealed in its lack of basis.
such suppression of dissent and vilification of any who would disagree is the mode of the coward and of the zealot, not of those who would inquire after truth.

it has no place in our centers of learning or our society as a whole

if cats wore hats, i'd tip mine to these authors.
Read 4 tweets
26 Sep
2020 is the year that science got tossed in the trash and replaced by politics and empty credentialism.

people and leaders claim they are "following the science" when they are actually going against it.

do not trust anything written this year

WHO pandemic guidelines 2019:
note that they explicitly say not to quarantine (lockdown) or contact trace or close borders.

some have said that this DOES support masks. i would argue that it really does not.

1. this was a moderate pandemic.

2. they state later on that there is no evidence to support masks
note that this is not "little evidence." it's "no evidence." and this is correct.

real, clinical outcomes studies showing that masks stop spread of respiratory viruses in the general public are conspicuously absent.

as this article in NEJM says, masks are mostly talismans.
Read 12 tweets

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