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X (Formerly Known As Numbersmuncher) Profile picture
@NumbersMuncher
Sep 13, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Fox News national poll (change from last):

Biden 51 (+2)
Trump 46 (+4)

A slight tightening since the convention.

-Trump leads men by 6, Biden leads women by 15.
-Trump leads whites by 11, Biden leads non-whites by 54.
-Biden leads by 6 in the battleground states.
I think this is a big reason that Trump's attacks on Biden aren't moving the needle - Biden's favorables are 16 net points higher.

Voters hated both Trump and Hillary in 2016, but Biden isn't Hillary no matter how much Trump tries to turn him into her. Image
After months of the Trump campaign saying that Biden is mentally unfit and needs performance enhancing drugs just to get through a speech, Americans still say Biden is more mentally sound to serve effectively as president than Trump. Image
Fox News poll: More Americans view the economy as excellent/good since COVID began and more view COVID as being under control than in August, which might account for the slight tightening in the race.

The question is how much more than moves in the next 51 days. ImageImage
Fox News poll: Trump leads Biden on the economy 51-46, but Biden leads in all other issues.

It's hard to argue that the riots are helping Biden, but they don't appear to be hurting him in a huge way as he leads Trump on who could do a better job with 'Law and Order' at 49-47. Image
Fox News poll: Trump job approval jumps to 48-51, up one point from their pre-2018 midterm poll (47-52).

Among registered voters, Trump jumped 7 net points since August - 44-54 to 48-51.

Men approve of Trump +10, women are -15.
Whites approve of Trump +12, non-whites are -49.

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More from @NumbersMuncher

X (Formerly Known As Numbersmuncher) Profile picture
Jun 26, 2022
CBS News Poll: Americans disapprove of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade by an 18 point margin, 59-41.

Women disapprove by a 34 point margin, 67-33.
It remains to be seen what impact the Supreme Court's decision will have on the midterms, but it has (for now) motivated Democrats to vote in much higher numbers than Republicans.

Independents are more likely to vote than Republicans, but more are also now less likely to vote.
CBS News Poll: 57% of Americans believe that the Supreme Court will now go after same sex marriage while 55% believe they will limit access to birth control.

Hard to argue with them given that Thomas called for it, but not as clear that a case could get 5 votes. We'll find out.
Read 4 tweets
X (Formerly Known As Numbersmuncher) Profile picture
Feb 7, 2022
If you insist that students need masks in school, you should not be taking your mask off in a school for any reason.

This isn't difficult - if it's too dangerous for kids to learn without a mask then it's way too dangerous for you to take yours off for a photo op.
I thought masks were helpful early on and still think they have some marginal benefits when you're in a crowd for short periods of time (stores, etc).

But there are studies showing that masks on students in a classroom all day do next to nothing... it's well past time to stop.
Have you been around young kids sitting in a classroom for 6+ hours a day? They are not wearing high quality masks and they are absolutely not wearing them properly.

It's been two years - we know so much more... we should start acting like it and stop masking kids out of fear.
Read 4 tweets
X (Formerly Known As Numbersmuncher) Profile picture
Sep 13, 2021
CNN Poll: 73% of Americans have received at least one dose of the COVID vaccine while 27% have not.

88% of Democrats, 68% of independents, and 60% of Republicans have done so.

35% of Republicans say they will not get vaccinated, compared to 25% of independents and 8% of Dems.
CNN Poll: 88% of college graduates have received at least one dose of the COVID vaccine while just 64% of non-college grads have.

87% of those who approve of Biden's job have received at least one dose against 57% of those who disapprove of Biden's job.
CNN Poll: 57% of parents say that all children attending school in-person should wear a facemask while 43% say no.

Overall that number is 63-37 when non-parents are included.
Read 5 tweets
X (Formerly Known As Numbersmuncher) Profile picture
Sep 11, 2021
This article from the Federalist is the greatest thing they've ever written.

"Supreme Court has upheld [mandatory school vaccines] as constitutional for over a century, and only the political fringes believe there ought to be a debate about such matters."
thefederalist.com/2015/02/03/the…
Every piece of this article is simply amazing from the Federalist:

"But that doesn’t mean there are no tradeoffs for such a decision (refusing vaccinations). If you choose not to vaccinate, private and public institutions should be able to discriminate on that basis."
The Federalist actually said that the government should withhold child tax credits for those who refuse to vaccinate!

"The Australian experience on vaccines, where they tied access to family tax benefits to immunization, illustrates that carrots can be quite effective."
Read 5 tweets
X (Formerly Known As Numbersmuncher) Profile picture
Aug 27, 2021
Read 4 tweets
X (Formerly Known As Numbersmuncher) Profile picture
Aug 26, 2021
UK Study: "There was no evidence that face coverings, 2-metre social distancing or stopping children mixing was associated with lower odds of COVID-19 [rates]... in the school. Primary school staff found teaching challenging during COVID-19 restrictions"

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
One of the things about "following the science" is that you have to be willing to change what the data warrants.

Masks in schools (esp elementary) have almost no impact unless they are N95s, and younger kids end up playing with them to the point where they are a detriment.
We know a lot more this year than we did last year and if the data shows masks don't help a lot when kids are stationary for 6 hours, there's no need to force it just for a false sense of security.

My wife teaches kindergarten and I can tell you that they are absolutely no help.
Read 4 tweets

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