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Louie Peters Profile picture
@_LouiePeters
Sep 13, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
From @KelvinYang7's two independent sources (one of which is a supplier's stock offering filing) linked below, I now see very high probability that Tesla is preparing for a final Model Y production rate of 450k at GF3 (together with Model 3 at 200k).
It will obviously take time to ramp to target capacity which may not be hit until late 2021.
Tesla will also have to ramp demand otherwise it may not pull the trigger to ramp from 2 to 3 shifts.
It also needs to ramp cell supply (fortunately battery day is now very soon!)
When the same precise information comes from two independent sources, one of which is a stock offering filing (with high repercussions for false information), then I believe it.

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More from @_LouiePeters

Louie Peters Profile picture
Dec 1, 2024
Self driving cars have had a lot of false starts but both Waymo and Tesla FSD v13, with very different architectures and methods have made huge leaps recently and look to finally be on the home straight of the “March of 9s” towards achieving human level Robotaxi driving safety and convenience. But is the final stretch 4 months or 4 years away and will data, compute, sensor, human developer, economic or architecture bottlenecks get in the way?
1)
First - why do self driving cars matter? 1) Traffic Deaths matter!, 2) Electric Vehicle acceleration (equals Climate Change prevention, National Energy Security and improved trade balance), 3) Transport freedom.
1) 1.2 million people die in traffic accidents each year and over 10 million suffer life changing impact (and many young people are impacted relative to most diseases). 2) Robotaxi EVs will have 5x + utilisation vs passenger owned cars and are an economic no brainer to scale - they will massively accelerate replacing global car fleet fossil fuel miles driven with electric miles driven. 3) Robotaxi EVs once scaled should cost 2-4x less per mile than owning your own car - which is particularly valuable to those that can’t afford cars today and whose freedom is reduced by lack of transport.
2)
Where does each company lead?
Waymo leads in: Driverless safety and accident rate, regulatory approval, pilot rollout of full robotaxi, Sensor suite capability and redundancy
Tesla leads in: Data access, data mining pipeline, car fleet size, geographic reach, speed of progress, Driving convenience, scalability, economics, end to end Deep Learning, training GPU cluster access.
3)
Read 20 tweets
Louie Peters Profile picture
Oct 14, 2021
1) It is sad how many people are against investment in space launch technology.
The narrative “Space is just a playground for billionaires” is not helped by those who focussed on sending themselves to orbit as an end goal, but why is space tech important?
2) More broadly, space launch tech is innovating towards a 100x reduction in launch costs and increasing the ease of access to space.

Why does this matter?
3)
A) Disaster preparedness; With cheaper & quicker access to space we have better odds of addressing issues such as approaching asteroids & satellite wipeouts from solar storms. This is the same as investing in pandemic preparedness ahead of an unknown future event.
Read 9 tweets
Louie Peters Profile picture
Oct 13, 2021
Analysts have an irrational urge to be “conservative” when forecasting the future, as if you are only wrong if your forecasts are too high.
The future is uncertain, so acknowledge the range of possibilities.
But try to be accurate, don’t try to be conservative.
Technology production volume vs cost curves & adoption speed once economic parity is reached are all well understood.
Forecasting absurdly slow rates of clean tech price declines & deployment growth deters investment in them & prevents policymakers supporting them as the solution
Thread on what drives technology production costs to decline with cumulative production volume:
Read 4 tweets
Louie Peters Profile picture
Mar 28, 2021
Some thoughts on Self Driving Cars:

This is unsolved tech & will be a radically new product with very different cost structures vs current options; the future is highly uncertain.
This justifies a huge disparity in opinions but many may have too high certainty in their views.
Key questions:

1) Will self driving cars require 2x or 20x average human safety to achieve regulatory approval in a given jurisdiction?
2) Will it take 1 year or 20 years to get to this level of safety?
3) Is the Tesla-like deep learning heavy, hardware lite, incremental progress on driver assistance, general solution approach best? Or is the Waymo-like deep learning lite, hardware heavy, moonshot leap, geofenced approach better?
Read 7 tweets
Louie Peters Profile picture
Oct 25, 2020
1) Tesla's Autopilot driver assist product is now largely feature complete, but how much further does it have to progress to achieve reliability 3-5x greater than the average human & allow removal of human supervision?
...
2) This is the March of 9s.
Tesla’s self driving strategy from the start was chosen & optimised for this moment now; putting a system & infrastructure in place without data or hardware bottlenecks to allow largely automated progress for a feature complete AP on the March of 9s.
3) But how far do they have left to March?
Is Tesla 99.9% there, does it have 9,000x further to go or its it 33% there? It’s all a matter of perspective.
And most importantly does this all mean is Tesla 1 year away or 10 years away from Robotaxi level reliability?
Read 36 tweets
Louie Peters Profile picture
Oct 24, 2020
Tesla FSD Beta Videos Thread:
Read 25 tweets

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