shananalla Profile picture
13 Sep, 19 tweets, 13 min read
Tamil Nadu provides detailed information on its fatalities in its daily bulletin
I scraped that data (Jul-1 to Sep-10).
This thread contains a preliminary analysis, and a comparison with Karnataka/Odisha (at the end) @epigiri
mean age: 63.1 yrs

Very clear clustering in the 60-80 yrs range
The Mean age has increased significantly from July-Sep

Male : 71.9%
Female: 27.6%

Fraction of Males in daily deaths has increased slowly over time
63.7% of deaths had co-morbidities
36.2% of deaths had NO co-morbidities

Common ones,

Diabetes : 41%
Hypertension : 29%
Kidney disease: 6%
Admission-Death interval
The time between a patient's admission to hospital and death is a measure of quality of hospital-care as well as early-detectionn

46% of TN's deaths occur within 2 days of admission
mean Admission-Death interval ~ 5.4 days
The distribution has a long tail (some patients spend several weeks in hosp.)

it has risen significantly from July-Sep
Death-Reporting inteval
A quantitative measure of size of TN's reporting "backlog". Its the time between death and actual reporting in state bulletin

Mean ~ 2 days

It has fallen from July-Sep
Chennai vs Rest of TN (RoTN):

Chennai's mean age of fatalities is consistently higher than RoTN

CHN : 65.1 yrs
RoTN: 61.4 yrs
Fraction of Males is slightly lower in Chennai

CHN : 70%
RoTN: 72%

A much higher fraction of Chennai's deaths had co-morbidities

CHN : 72%
RoTN: 60%
Admission-Death interval
Consistently higher in Chennai, corresponding to availability of better hospital care in the capital

CHN : 6.7 days
RoTN: 4.8 days
Death-Reporting interval

Chennai reports deaths more prompty vs RoTN

CHN : 1.7 day
RoTN: 2.2 days
Comparison with Karnataka and odisha:

- TN has the highest mean-age of deaths, OD lowest
- OD has the highest fraction of Male deaths
- TN's deaths with no comorb. are higher
- TN's A-D inteval is higher than KA
- TN's reporting lag is lower

One important caveat here is that TN and KAR are in different stages of their epidemics, and most of KAR's metrics (mean age,A-D interval,R-D interval) have improved from Aug to Sep.

- Mean age of deaths is rising with time in all 3 states
One thing thats hard to miss is the very high fraction of diabetics among deaths in all 3 states. Why does diabetes increase risk of death so much? @anupampom @amitsurg @giridar100 @drcheruvarun
Bulletins ->
Source code ->…
Parsed TN deaths dataset (CSV format) ->…
Tamil Nadu reported 518 deaths on July 22, including 444 deaths from its "backlog" (mostly from Chennai city)

No details were provided for these 444 deaths in Chennai, so they were excluded from the above analysis (clip from July 22 TN bulletin)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with shananalla

shananalla Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @shananalla

12 Sep
Karnataka provides very detailed information on all its discharges and deaths in its daily bulletin

I scraped that data (from Jul-14 to Sep-10), and this thread contains a detailed analysis #CoronavirusInIndia

This follows the pattern of Odisha's analysis, but is more detailed
To avoid clutter, the following conventions are used
KAR: Karnataka (all districts)
BLR: Bengaluru
ROK: Rest of Karnataka
From the Patient no.,we can calculate the date of confirmation. This allows us to estimate the interval between Confirmation-Discharge
- Distribution is bimodal (2 peaks)
- Peak at ~7 days (due to mild/asymp.)
- Peak at 14-16 days (due to severe/symp. )
Read 37 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!